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161.
The gist of the quickest change-point detection problem is to detect the presence of a change in the statistical behavior of a series of sequentially made observations, and do so in an optimal detection-speed-versus-“false-positive”-risk manner. When optimality is understood either in the generalized Bayesian sense or as defined in Shiryaev's multi-cyclic setup, the so-called Shiryaev–Roberts (SR) detection procedure is known to be the “best one can do”, provided, however, that the observations’ pre- and post-change distributions are both fully specified. We consider a more realistic setup, viz. one where the post-change distribution is assumed known only up to a parameter, so that the latter may be misspecified. The question of interest is the sensitivity (or robustness) of the otherwise “best” SR procedure with respect to a possible misspecification of the post-change distribution parameter. To answer this question, we provide a case study where, in a specific Gaussian scenario, we allow the SR procedure to be “out of tune” in the way of the post-change distribution parameter, and numerically assess the effect of the “mistuning” on Shiryaev's (multi-cyclic) Stationary Average Detection Delay delivered by the SR procedure. The comprehensive quantitative robustness characterization of the SR procedure obtained in the study can be used to develop the respective theory as well as to provide a rational for practical design of the SR procedure. The overall qualitative conclusion of the study is an expected one: the SR procedure is less (more) robust for less (more) contrast changes and for lower (higher) levels of the false alarm risk. 相似文献
162.
Guoping Zeng 《统计学通讯:模拟与计算》2017,46(10):7744-7760
Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistic (KS) is a standard measure in credit scoring. Currently, there are three computational methods of KS: method with equal-width binning, method with equal-size binning and method without binning. This paper compares the three methods in three aspects: Values, Rank Ordering of Scores and Geometrical Way. The computational results on the German Credit Data show that only the method without binning can produce a unique value of KS. It is further proved analytically that the method without binning yields the maximum value of KS among the three methods. The computational results also show that only the method with equal-size binning can be used to evaluate rank ordering of scores. Moreover, it is proved that all the three methods can be used to calculate KS in a geometric way. 相似文献
163.
In this article, we perform Bayesian estimation of stochastic volatility models with heavy tail distributions using Metropolis adjusted Langevin (MALA) and Riemman manifold Langevin (MMALA) methods. We provide analytical expressions for the application of these methods, assess the performance of these methodologies in simulated data, and illustrate their use on two financial time series datasets. 相似文献
164.
In this paper, the two-parameter Pareto distribution is considered and the problem of prediction of order statistics from a future sample and that of its geometric mean are discussed. The Bayesian approach is applied to construct predictors based on observed k-record values for the cases when the future sample size is fixed and when it is random. Several Bayesian prediction intervals are derived. Finally, the results of a simulation study and a numerical example are presented for illustrating all the inferential procedures developed here. 相似文献
165.
166.
In this article, based on generalized order statistics from a family of proportional hazard rate model, we use a statistical test to generate a class of preliminary test estimators and shrinkage preliminary test estimators for the proportionality parameter. These estimators are compared under Pitman measure of closeness (PMC) as well as MSE criteria. Although the PMC suffers from non transitivity, in the first class of estimators, it has the transitivity property and we obtain the Pitman-closest estimator. Analytical and graphical methods are used to show the range of parameter in which preliminary test and shrinkage preliminary test estimators perform better than their competitor estimators. Results reveal that when the prior information is not too far from its real value, the proposed estimators are superior based on both mentioned criteria. 相似文献
167.
Chaitra H. Nagaraja 《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2017,46(10):4809-4823
The Gini coefficient is used to measure inequality in populations. However, shifts in the population distribution may affect subgroups differently. Consequently, it can be informative to examine inequality separately for these segments. Consider an independently and identically distributed sample split based on ranking and compute the Gini coefficient for each partition. These coefficients, calculated from post-stratified data, are not functions of U-statistics. Therefore, previous theoretical and methodological results cannot be applied. In this article, the asymptotic joint distribution is derived for the partitioned coefficients and bootstrap methods for inference are developed. Finally, an application to per capita income across census tracts is examined. 相似文献
168.
Mohsen Rezapour 《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2017,46(11):5595-5611
Progressively Type-II censored conditionally N-ordered statistics (PCCOS-N) arising from iid random vectors Xi = (X1i, X2i, …, Xip), i = 1, 2…, n, were investigated by Bairamov (2006), with respect to the magnitudes of N(Xi), i = 1, 2, …, n, where N( · ) is a p-variate measurable function defined on the support set of X1 satisfying certain regularity conditions and N(Xi) denotes the lifetime of the random vector Xi, i = 1, …, n. Under the PCCOS-N sampling scheme, n independent units are placed on a life-test and after the ith failure, Ri (i = 1, …, m) of the surviving units are removed at random from the remaining observations. In this article, we consider PCCOS-N arising from a vector with identical as well as non identical dependent components, jointly distributed according to a unified elliptically contoured copula (PCCOSDUECC-N). Results established here contain the previous results as particular cases. Illustrative examples and simulation studies show that PCCOSDUECC-N enables us to analyze the lifetime of several systems, including repairable systems and systems with standby components, more efficiently than PCCOS-N. 相似文献
169.
170.
This paper treats the problem of stochastic comparisons for the extreme order statistics arising from heterogeneous beta distributions. Some sufficient conditions involved in majorization-type partial orders are provided for comparing the extreme order statistics in the sense of various magnitude orderings including the likelihood ratio order, the reversed hazard rate order, the usual stochastic order, and the usual multivariate stochastic order. The results established here strengthen and extend those including Kochar and Xu (2007), Mao and Hu (2010), Balakrishnan et al. (2014), and Torrado (2015). A real application in system assembly and some numerical examples are also presented to illustrate the theoretical results. 相似文献