On a bayesian approach for the shiftpoint problem

Using a direct resampling process, a Bayesian approach is developed for the analysis of the shiftpoint problem. In many problems it is straight forward to isolate the marginal posterior distribution of the shift-point parameter and the conditional distribution of some of the parameters given the shift point and the other remaining parameters. When this is possible, a direct sampling approach is easily implemented whereby standard random number generators can be used to generate samples from the joint posterior distribution of aii the parameters in the model. This technique is illustrated with examples involving one shift for Poisson processes and regression models.     

Asymptotic robustness of least median of squares for autoregressions with additive outliers

This paper considers the robustness properties in the time series context of the least median of squares (LMS) estimator. The influence function of the LMS estimator is derived under additive outlier contamination. This influence function is redescending and bounded for fixed values of the AR parameters. The gross-error sensitivity, however, is an unbounded function of the AR parameters. In order to asses the global robustness behavior of the LMS estimator, we consider several notions of breakdown. The breakdown points of the LMS estimator depend on the value of the underlying AR parameter. Generally, the breakdown point is below one half for high values of the AR parameter. The bias curves of the LMS estimator reveal, however, that the magnitude of outliers has to be considerable in order to cause breakdown.     

A Corrected Plug-in Method for Quantile Interval Construction Through a Transformed Regression

We propose a corrected plug-in method for constructing confidence intervals of the conditional quantiles of an original response variable through a transformed regression with heteroscedastic errors. The interval is easy to compute. Factors affecting the magnitude of the correction are examined analytically through the special case of Box–Cox regression. Monte Carlo simulations show that the new method works well in general and is superior over the commonly used delta method and the quantile regression method. An empirical application is presented.     

A Comparison of Three-level Orthogonal Arrays in the Presence of a Possible Correlation in Observations

When we want to compare two designs we usually assume the standard linear model with uncorrelated observations. In this paper we use the comparison method proposed by Ghosh & Shen (2006) to compare three level orthogonal arrays with 18, 27 and 36 runs under a possible presence of correlation in observations.     

中国基础设施投资对经济增长波动的冲击效应分析

基础设施是经济发展的重要影响因素，而“基础设施投资促进经济发展”这一主流观点已得到广泛共识，但人们对经济增长与基础设施的探讨仅局限于总量的分析框架，并未对基础设施的类型加以区分，更没发现经济发展的不同阶段对基础设施的需求结构也是不同的。而以“基础设施投资促进经济发展”为出发点，将基础设施投资细分为生产性、生活性、社会性基础设施投资，并分别讨论其对经济的影响。通过邹检验发现：自1994年以来，基础设施投资冲击改变了中国经济增长的特征。其结论是生产性、生活性基础设施对经济增长的影响是明确的、同步的，但社会性基础设施对经济增长的作用是不确定的。因此，加强社会性基础设施投资是一个渐进地逐步推进的过程。     

由1971—2011年诺贝尔文学奖获奖情况反思中国文学

针对当前现状,以1971—2011年的诺贝尔文学奖四十年来的获奖情况为研究对象,从获奖作家所属的不同的国家分布、作家性别比例及和获奖作品风格与主旨这三个大的方面入手进行分析,探究诺贝尔文学奖的发展态势,概括和反思目前中国文学的发展状况,剖析中国作家莫言的获奖原因,由此提出对于中国作家要在诺贝尔文学奖中占有更多席位需要完善方面的建议和看法。     

高校“课程思政”研究与实践的四维综述

全国思想政治工作会议以来,理论界对高校“课程思政”的关注度不断提升,并进行了广泛深入的探索,拓展了高校课程 育人的理论与实践研究。对近年来高校“课程思政”的相关文献进行了较为系统的梳理,认为高校“课程思政”已经从注重“思 政课程”建设转变为凸显“课程育人”体系的协同创新,主要从认识论角度分析“课程思政”的内涵本质,从价值论角度阐明“课 程思政”的价值意蕴,从实践论的角度探讨“课程思政”的特色实践,从系统论的角度梳理“课程思政”的多维理路,以期为推进 高校“课程思政”改革提供理论依据和经验借鉴。     

省级政府教育统筹与高等院校体制改革问题

省级政府教育统筹是高等院校体制改革的基本诉求,也是高校治理现代化的重要依托。在其实际运行和不断发展的进程之中,中央政府与省级政府对高等院校的教育统筹权责不明、教育统筹制度本身效力层级较低、教育统筹发展监督评估体系缺失等瑕疵都是制约该制度对高等院校体制改革发挥有效积极作用的现实问题。因此,准确定位省级政府教育统筹,理顺中央政府与省级政府教育统筹权限,完善省级政府对高等院校的综合改革,对于高等院校体制改革具有重要意义。     

师专女生常见生理心理疾病探讨

本文对师专女生常见生理心理疾病作了归纳及病因分析，提出了预防矫治的方法和措施，对保护、促进女生身心健康，培养合格的师资人才，具有一定的积极意义．     

学生授课PK法在大学课堂教学中的运用

大学课堂大多以教师讲授为主,很难听到学生的观点与异议,学生的主动性与积极性难以激发,学习效果受到严重影响。本文提出一种提高大学课堂学习效果的学生授课PK法,这种方法将改变教师一贯唱主角的教学模式,同时提高学生参与学习的主动性、积极性。