不完全信息下多阶段移动应用产品与服务合作的可更新契约

考虑不完全信息下由提供移动应用产品与服务的ERP厂商、APP厂商与客户企业组成的产品服务供应链,针对ERP厂商与APP厂商产品服务合作中存在的逆向选择与道德风险问题,构建两阶段的动态博弈模型,分析了APP厂商隐藏与披露能力信息对产品与服务质量、供应链系统绩效与ERP厂商利润的影响,提出了信息披露、收益共享的单阶段契约与存在契约变更的两阶段契约激励策略,比较了两种契约的价值。研究表明：通过在产品开发阶段观察APP厂商的契约菜单选择以及获得的产品质量信息,甄别APP厂商的能力信息,在服务阶段进行契约变更,有利于提高产品与服务质量,降低ERP厂商风险,使供应链系统利润与ERP厂商自身利润实现帕累托改善。最后,通过算例对研究结论进行了直观考察和说明。     

基于不完全序值信息的双边匹配决策方法

双边匹配问题一直是经济管理等领域学者关注的焦点问题之一.针对基于不完全序值信息的双边匹配问题,从完全双边匹配的视角提出了一种新的决策方法.首先描述了该双边匹配问题,同时引入了完全双边匹配的概念,接着探讨了完全双边匹配的存在性,进一步给出了完全双边匹配存在和不存在情形下的双边匹配决策方法;在此基础上提出了求解基于不完全序值信息的双边匹配问题的算法,使用该算法可获得完全双边匹配结果.实例分析说明了所提方法的可行性和有效性.     

基于智能体的发电商合作博弈谈判

本文详细分析了发电商独立时的收益以及与其他发电商可能默契合作时的收益。根据合作博弈理论与智能体相结合的方法,把智能体作为市场参与者,模拟发电商与潜在的合作者进行合作以及合作以后的收益分配问题。     

Mass imprisonment and the life course revisited: Cumulative years spent imprisoned and marked for working-age black and white men

Over the last 40 years, imprisonment has become a common stage in the life-course for low-skilled and minority men, with implications not only for inequality among adult men but also for inequality more broadly. Unfortunately, all research documenting how increases in imprisonment have transformed the life-course of poor, minority men has neglected to estimate how much time black and white men on average spend imprisoned or marked as an ex-prisoner. In this article, we fill this gap by using multistate life tables to estimate what share of their working lives (18–64) black and white men will spend imprisoned and marked as ex-prisoners. Our estimates imply that white men spend on average 0.33 years of their working lives imprisoned and 2.31 years marked, while black men spend on average 1.79 years of their working lives imprisoned and 11.14 years marked. This implies that black men spend on average one-third of their working lives either imprisoned or having been freed but marked by the penal system. For the 32.2% of black men who ever experience imprisonment (Bonczar, 2003), moreover, these estimates imply that they spend on average 5.56 years imprisoned, corresponding to 13.4% of their working lives. Taken together, these findings imply a dramatic reorientation of the life course for black men, as one-third of the black male population will spend one-seventh of their working life in prison.     

大众传媒——一种特殊的公共空间

公共空间是随着现代公民社会的产生而出现的,是社会现代化的产物和社会民主的表征。大众传媒是公共空间最重要的部分,是特殊的公共空间,是政府与公民、政权政治与政权外政治互动的桥梁,大众传媒作为公共空间,着力沟通协调,能够彻底改变过去那种事实上的单向传播(灌输)模式,使组织与公众之间的双向对称传播真正得到落实。在这种情况下,人们可以自主选择,主动参与,从而激发个体作为主体的内在追求,提高公民的自我管理水平,在潜移默化中培养民众的自主意识和责任意识,在政府与民众的互动中促进社会的稳定、政府的发展。大众传媒作为公共空间的这种作用与作为党和政府“喉舌”的作用是互为补充、相互促进的。要全面认识和充分利用大众传媒这一政治资源,就必须同时将其作为公共空间来认识和把握,使之在双向对称传播中扮演适合现代社会发展需求的新角色,更好地发挥其促进社会发展的作用。     

Formal and Informal Risk Sharing in LDCs: Theory and Empirical Evidence

We develop and estimate a model of dynamic interactions in which commitment is limited and contracts are incomplete to explain the patterns of income and consumption growth in village economies of less developed countries. Households can insure each other through both formal contracts and informal agreements, that is, self‐enforcing agreements specifying voluntary transfers. This theoretical setting nests the case of complete markets and the case where only informal agreements are available. We derive a system of nonlinear equations for income and consumption growth. A key prediction of our model is that both variables are affected by lagged consumption as a consequence of the interplay of formal and informal contracting possibilities. In a semiparametric setting, we prove identification, derive testable restrictions, and estimate the model with the use of data from Pakistani villages. Empirical results are consistent with the economic arguments. Incentive constraints due to self‐enforcement bind with positive probability and formal contracts are used to reduce this probability.     

含双向表量成分施事主语句的歧义理解因素

含双向表量成分的施事主语句是配给构式,当主语的数词大于"一"时,可以分化为双重下位构式:A、(言者主语+指令动词)+分配对象集合+配给动作+分配事物集合.B、(言者主语+指令动词)+分配对象集合中的个体+配给动作+分配事物集合.A类构式主语和宾语之间的数量关系是对应关系,B类构式是乘积关系,二者的差异是常规分配和特殊分配这两种不同分配方法造成的.从构式语块来看,配给对象是施行和受动的统一体,具有指称性和数目性双重意义,配给动词主要是自主动词中的及物动词,表现出非动态性特点.典型的配给句是非现实句.     

面板数据双因素误差回归模型序列相关和随机效应的联合LM检验

对面板数据双因素误差回归模型构造了检验序列相关和随机效应的一种联合LM检验,发现该LM统计量也是检验联合假设H0：σμ^2=λ=0的Baltagi-Li LM统计量和检验假设H0：σv^2=λ=0的Breusch-Pagan-LM统计量之和。当面板数据的个体数N充分大时,该联合LM统计量的渐近分布是χ^2（3）分布;无论双因素误差面板数据回归模型的剩余误差项是AR（1）过程还是MA（1）过程,联合LM检验是相同的,即对随机效应和一阶序列相关的联合LM检验是独立于序列相关的形式。     

二维平衡单水平轮换模式设计研究

现行的轮换样本调查使用各种类型的单水平轮换模式,在西方各国均得到了广泛应用,但是也存在着一系列问题。因此,通过对各种类型的轮换模式进行统一,并进行系统化、理论化研究,最终得出了二维平衡单水平轮换模式设计方法,并对其应用优势进行了总结。这套设计方法不仅将轮换模式设计与后续的估计方法研究统一起来,而且还能够削减各类轮换偏差的负面影响,并能准确度量轮换样本之间的相关关系,最终得出更加准确的连续性抽样估计量。     

不完全信息下基于GSP的竞价排名问题研究

本文研究对象是不完全信息下搜索引擎基于GSP拍卖的竞价排名问题。基于静态博弈模型,首先给出了按点击付费情况下广告商的贝叶斯均衡出价函数;其次为了保证均衡存在,给出了关于点击率的充分条件,并分析了点击率与均衡存在的关系;最后分析了点击率变化对搜索引擎收益的影响。结果对不完全信息下广告商的出价策略和搜索引擎的广告位置拍卖策略提供了决策依据。