首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
文章检索
  按 检索   检索词:      
出版年份:   被引次数:   他引次数: 提示:输入*表示无穷大
  收费全文   8276篇
  免费   168篇
  国内免费   37篇
管理学   386篇
民族学   26篇
人口学   145篇
丛书文集   244篇
理论方法论   133篇
综合类   2000篇
社会学   88篇
统计学   5459篇
  2024年   6篇
  2023年   36篇
  2022年   68篇
  2021年   69篇
  2020年   137篇
  2019年   242篇
  2018年   267篇
  2017年   508篇
  2016年   181篇
  2015年   198篇
  2014年   283篇
  2013年   2281篇
  2012年   650篇
  2011年   318篇
  2010年   247篇
  2009年   287篇
  2008年   283篇
  2007年   286篇
  2006年   248篇
  2005年   267篇
  2004年   211篇
  2003年   201篇
  2002年   187篇
  2001年   172篇
  2000年   154篇
  1999年   100篇
  1998年   90篇
  1997年   63篇
  1996年   56篇
  1995年   48篇
  1994年   37篇
  1993年   39篇
  1992年   37篇
  1991年   30篇
  1990年   34篇
  1989年   28篇
  1988年   16篇
  1987年   18篇
  1986年   8篇
  1985年   12篇
  1984年   15篇
  1983年   17篇
  1982年   7篇
  1981年   6篇
  1980年   7篇
  1979年   7篇
  1978年   6篇
  1977年   6篇
  1976年   3篇
  1975年   4篇
排序方式: 共有8481条查询结果,搜索用时 62 毫秒
101.
In this paper, the reliability of a system is discussed when the strength of the system and the stress imposed on it are independent, non-identical exponentiated Pareto distributed random variables. Different point estimations and interval estimations are proposed. The point estimators obtained are maximum likelihood, uniformly minimum variance unbiased and Bayesian estimators. The interval estimations obtained are approximate, exact, bootstrap-p and bootstrap-t confidence intervals and Bayesian credible interval. Different methods and the corresponding confidence intervals are compared using Monte-carlo simulations.  相似文献   
102.
A major focus of India's ongoing policy debate over labour market flexibilization has been the statutory requirement that firms employing 100 or more workers cannot dismiss employees without prior government permission. The case for repealing that requirement (or greatly increasing the workforce threshold) is notably underpinned by Basu, Fields and Debgupta (2009). Here, the author challenges their particular theoretical argument for hiring and firing at will based on the voluntary signing of contracts, demonstrating that their general policy conclusion is logically unsustainable even within the framework of that model. The case for labour market flexibilization through voluntary contracting thus remains unfounded.  相似文献   
103.
In reliability theory, risk analysis, renewal processes and actuarial studies, the residual lifetimes data play an important essential role in studying the conditional tail of the lifetime data. In this paper, based on some observed ordered residual Weibull data, we introduce different prediction methods for obtaining prediction intervals (PIs) of future residual lifetimes including likelihood, Wald, moments, parametric bootstrap, and highest conditional methods. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the performances of the so obtained PIs and one data analysis is performed for illustration purposes.  相似文献   
104.
In this paper, a new generalization of alpha-skew-normal distribution is considered. Some properties of this distribution, which is denoted by GASN(α, λ), including moments, maximum likelihood estimation of parameters, and some other properties are studied. Finally, using a real data set, we show that our new distribution is the best-fitted distribution for the used data among normal, skew normal, alpha-skew-normal, and skew-bimodal-normal distributions.  相似文献   
105.
In a smoothing spline model with unknown change-points, the choice of the smoothing parameter strongly influences the estimation of the change-point locations and the function at the change-points. In a tumor biology example, where change-points in blood flow in response to treatment were of interest, choosing the smoothing parameter based on minimizing generalized cross-validation (GCV) gave unsatisfactory estimates of the change-points. We propose a new method, aGCV, that re-weights the residual sum of squares and generalized degrees of freedom terms from GCV. The weight is chosen to maximize the decrease in the generalized degrees of freedom as a function of the weight value, while simultaneously minimizing aGCV as a function of the smoothing parameter and the change-points. Compared with GCV, simulation studies suggest that the aGCV method yields improved estimates of the change-point and the value of the function at the change-point.  相似文献   
106.
This paper considers the design of accelerated life test (ALT) sampling plans under Type I progressive interval censoring with random removals. We assume that the lifetime of products follows a Weibull distribution. Two levels of constant stress higher than the use condition are used. The sample size and the acceptability constant that satisfy given levels of producer's risk and consumer's risk are found. In particular, the optimal stress level and the allocation proportion are obtained by minimizing the generalized asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters. Furthermore, for validation purposes, a Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to assess the true probability of acceptance for the derived sampling plans.  相似文献   
107.
In this paper, we consider simultaneous confidence intervals for all-pairwise comparisons of treatment means in a one-way layout under heteroscedasticity. Two kinds of simultaneous intervals are provided based on the fiducial generalized pivotal quantities of the interest parameters. We prove that they both have asymptotically correct coverage. Simulation results and an example are also reported. It is concluded from calculational evidence that the second kind of simultaneous confidence intervals, which we provide, performs better than existing methods.  相似文献   
108.
109.
For the hierarchical Poisson and gamma model, we calculate the Bayes posterior estimator of the parameter of the Poisson distribution under Stein's loss function which penalizes gross overestimation and gross underestimation equally and the corresponding Posterior Expected Stein's Loss (PESL). We also obtain the Bayes posterior estimator of the parameter under the squared error loss and the corresponding PESL. Moreover, we obtain the empirical Bayes estimators of the parameter of the Poisson distribution with a conjugate gamma prior by two methods. In numerical simulations, we have illustrated: The two inequalities of the Bayes posterior estimators and the PESLs; the moment estimators and the Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLEs) are consistent estimators of the hyperparameters; the goodness-of-fit of the model to the simulated data. The numerical results indicate that the MLEs are better than the moment estimators when estimating the hyperparameters. Finally, we exploit the attendance data on 314 high school juniors from two urban high schools to illustrate our theoretical studies.  相似文献   
110.
In this article, a system that consists of n independent components each having two dependent subcomponents (Ai, Bi), i = 1, …, n is considered. The system is assumed to compose of components that have two correlated subcomponents (Ai, Bi), and functions iff both systems of subcomponents A1, A2, …, An and B1, B2, …, Bn work under certain structural rules. The expressions for reliability and mean time to failure of such systems are obtained. A sufficient condition to compare two systems of bivariate components in terms of stochastic ordering is also presented.  相似文献   
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号