含参量反常积分局部一致收敛的判别法

将建立在局部一致收敛的概念的基础上,根据局部一致收敛与一致收敛的区别与联系,参照一致收敛的判别法给出含参量反常积分的几种新的判别法。     

Bayesian comparative study on binary time series

In this paper, we consider the Bayesian analysis of binary time series with different priors, namely normal, Students' t, and Jeffreys prior, and compare the results with the frequentist methods through some simulation experiments and one real data on daily rainfall in inches at Mount Washington, NH. Among Bayesian methods, our results show that the Jeffreys prior perform better in most of the situations for both the simulation and the rainfall data. Furthermore, among weakly informative priors considered, Student's t prior with 7 degrees of freedom fits the data most adequately.     

Natural (Non‐)Informative Priors for Skew‐symmetric Distributions

In this paper, we present an innovative method for constructing proper priors for the skewness (shape) parameter in the skew‐symmetric family of distributions. The proposed method is based on assigning a prior distribution on the perturbation effect of the shape parameter, which is quantified in terms of the total variation distance. We discuss strategies to translate prior beliefs about the asymmetry of the data into an informative prior distribution of this class. We show via a Monte Carlo simulation study that our non‐informative priors induce posterior distributions with good frequentist properties, similar to those of the Jeffreys prior. Our informative priors yield better results than their competitors from the literature. We also propose a scale‐invariant and location‐invariant prior structure for models with unknown location and scale parameters and provide sufficient conditions for the propriety of the corresponding posterior distribution. Illustrative examples are presented using simulated and real data.     

Bayesian composite Tobit quantile regression

Composite quantile regression models have been shown to be effective techniques in improving the prediction accuracy [H. Zou and M. Yuan, Composite quantile regression and the oracle model selection theory, Ann. Statist. 36 (2008), pp. 1108–1126; J. Bradic, J. Fan, and W. Wang, Penalized composite quasi-likelihood for ultrahighdimensional variable selection, J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B 73 (2011), pp. 325–349; Z. Zhao and Z. Xiao, Efficient regressions via optimally combining quantile information, Econometric Theory 30(06) (2014), pp. 1272–1314]. This paper studies composite Tobit quantile regression (TQReg) from a Bayesian perspective. A simple and efficient MCMC-based computation method is derived for posterior inference using a mixture of an exponential and a scaled normal distribution of the skewed Laplace distribution. The approach is illustrated via simulation studies and a real data set. Results show that combine information across different quantiles can provide a useful method in efficient statistical estimation. This is the first work to discuss composite TQReg from a Bayesian perspective.     

Use of a historical control group in a noninferiority trial assessing a new antibacterial treatment: A case study and discussion of practical implementation aspects

When recruitment into a clinical trial is limited due to rarity of the disease of interest, or when recruitment to the control arm is limited due to ethical reasons (eg, pediatric studies or important unmet medical need), exploiting historical controls to augment the prospectively collected database can be an attractive option. Statistical methods for combining historical data with randomized data, while accounting for the incompatibility between the two, have been recently proposed and remain an active field of research. The current literature is lacking a rigorous comparison between methods but also guidelines about their use in practice. In this paper, we compare the existing methods based on a confirmatory phase III study design exercise done for a new antibacterial therapy with a binary endpoint and a single historical dataset. A procedure to assess the relative performance of the different methods for borrowing information from historical control data is proposed, and practical questions related to the selection and implementation of methods are discussed. Based on our examination, we found that the methods have a comparable performance, but we recommend the robust mixture prior for its ease of implementation.     

我国未注册商标先用权制度之探究

当今世界,商标确权主要存在使用取得和注册取得两种制度,而未注册商标的存在正是注册取得制之应有之义.然而,商标的生命在于使用,商标因使用而实现其价值和功能.注册取得制在给予注册商标所有人以商标权保护的同时,不应损害在先使用的未注册商标所有人的正当利益.因此,采取注册取得制的国家,一般规定了未注册商标的先用权制度.而我国在此方面的立法缺失,则直接导致了司法判决的混乱局面.因此,有必要借鉴各法域之经验,对我国未注册商标先用权制度予以构建.此次《商标法》修改中增设未注册商标先用权规定的做法应予肯定,但在此基础上,仍有必要从操作层面等方面予以进一步完善.     

Sexual fantasies about one's partner versus someone else: Gender differences in incidence and frequency

Gender differences in the proportion of sexual fantasies involving someone other than a current partner (extradyadic fantasies) were explored using an anonymous questionnaire administered to 349 university students and employees (ages 18 to 70) who reported that they were currently in heterosexual relationships. Eighty‐seven percent of the sample (98% of men and 80% of women) reported having extradyadic fantasies in the past 2 months. A hierarchical regression analysis revealed that, compared to women, a larger percentage of men's sexual fantasies were extradyadic even after controlling for the effects of relationship length, number of prior sex partners, any prior incidents of actual extradyadic sexual behavior or “cheating” on the current partner, and socioeconomic status. In addition, it was found that the proportion of extradyadic fantasies increased as a function of relationship length for both genders, while prior incidents of extradyadic sexual behavior and a larger number of prior partners were associated with a higher proportion of extradyadic fantasies for women only.     

基于创业团队先前经验的新技术企业市场进入战略选择研究

基于社会认知和战略选择等理论知识,探讨创业团队先前经验构成特征与进入战略创新性的逻辑关系,并探索技术独享性和环境宽松性对团队决策的影响。基于随机抽样的问卷调研方法,利用150份新技术企业样本进行实证分析。研究结果表明,新技术企业初始战略来源于创业团队基于先前经验而达成的集体认知决策,技术导向型团队倾向于通过产品或服务的创新进入市场,而市场导向型的团队则会竭力从交易结构的创新入手,兼顾技术和市场导向的团队,虽然拥有多元化的认知模式,却没能迸发出应有的创造力。技术独享性在创业团队经验构成与进入战略创新性之间发挥正向调节作用,但没有改变团队成员固有认知模式;环境宽松性改变了创业团队在选择市场进入战略时的关注点,当环境较为宽松时,技术导向型和市场导向型的创业团队都呈现出对产品或服务创新的忽视,而加大了在交易结构上谋求创新的力度。     

Defining Problems Fast and Slow: The U‐shaped Effect of Problem Definition Time on Project Duration

This study examines how time spent in problem definition affects problem solving in projects such as Six Sigma projects. Our hypotheses are tested using data collected from 1558 Six Sigma projects in a company. The results show evidence of a U‐shaped relationship between the amount of time spent in the Define phase and project duration. This finding suggests that spending too little time on problem definition potentially causes poor problem formulation, which leads to deficient problem solving and lengthens overall project time. On the other hand, too much time spent on problem definition can lead to unneeded delays in project completion due to diminishing returns on problem definition efforts. Furthermore, the optimal balance between spending too little and too much time depends on prior project experience and project complexity. Prior project experience reduced project completion time and weakened the U‐shaped effect. Conversely, complex projects took longer and appeared to show some evidence of a stronger U‐shaped effect; this suggests balancing the time spent in the Define phase was more challenging for complex projects. Our study also underscores the importance of managing project duration, as projects that were completed faster tended to be associated with higher project savings.     

关于旧证据问题的争论——评豪森的反事实策略

介绍了学界关于旧证据问题进行争论的情况.主张在豪森的反事实策略的基础上区分理论解释性证据和理论预见性证据,以应对反事实概率的可测度性问题.反事实策略并不要求在指派反事实概率上遵循理性的标准,反事实概率实质上是一种先验概率,即无条件的主观置信度,主观贝叶斯主义并不承诺其指派合理性标准.反事实概率的可测度性并不能构成对反事实策略的挑战.