论航海过失免责之废除

《鹿特丹规则》废除了航海过失免责,有学者认为这大大增加了承运人的负担,我国不宜加入该公约。然而,废除航海过失免责不会导致承运人的成本大幅增加,反而有利于航行事故的减少、承托双方权利义务的平衡和社会成本的降低,反映了国际海上货物运输法的发展趋势。同时,它对现今的海上保险制度、共同海损制度和碰撞责任制度也不会造成不利的影响。     

KENDALL'S TAU AND CONTINGENCY TABLES

Kendall's tau is a coefficient of concordance between two rankings of n objects. Its definition and large sample normal approximation are easily extended to the case where one of the rankings contains ties. In this paper, definition and normal approximation are extended further to the case where both rankings contain ties. The results are applied to give a fully distribution-free test for two-way contingency tables with ordered categories.     

Incomplete probability assessments in decision analysis

Summary In analysing a decision problem, in a situation ofpartial knowledge, a decision maker may be reluctant to assign acomplete probability distribution on the relevant states of nature. In order to face this difficulty, several methods, based onindeterminate probabilities or probabilityintervals, have been proposed in the literature. In this paper, arguing that it is meaningless to judge probabilistic assessments ascorrect orwrong, it is maintained that onlycoherence has anobjective andsignificant role. Then to overcome practical difficulties, an approach based on thesubjective methodology and on the use ofnumerical andqualitative probabilities, is outlined.     

《说文解字》中的不等值训释

《说文解字》训释的体例一般是先解释字义,再阐释字的构字理据。很多训释,训释词与被训释词貌似义合,实际在语义上是不等值的。这种不等值训释包括上下位关系、同位关系和整体与部分关系三类不等值训释。     

INCOMPLETE DATA IN GENERALIZED LINEAR MODELS WITH CONTINUOUS COVARIATES

This paper proposes a method for estimating the parameters in a generalized linear model with missing covariates. The missing covariates are assumed to come from a continuous distribution, and are assumed to be missing at random. In particular, Gaussian quadrature methods are used on the E-step of the EM algorithm, leading to an approximate EM algorithm. The parameters are then estimated using the weighted EM procedure given in Ibrahim (1990). This approximate EM procedure leads to approximate maximum likelihood estimates, whose standard errors and asymptotic properties are given. The proposed procedure is illustrated on a data set.     

ON THE USE OF X2 AS A TEST OF INDEPENDENCE IN CONTINGENCY TABLES WITH SMALL CELL EXPECTATIONS

When an r×c contingency table has many cells having very small expectations, the usual χ² approximation to the upper tail of the Pearson χ² goodness-of-fit statistic becomes very conservative. The alternatives considered in this paper are to use either a lognormal approximation, or to scale the usual χ² approximation. The study involves thousands of tables with various sample sizes, and with tables whose sizes range from 2×2 through 2×10×10. Subject to certain restrictions the new scaled χ² approximations are recommended for use with tables having an average cell expectation as small as 0·5.     

指数分布参数基于不完全样本的区间估计(英文)

对于不完全样本讨论指数分布总体参数的区间估计问题利用完全样本中的任意两个顺序统计量构造出区间估计所需的枢轴变量并讨论了相应的分布函数和密度函数即使只知道样本观测值中任意的两个顺序统计量值也可以计算出总体参数的置信区间在大样本的情况下给出了枢轴变量的近似分布可以构造总体参数的大样本近似置信区间     

Estimating likelihoods for spatio-temporal models using importance sampling

This paper describes how importance sampling can be applied to estimate likelihoods for spatio-temporal stochastic models of epidemics in plant populations, where observations consist of the set of diseased individuals at two or more distinct times. Likelihood computation is problematic because of the inherent lack of independence of the status of individuals in the population whenever disease transmission is distance-dependent. The methods of this paper overcome this by partitioning the population into a number of sectors and then attempting to take account of this dependence within each sector, while neglecting that between-sectors. Application to both simulated and real epidemic data sets show that the techniques perform well in comparison with existing approaches. Moreover, the results confirm the validity of likelihood estimates obtained elsewhere using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.     

银企金融交易：基于信息与制度层面的透视及制度创新

中国经济转轨时期银企信用关系的扭曲 ,是银企金融交易中存在的最大问题。由于不完全契约、不对称信息和信用的次优博弈等市场缺陷的存在 ,银企金融交易中逆向选择和道德风险行为的存在不可避免。目前 ,运用制度创新的手段 ,改善微观经济运行环境 ,加强银企信用的培育是解决银企债务风险的一条有效途径。     

不完全竞争、破产与企业资本结构选择

不完全竞争条件下破产或破产的可能性对企业资本结构的选择有着重要的影响.破产延缓了企业在下一阶段的投资决策,这种延缓本身的成本并不很高,但由于产品市场是不完全竞争的,因而这种延缓使得破产企业在市场竞争中处于一种策略劣势.企业间最终的均衡结果取决于破产企业固定生产成本的高低:如果固定生产成本较低,那么产品市场上相互竞争的企业之间采用相同的策略,最终的均衡结果是对称的;反之相互竞争的企业之间采取不同的策略--一家企业寻求债权的税收优惠,另一家企业寻求股权的策略效应,最终的均衡结果是不对称的,这也解释了为什么同一个行业中相似的企业之间资本结构有很大的不同.