比较文学视阈下的文学与自然科学交叉研究方法探析

近代以来,在科学技术对现代文明影响愈加深远的趋势之下,文学与自然科学的互渗与交锋变得更加显著,现从两者的差异性、互渗性、交锋情况进行比较研究.     

农村妇女参政权益及其法律保障

对“农村妇女权益调查”的统计分析发现,我国农村仍存在妇女参与村民自治的积极性不高、权利意识较淡薄且从众心理较强、农村群众普遍不认同女性的管理能力等问题。为发展农村基层民主。保障我国农村妇女参政权益,应在相关法律中增加女性候选人及女性代表的具体比例以及补选措施等相关规定,补充规定各级妇女联合会对妇女参政的监督机制,增补对妇女参政比例的保障监督机制。     

Collapsibility for Directed Acyclic Graphs

Abstract.  Collapsibility means that the same statistical result of interest can be obtained before and after marginalization over some variables. In this paper, we discuss three kinds of collapsibility for directed acyclic graphs (DAGs): estimate collapsibility, conditional independence collapsibility and model collapsibility. Related to collapsibility, we discuss removability of variables from a DAG. We present conditions for these three different kinds of collapsibility and relationships among them. We give algorithms to find a minimum variable set containing a variable subset of interest onto which a statistical result is collapsible.     

Unifying CRM and EWOC designs for phase I cancer clinical trials

The main goal of phase I cancer clinical trials is to determine the highest dose of a new therapy associated with an acceptable level of toxicity for the use in a subsequent phase II trial. The continual reassessment method (CRM) [O’Quigley, J., Pepe, M., Fisher, L., 1990. Continual reassessment method: a practical design for phase I clinical trials in cancer. Biometrics 46, 33–48] and escalation with overdose control (EWOC) [Babb, J., Rogatko, A., Zacks, S., 1998. Cancer phase I clinical trials: efficient dose escalation with overdose control. Statist. Med. 17 (10), 1103–1120] are two model-based designs used for phase I cancer clinical trials. A few modifications of the (original) CRM and EWOC have been made by many authors. In this paper, we show how CRM and EWOC can be unified and present a hybrid design. We study the characteristics of the approach of the hybrid design. The comparisons of the three designs (CRM, EWOC, and the hybrid design) are presented by convergence rates and overdose proportions. The simulation results show that the hybrid design generally has faster convergence rates than EWOC and smaller overdose proportions than CRM, especially when the true maximum tolerated dose (MTD) is above the mid-level of the dose range considered. The performance of these three designs is also evaluated in terms of sensitivity to outliers.     

On construction of asymptotically correct confidence intervals

In this paper we discuss constructing confidence intervals based on asymptotic generalized pivotal quantities (AGPQs). An AGPQ associates a distribution with the corresponding parameter, and then an asymptotically correct confidence interval can be derived directly from this distribution like Bayesian or fiducial interval estimates. We provide two general procedures for constructing AGPQs. We also present several examples to show that AGPQs can yield new confidence intervals with better finite-sample behaviors than traditional methods.     

中国证券业总产出和增加值测算研究

 金融机构总产出和增加值的测算是一项基础性的研究工作。与传统测算方法不同,本文借鉴经济合作和发展组织（OECD）提出的使用者成本法,把证券业视为生产性服务活动,并结合我国的实际情况,从服务的角度初步提出了我国证券业总产出和增加值的测算框架。并提出了未来研究改进的方向。     

Using Bayesian graphical models to model biases in observational studies and to combine multiple sources of data: application to low birth weight and water disinfection by-products

Summary.  Data in the social, behavioural and health sciences frequently come from observational studies instead of controlled experiments. In addition to random errors, observational data typically contain additional sources of uncertainty such as missing values, unmeasured confounders and selection biases. Also, the research question is often different from that which a particular source of data was designed to answer, and so not all relevant variables are measured. As a result, multiple sources of data are often necessary to identify the biases and to inform about different aspects of the research question. Bayesian graphical models provide a coherent way to connect a series of local submodels, based on different data sets, into a global unified analysis. We present a unified modelling framework that will account for multiple biases simultaneously and give more accurate parameter estimates than standard approaches. We illustrate our approach by analysing data from a study of water disinfection by-products and adverse birth outcomes in the UK.     

古今文学演变与中国文学史研究

古今文学演变与中国文学史研究之间的内在关联,大体可以从四个层面来描述:"中国文学史"这样一种著述方式是伴随着古今文学的转型而产生的;现代的纯文学观深刻影响了20世纪90年代之前的"中国文学史"撰写;对古今文学之异的清醒认识是编年体文学史兴起的契机;中国文学史研究中的"古今"问题的核心是如何处理主体性与客观性的关系.我们的讨论即从这四个方面展开.     

文学古今演变的临界点之辨

中国文学古今演变是一个富有活力的学术命题,自复旦大学章培恒教授首倡以来,相关的学术探索新见迭出,取得了不俗的成绩.     

社会工作视角下农村"留守儿童"问题的分析与对策

近年来,农村“留守儿童”问题倍受关注。研究表明,农村“留守儿童”在生理及心理、自我认同、自我控制等方面存在很多问题。这一问题能否得到很好解决,不仅关系着孩子们的身心成长,更关系着和谐社会的建立。通过社会工作的角度开展个案、小组、家庭、学校与社区以及社会政策的综合干预方法,来对当前解决农村“留守儿童”问题提供一个新的视角。