Learning from the Piper Alpha Accident: A Postmortem Analysis of Technical and Organizational Factors

The accident that occurred on board the offshore platform Piper Alpha in July 1988 killed 167 people and cost billions of dollars in property damage. It was caused by a massive fire, which was not the result of an unpredictable "act of God" but of an accumulation of errors and questionable decisions. Most of them were rooted in the organization, its structure, procedures, and culture. This paper analyzes the accident scenario using the risk analysis framework, determines which human decision and actions influenced the occurrence of the basic events, and then identifies the organizational roots of these decisions and actions. These organizational factors are generalizable to other industries and engineering systems. They include flaws in the design guidelines and design practices (e.g., tight physical couplings or insufficient redundancies), misguided priorities in the management of the tradeoff between productivity and safety, mistakes in the management of the personnel on board, and errors of judgment in the process by which financial pressures are applied on the production sector (i.e., the oil companies' definition of profit centers) resulting in deficiencies in inspection and maintenance operations. This analytical approach allows identification of risk management measures that go beyond the purely technical (e.g., add redundancies to a safety system) and also include improvements of management practices.     

Consistent Estimation of the Regression Coefficient Through Weighted Arithmetic Mean of the Inconsistent Estimators in Replicated Ultrastructural Model

The problem of consistent estimation of the slope parameter in an ultrastructural model with replicated observations is considered in this article. A consistent estimator based on a weighted arithmetic mean of two inconsistent least squares estimators is proposed which is independent of any unknown quantity. The efficiency properties of this estimator are studied.     

Prediction Performance of Correlated Error Procedures for Spatial Counts

Abstract

Few guidelines exist for the application of geostatistical methods to spatial counts and the prediction to unsampled areas is an important aspect of experimental field research. The prediction performances of kriging and a correlated errors Poisson model are compared through simulation. Counts with a known spatial covariance structure are generated in an investigation involving several factors: area size, overall mean, range of correlation, spatial covariance function, and the presence of trend. The correlated errors Poisson model generally gives superior prediction performance when an exponential covariance structure is used.     

外语教学中的文化错误与跨文化意识的培养

在目前的外语教学中,教师一般只重视对学生语言能力的培养,而忽视了文化的因素;因而学生在用英语交际的过程中,经常犯一些文化错误。解决此问题的主要方法是对学生进行跨文化意识的培养,提高他们对文化的敏感性,最终达到顺利交际的目的。     

俄语交际失误产生的两个重要原因

交际失误现象在非正式交际中是不可避免的,在本质上属于生动的、自发的交流。到目前为止,语言学文献中很少讨论言语相互作用而导致的交际不顺畅,以及不成功交际中产生的交流失误。现代语言学对交际失误的系统研究刚刚开始。引起交际失误的语言学因素包括编码错误和评价行为特征,对交际失误产生的原因进行研究,很有必要。     

追寻“真苏轼”——从《一本书读懂中国美术史》说起

研究探讨"真苏轼",应严守学术规范,作正确解读。以《一本书读懂中国美术史》为例,可见误读频仍。该文用不足两千字的篇幅介绍苏轼生平及其文人画理论,竟有十来处违背学术规范,甚至出现令人啼笑皆非的漏误。此类所谓论著歪曲了苏轼本真,因此需呼吁:"真苏轼"不要离去,"真学者"与你同在。     

英语专业学生典型口语错误及其成因

口语在英语专业学生的语言技能中占有重要地位,因此,无论学生还是教师都应对口语给予足够的重视。分析英语专业一年级新生的口语测试错误,结合问卷调查及其结果的统计分析,从主观和客观两方面查找错误产生的主要原因,有助于改善英语口语教学。     

中国资本外逃的测算与防范

资本外逃是金融危机产生的催化剂与蔓延的助动器 ,对一国经济安全构成极大威胁。通过介绍资本外逃及其测算模型 ,运用间接法对我国资本外逃进行估算 ,结果显示中国存在严重的资本外逃现象。在详细分析中国资本外逃的产生原因之后 ,具体提出了一些相关防范对策     

曹学佺《蜀中名胜记》辨误

明人曹学佺编撰的《蜀中名胜记》保存了大量巴蜀文献,但由于编撰时间仓促,他对于一些材料的审核不够精细,故书中存在一些讹误之处。本文就其中四则比较典型的讹误辨正于此:卷八误将崔公辅诗句为李渭作,卷十五误以岑参嵩阳南溪别业为叙州南溪县别业,卷十七误以为白居易诗《涂山寺独游》中的涂山寺在巴县涂山,卷二十九误以李峤父李镇恶梓州事迹为苏味道父苏荣事迹。     

据宋元复古类正字专书匡正《说文》传抄讹误举隅

宋元复古类正字专书根据大徐本《说文》规范字形,其中一些释义、析形源于《说文》.《说文》在传抄之中出现一些讹误.文章以陈昌治刻本《说文》为蓝本,比堪宋元复古类正字专书以及其他文献异文,列举部分讹误并加以匡正.