论概率安全评价中的组织风险因素

核电站组织风险已经成为核电站安全运行重要的影响因素,在概率安全评价中考虑组织风险因素是核电安全研究的重要课题。文章在建立组织风险因素与PSA之间转换的概念框架的基础上,对组织风险因素进行分类。分类后的组织风险因素受人员行为形成因子的影响,其影响在人因可靠性分析中进行分析。计算和评估这些人员行为形成因子对于事故后操纵员的影响可以计算组织因素对核电站安全的影响。     

基于发展新理念的粮食类家庭农场成长绩效测评研究

基于发展新理念对粮食类家庭农场成长绩效的评价指标进行理论遴选后,借助专家评审和鉴别力分析进行指标筛选,构建了具有较高信度和效度的评价指标体系。以华北平原五省的453户粮食类家庭农场为样本,采用AHP-模糊综合评价模型,对指标体系做了应用研究。结果表明：粮食类家庭农场成长绩效虽在总体上处于中等偏上水平,但个体间存在一定的成长绩效差异;经济绩效整体表现良好,创新绩效却较低。因此,应引导粮食类家庭农场平衡性成长、制定精准扶持方略和建立成长绩效监测体系。     

新型农业经营主体的经营绩效与差异分析——基于农村固定观察点的数据调查

新型农业经营主体的经营绩效关系到其可持续发展。采用农村固定观察点对我国各省区新型农业经营主体的调查数据,运用随机前沿分析法,对不同类型的经营主体的经营绩效进行分析,并进一步分析新型农业经营主体的差异性。结果表明：相比小农户而言,新型农业经营主体的经营绩效相对较高,但是其平均绩效还有很大的改善空间;新型农业经营主体面临融资难和人才缺乏的问题,且该问题在农民专业合作社中最为突出;我国家庭农场的经营绩效在三种新型农业经营主体中是最高的,其次是农业（龙头）企业,最后是农民专业合作社。对此,提出应完善土地“三权分置”机制,实现新型农业经营主体的规模化生产,进一步解决其融资难和人才缺乏的问题,加大政策扶持力度等建议。     

二元学习与创新绩效的作用机制——组织内部协作网络的调节作用

组织学习是驱动企业创新、实现技术追赶与超越追赶的关键因素,如何合理组织企业的利用式和探索式学习是企业构建研发体系的关键问题。学界对二元学习是否有利于企业的创新绩效存在截然不同的观点。同时,组织内部的情境因素是影响组织二元学习和创新绩效关系的最根本因素,组织内部研发协作网络是二元学习的重要载体。基于美国半导体行业企业十年间的专利数据,实证研究发现,不同维度的二元学习对企业创新绩效具有不同的影响,联合二元学习能够积极影响企业的创新绩效,平衡二元学习则会降低企业的创新绩效;内部研发协作网络密度在二元学习和创新绩效的关系中具有显著的调节作用,企业的内部协作网络密度越高,联合二元学习对企业创新绩效的积极影响越弱,平衡二元学习对创新绩效的负影响则加剧。     

农村老年人日常生活家庭照料与社会照料关系研究——基于多层回归模型的分析

文章利用中国健康与养老追踪调查 2011—2012 年的基线调查数据,运用多层回归模型,通过分析社会照料对农村老年人家庭照料获得的影响,探讨家庭照料与社会照料的关系。 回归估计结果显示,个人层次上的年龄、居住状况、失能情况和社区层次上的老龄补贴、经济状况对农村老年人获得家庭照料有不同程度的影响,而代表社会照料的变量在统计上均不显著。 回归估计结果说明,社会照料并不能对缺位的家庭照料起到补充作用,更不会起到替代作用,两者呈现一种非此即彼的“无关系”。 文章的政策启示是,打破家庭照料与社会照料的壁垒,构建一个“流动”的老年照料体系。     

Nonstandard parental employment schedules and father involvement

This study assesses the impact of nonstandard employment schedules (shift work) on parenting among US fathers of young children in dual-earner couples. The outcomes examined include total caregiving, caregiving without the mother present, and the elements of father involvement proposed by Pleck: positive engagement, warmth, and control. Models with latent variables and with lagged dependent variables are estimated using three waves of nationally representative data from the Early Child Longitudinal Study – Birth Cohort. The results indicate that employment scheduling mainly shapes the context in which involvement takes place. Compared to dual-earner couples who are each employed during the day, fathers in couples in which at least one parent has a nonstandard schedule tend to care for their children more in the mother's absence. To a more limited extent, they also do more caregiving overall. These effects are most conclusively found when the father works during the day and the mother works during the evening, when the mother works during the day but the father works a night, split, rotating, or other shift, and when both parents have nonstandard schedules. Parental work schedules, however, have little impact on father involvement aside from care.     

Trust and health in Eastern Europe: Conceptions of a new society

Little attention has been paid to why trends and levels of mortality and morbidity differ in Eastern Europe and few studies have addressed people's own perceptions of their new political system – perceptions which per se may be important for social development. The aim of the present study was to analyse the extent to which trust and economic circumstances affect self‐rated health in Poland, Estonia and Russia and how much health differences between the countries can be explained by these factors. A better economy and higher trust were related to better individual health, while economic factors seemed most important for inter‐country differences. It is probable that both institutional factors and individual perceptions contribute to people's well‐being, but in terms of social policy, an improved welfare system may be the most effective way forward.     

An Ecological Understanding of Caregiver Experiences in Palliative Care

Palliative care is specialized health care to improve quality of life for patients with serious illness and their families through prevention and relief of suffering. A Palliative Care Institute was held in western Washington to capture community voices about diverse needs, strengths, and opportunities for improvement of palliative care. Researchers employed qualitative methods to obtain thematic data, provide real-time analysis, and engage in a multivoting technique to reflect stakeholder interest in individual themes and prioritize larger group interests. Bronfenbrenner’s ecological systems framework was used to explore caregiver experiences. Within the microsystem, caregivers reported difficulties in interactions with medical providers as a key challenge. Within the mesosysytem, interactions between patients and medical providers and the impact on caregivers were explored. Within the exosystem, caregivers reported lack of control over the schedules of personal care staff. Macrosystem influences included impact of local culture on the development of palliative care services. Chronosystem influences include de-medicalization of childbirth and its impact on perceptions of palliative care. Implications include the need for social workers to be proactive in fostering trust and effective communication between care providers and caregivers, and the demand for health care provider training in communication with patients and families.     

Shit is good: Mental health social work with lives of squalor

This paper investigates the phenomenon of three clients living in squalor, all of whom have severe and enduring mental health problems, and are on the caseload of a mental health social work team. By thinking about the clients both individually and as a group, within a psychoanalytic framework, it attempts to understand their squalor in a new way, with particular regard to the transference and countertransference experienced by the practitioner. By making use of social work literature as well as that concerning organisations and community care, it also discusses the impact these clients make on the wider community around them, and examines some of the dilemmas faced by the practitioner. The implications for social work are serious and far-reaching and these are discussed with regard to long-term intervention as well as professional and personal scrutiny.     

Sensitivity,uncertainty, and decision analyses in the prioritization of research

The evaluation of hazards from complex, large scale, technologically advanced systems often requires the construction of computer implemented mathematical models. These models are used to evaluate the safety of the systems and to evaluate the consequences of modifications to the systems. These evaluations, however, are normally surrounded by significant uncertainties related to the uncertainty inherent in natural phenomena such as the weather and those related to uncertainties in the parameters and models used in the evaluation.

Another use of these models is to evaluate strategies for improving information used in the modeling process itself. While sensitivity analysis is useful in defining variables in the model that are important, uncertainty analysis provides a tool for assessing the importance of uncertainty about these variables. A third complementary technique, is decision analysis. It provides a methodology for explicitly evaluating and ranking potential improvements to the model. Its use in the development of information gathering strategies for a nuclear waste repository are discussed in this paper.