Binary Dynamic Logit for Correlated Ordinal: estimation,application and simulation

We evaluate the estimation performance of the Binary Dynamic Logit model for correlated ordinal variables (BDLCO model), and compare it to GEE and Ordinal Logistic Regression performance in terms of bias and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) via Monte Carlo simulation. Our results indicate that when the proportional-odds assumption does not hold, the proposed BDLCO method is superior to existing models in estimating correlated ordinal data. Moreover, this method is flexible in terms of modeling dependence and allows unequal slopes for each category, and can be used to estimate an apple bloom data set where the proportional-odds assumption is violated. We also provide a function in R to implement BDLCO.     

A multivariate zero-inflated binomial model for the analysis of correlated proportional data

In this paper, a new multivariate zero-inflated binomial (MZIB) distribution is proposed to analyse the correlated proportional data with excessive zeros. The distributional properties of purposed model are studied. The Fisher scoring algorithm and EM algorithm are given for the computation of estimates of parameters in the proposed MZIB model with/without covariates. The score tests and the likelihood ratio tests are derived for assessing both the zero-inflation and the equality of multiple binomial probabilities in correlated proportional data. A limited simulation study is performed to evaluate the performance of derived EM algorithms for the estimation of parameters in the model with/without covariates and to compare the nominal levels and powers of both score tests and likelihood ratio tests. The whitefly data is used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.     

农村居民消费对我国经济增长影响分析

本文通过建立面板数据模型测度了农村居民消费对我国经济增长的影响效应,认为农村居民消费对我国经济增长具有正向促进作用但不够明显,分析了扩大农村居民消费需求促进经济增长所面临的障碍因素并提出了相应的对策建议。     

Rate efficient estimation of realized Laplace transform of volatility with microstructure noise

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the Laplace transform of volatility within a fixed time interval [0,T] using high‐frequency sampling, where we assume that the discretized observations of the latent process are contaminated by microstructure noise. We use the pre‐averaging approach to deal with the effect of microstructure noise. Under the high‐frequency scenario, we obtain a consistent estimator whose convergence rate is , which is known as the optimal convergence rate of the estimation of integrated volatility functionals under the presence of microstructure noise. The related central limit theorem is established. The simulation studies justify the finite‐sample performance of the proposed estimator.     

能源价格波动对中国物价水平的潜在与实际影响

目的/意义原油作为重要的工业原料、大宗商品和战略储备物资,其价格波动对全球经济发展具有重大影响,对原油价格进行预测是能源经济领域的热点研究课题。对国际原油价格预测的主要方法进行系统梳理并展望未来研究方向,有助于该研究领域的纵深发展。设计/方法基于295篇国际期刊文献,对国际油价预测的发展阶段、发表期刊、研究机构等进行归纳总结,然后对近二十年油价预测领域的主要研究方法进行系统梳理和分析,最后对油价预测工作进行评述和趋势展望。结论/发现自2008年金融危机后,油价预测研究快速发展,相关文章主要发表于能源经济领域的权威期刊《Energy Economic》。现有油价预测方法主要包括计量模型、机器学习和混合预测模型。展望未来,利用高频日内交易数据,融合计量和机器学习前沿方法,对原油价格进行区间预测或概率密度预测是值得探索的方向,此外还应深化油价预测结果的实际应用价值。     

农村老年人老化态度变动轨迹:基于积极老龄化框架的实证考察

基于积极老龄化理论框架和"中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查"面板数据,文章从积极和消极两个维度对农村老年人老化态度问题进行实证考察。研究发现,两种老化态度均以2008年为重要转折点,女性老化态度比男性更具多样性和多变性。健康、社会参与和保障都能引起老化态度的积极变动,但社会适应、子女经济支持和社区照料三个因素对消极老化态度有正向影响,而生产活动降低了积极老化态度水平。从贡献率看,健康因素对老化态度差异贡献最大,其次是保障因素、社会参与因素,健康因素更能解释积极老化态度的变化,社会参与因素对消极老化态度的贡献率更高,二者分别在女性和男性老年人群体中表现得更为明显。贡献率排在前四位的因素是精神健康、子女经济支持、医疗可及性和身体健康。用积极老龄化的观点帮助庞大的农村老年人口建立正确的老化态度将有益于养老问题的解决。     

Japanese and American Children's Reasoning about Accepting Credit for Prosocial Behavior

Children's reasoning about the appropriateness of accepting credit for one's own prosocial behavior was examined. Participants aged 7–11 years old in Japan and the USA (total N = 206) were presented with a series of stories in which a protagonist performs a good deed and is asked about it by another character. Across stories, the protagonist either truthfully acknowledges the deed or falsely denies it, in a statement that is made either in public or in private, and is addressed to either a teacher or to a peer. As predicted, Japanese children judged protagonists less favorably when they acknowledged the good deed in public rather than in private. Further, Japanese children tended to view modest lies more favorably overall than did children in the USA. These results point to the importance of modesty in Japan and to the ways in which Japanese children take into account the social context of communication when deciding whether it is appropriate for individuals to convey information about themselves.     

Effects of a Punitive Environment on Children's Executive Functioning: A Natural Experiment

Few studies have examined the influence of environmental factors on children's executive functioning (EF) performance. The present study examined the effects of a punitive vs. non‐punitive school environment on West African children's EF skills. Tasks included a ‘cool’ (relatively non‐affective) and ‘hot’ (relatively affective/motivational) version of three EF tasks: delay of gratification; gift delay; and dimensional change card sort. Children had more difficulties with the hot versions of the tasks than the cool versions, and older children outperformed younger children. After controlling for verbal ability (Peabody picture vocabulary test‐third edition), a consistent pattern of interaction between school and grade level emerged. Overall, kindergarten children in the punitive school performed no differently than their counterparts in the non‐punitive school. However, in grade 1, children in the punitive school performed significantly worse than their counterparts in the non‐punitive school. These results point to the need to consider interactions among discipline style, age, and internalization processes of self‐regulation to better understand environmental influences on EF development.     

A longitudinal study of depressiveness in children in public care

Rajhvajn Bulat L. A longitudinal study of depressiveness in children in public care Int J Soc Welfare 2010: 19: 412–423 © 2009 The Author, Journal compilation © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the International Journal of Social Welfare. The aim of this article is to analyse the challenges involved when making longitudinal observations of depressiveness in children raised in public care. The first measurement comprised 375 children from children's homes and foster families; however, most of the results are based on an analysis of the 139 children who participated in both parts of the research. We used the Child Depression Inventory and the anxiety/depression subscales of Youth Self Report and Child Behaviour Checklist as measures of depressiveness. The comparison of results from the first and second measurements showed that depressiveness in children in public care decreased over time. Children who grew up in children homes were, in the first measurement, more depressed than those living in foster families, but after five years that difference had disappeared. Furthermore, decrease in depressiveness is predominantly associated with less frequent delinquent, aggressive or hyperactive behaviour, less withdrawal and better control over uncomfortable emotions.     

Peer Victimization,Self‐esteem,and Ego Resilience Types in Adolescents: A Prospective Analysis of Person‐context Interactions

This study examined bidirectional, longitudinal associations between peer victimisation and self‐esteem in adolescents, and tested for moderator effects of undercontrolling, overcontrolling, and ego‐resilient personality types in these associations. Data were used from 774 adolescents ages 11–16 years who participated in a three‐wave (i.e., 2005, 2006, and 2007) longitudinal study. Structural equation modelling analyses in Mplus demonstrated that, controlling for earlier levels of self‐esteem, self‐reported peer victimization was associated with lower self‐esteem across one‐year time intervals. Vice versa, however, low self‐esteem was not predictive of subsequent self‐reported victimization. Evidence was also found for a moderator effect of personality type on the longitudinal associations between self‐esteem and victimization. Only in the subgroup of overcontrolling adolescents was lower self‐esteem related to subsequently higher levels of peer victimization; their undercontrolling and ego‐resilient peers were unaffected.