农村养老制度对家庭人力资本积累影响研究述评

自新增长理论形成以来，将养老保障制度与人力资本积累相联系进行研究成为社会保障、社会学等领域的研究热点之一。无论是国外的理论研究还是实证研究均表明，养老保障制度对于人力资本积累的影响作用是十分明显的。但我国目前理论界直接对养老保障制度与人力资本积累之间关系展开研究的尚属少数。因此，关于养老保障制度对家庭人力资本积累的影响研究的广度和深度均有待发掘。     

菲利普斯曲线在中国的有效性研究

从基本的菲利普斯曲线理论出发,提出了新的适应性预期模型,并以此为基础建立附加预期的菲利普斯曲线方程,进而估计出我国近年来的自然失业率水平,由此证明了菲利普斯曲线在我国的有效性,并描述了预期因素对实际通货膨胀水平的影响。最后结合实证分析结果提出解决我国通货膨胀和失业问题的建议,如保证货币政策的连贯性、加强信息披露、解决结构性失业问题等。     

A note on the mean residual life of a coherent system with a cold standby component

In this paper, we investigate the effect of a cold standby component on the mean residual life (MRL) of a system. When the system fails, a cold standby component is immediately put in operation. We particularly focus on the coherent systems in which, after putting the standby component into operation, the failure of the system is due to the next component failure. For these systems, we define MRL functions and obtain their explicit expressions. Also some stochastic ordering results are provided. Such systems include k-out-of-n systems. Hence, our results extend some results in literature.     

Some properties of Lin–Wong divergence on the past lifetime data

Measures of statistical divergence are used to assess mutual similarities between distributions of multiple variables through a variety of methodologies including Shannon entropy and Csiszar divergence. Modified measures of statistical divergence are introduced throughout the present article. Those modified measures are related to the Lin–Wong (LW) divergence applied on the past lifetime data. Accordingly, the relationship between Fisher information and the LW divergence measure was explored when applied on the past lifetime data. Throughout this study, a number of relations are proposed between various assessment methods which implement the Jensen–Shannon, Jeffreys, and Hellinger divergence measures. Also, relations between the LW measure and the Kullback–Leibler (KL) measures for past lifetime data were examined. Furthermore, the present study discusses the relationship between the proposed ordering scheme and the distance interval between LW and KL measures under certain conditions.     

制造系统生产单元碳排放核算模型

制造业是我国国民经济的支柱产业，但也是环境污染物排放的主要来源、能源消耗主体和温室气体排放大户。制造系统高能耗、高物耗、高碳排放的加工过程是造成制造业碳排放量大的重要原因。生产单元作为制造系统的加工的主体，其碳排放量的核算是确定整个制造系统乃至制造业碳排放总量的关键。本文首先对生产单元的原材料、电能、辅助物料及废屑处理所引起的碳排放进行分析，确定生产单元的碳排放源；其次，产品合格率的不同会造成生产单元输入及输出的成品/半成品数量的差异，进而影响生产单元单位产品的碳排放量，在此基础上，综合考虑了原材料、电能、辅助物料及废屑处理的碳排放情况，构建了给定工艺流程下生产单元碳排放核算模型。最后，结合一汽车排气装置加工实例，分别核算加工过程中九个生产单元的碳排放量，验证了模型的可行性。     

Spatial Distribution of Flood Risk and Quality of Spatial Management: Case Study in Odra Valley,Poland

This article presents methodological solutions aimed at presenting the spatial distribution of flood risk and quality of spatial management (land use), indicating both those areas used reasonably and those requiring modification. The purpose was to identify key risk areas and risk‐free areas from the point of view of human security and activity on the floodplains, based on the examples of the vicinities of Wroclaw and Raciborz in the Odra Valley, Poland. Due to recent climate change, Poland has suffered the effects of severe flooding (e.g., 1997, 2001, 2010). The analyses conducted were motivated by the European Parliament and Council's recently implemented Directive 2007/60/WE, as well as by the demand for studies for local spatial planning. The analysis indicates that reasonably developed areas do not account for the majority of those studied, making up 36% of the Wroclaw area and 15% of the Raciborz area.     

Estimation and simulation of conditional hazard function in the quasi-associated framework when the observations are linked via a functional single-index structure

We consider the estimation of the conditional hazard function of a scalar response variable Y given a Hilbertian random variable X when the observations are linked via a single-index structure in the quasi-associated framework. We establish the pointwise almost complete convergence and the uniform almost complete convergence (with the rate) of the estimate of this model. A simulation is given to illustrate the good behavior in the practice of our methodology.     

Kumaraswamy Marshall-Olkin Exponential distribution

In this paper, a new generalization of the Kumaraswamy distribution namely, the Kumaraswamy Marshall-Olkin Exponential distribution (KwMOE) is introduced and studied. Various properties are explored. The structural analysis includes various aspects such as limiting behaviour, shape properties, moments, quantiles, mean deviation, Renyi entropy, order statistics and stochastic ordering. Some useful characterizations of the family are also obtained. The method of maximum likelihood is used to estimate the model parameters. Monte Carlo simulation study is being conducted. An application to a real data set is presented for illustrative purposes.     

Statistical considerations in clinical trial design with event-free survival as the primary efficacy endpoint

In late-phase confirmatory clinical trials in the oncology field, time-to-event (TTE) endpoints are commonly used as primary endpoints for establishing the efficacy of investigational therapies. Among these TTE endpoints, overall survival (OS) is always considered as the gold standard. However, OS data can take years to mature, and its use for measurement of efficacy can be confounded by the use of post-treatment rescue therapies or supportive care. Therefore, to accelerate the development process and better characterize the treatment effect of new investigational therapies, other TTE endpoints such as progression-free survival and event-free survival (EFS) are applied as primary efficacy endpoints in some confirmatory trials, either as a surrogate for OS or as a direct measure of clinical benefits. For evaluating novel treatments for acute myeloid leukemia, EFS has been gradually recognized as a direct measure of clinical benefits. However, the application of an EFS endpoint is still controversial mainly due to the debate surrounding definition of treatment failure (TF) events. In this article, we investigate the EFS endpoint with the most conservative definition for the timing of TF, which is Day 1 since randomization. Specifically, the corresponding non-proportional hazard pattern of the EFS endpoint is investigated with both analytical and numerical approaches.     

初次收入分配对我国居民旅游消费影响研究

文章选取初次分配工资分配率、城镇居民基尼系数、各收入阶层旅游消费占比作为分析指标，经分析研究所得结论为：低、中收入阶层旅游消费占比与分配率负相关，分配率所代表的初次收入分配总量性影响对中收入阶层旅游消费影响较大，中、高收入阶层旅游消费占比都与城镇居民基尼系数正相关，其中城镇居民基尼系数代表的初次收入分配结构性影响对高收入阶层旅游消费影响较大；并针对各阶层的特殊性对各收入阶层旅游消费发展提出相应政策建议.