海外子公司职业规划对管理层激励机制的分析——基于不完全信息动态博弈模型

通过建立一个不完全信息动态博弈模型,文章对跨国公司海外子公司职业规划对东道国员工管理层行为的激励作用进行了分析。分析结论包括:公司选择真实暴露还是伪装其类型既依赖于管理层敬业工作带来的利润增加、尽职工作导致的利润损失、停止消极行为而挽回的利润,还依赖于公司伪装成本以及提供职业规划所付出的成本;管理层行为是敬业还是尽职则依赖于管理层的努力成本及悔过成本。该理论模型及其结论与其他学者通过实证研究所获得的结论一致。文章为中国企业跨国经营提出了相应的策略,并且提出,中国政府应制定不同的鼓励和引导政策鼓励人才的储备、培训和交流。     

基于声誉的盈余管理监督机制研究

盈余管理是企业经理层作为理性的代理人,在进行企业信息披露和报告过程中,利用其私人信息的比较优势,采用会计机会主义行为牟利的管理行为。在有限理性的前提下,契约必然是不完备的,存在道德风险和逆向选择问题,必须利用契约执行、监督机制来保证契约执行的效率。值得注意的前提是,由于盈余管理本身是在法律和法规允许的选择空间内进行的,因此,对于盈余管理的监督机制必然是一种"私人性"的保障机制。文章以制度分析、契约理论为分析工具,从实证的角度考察了基于声誉的盈余管理监督机制的可行性及制度基础。     

论我国空白票据制度的立法完善

空白票据是随着经济发展和信用制度的发达而产生的一种新事物,尽管它不具备票据文义性、要式性的基本特点,但在经济实践中却大量存在,因此有必要对其进行立法上的规制。本文在分析目前我国空白票据立法现状的基础上,结合英、美等发达国家的立法经验,对如何完善我国的空白票据制度提出了一系列建议。     

Optimal k-circulant supersaturated designs

Optimal k-circulant supersaturated designs have been constructed in literature using computer intensive methods. A systematic method of construction for multi-level experiments based on balanced incomplete block designs is presented in this paper. The method is also applicable to two-level experiments. Illustrative examples are also given.     

Super-simple group divisible designs with block size 4 and index 9

A design is said to be super-simple if the intersection of any two blocks has at most two elements. In statistical planning of experiments, super-simple designs are the ones providing samples with maximum intersection as small as possible. Super-simple GDDs are useful in constructing super-simple BIBDs. The existence of super-simple (4,λ)‐GDDs has been determined for λ=2-6. In this paper, we investigate the existence of a super-simple (4,9)-GDD of group type g^u and show that such a design exists if and only if u≥4, g(u−2)≥18 and u(u−1)g²≡0 (mod 4).     

Single Crossing Properties and the Existence of Pure Strategy Equilibria in Games of Incomplete Information

This paper analyzes a class of games of incomplete information where each agent has private information about her own type, and the types are drawn from an atomless joint probability distribution. The main result establishes existence of pure strategy Nash equilibria (PSNE) under a condition we call the single crossing condition (SCC), roughly described as follows: whenever each opponent uses a nondecreasing strategy (in the sense that higher types choose higher actions), a player's best response strategy is also nondecreasing. When the SCC holds, a PSNE exists in every finite‐action game. Further, for games with continuous payoffs and a continuum of actions, there exists a sequence of PSNE to finite‐action games that converges to a PSNE of the continuum‐action game. These convergence and existence results also extend to some classes of games with discontinuous payoffs, such as first‐price auctions, where bidders may be heterogeneous and reserve prices are permitted. Finally, the paper characterizes the SCC based on properties of utility functions and probability distributions over types. Applications include first‐price, multi‐unit, and all‐pay auctions; pricing games with incomplete information about costs; and noisy signaling games.     

基于双向拍卖机制的供应链回购契约研究

在非对称信息下,对报童问题进行了一定的拓展,并应用静态贝叶斯博弈的方法刻画了供应链中双方的价格制定过程;给出交易双方的线性策略空间,并从供应链利润最大化的角度,运用回购契约,实现供应链的协调.     

基于动态分类器集成选择的不完整数据客户分类方法实证研究

在管理决策的制定中,分类已经成为一种十分重要的方法和技术。由于现实客户数据常常是不完整的,因此,研究不完整数据的客户分类问题具有重要意义。通过分析以往分类过程中对不完整数据的处理方法,提出了一种基于动态分类器集成选择的不完整数据分类方法DCES-ID。分别在UCI客户分类数据集以及某券商客户数据集上进行分类的实验和实证分析。结果表明,与已有的6种分类算法相比,DCES-ID算法具有更高的分类准确性及稳定性,能够更有效地进行客户分类。     

Generalised quasi‐symmetry models for ordinal contingency tables

This paper extends the ordinary quasi‐symmetry (QS) model for square contingency tables with commensurable classification variables. The proposed generalised QS model is defined in terms of odds ratios that apply to ordinal variables. In particular, we present QS models based on global, cumulative and continuation odds ratios and discuss their properties. Finally, the conditional generalised QS model is introduced for local and global odds ratios. These models are illustrated through the analysis of two data sets.     

Compositional Tables Analysis in Coordinates

Compositional tables – a continuous counterpart to the contingency tables – carry relative information about relationships between row and column factors; thus, for their analysis, only ratios between cells of a table are informative. Consequently, the standard Euclidean geometry should be replaced by the Aitchison geometry on the simplex that enables decomposition of the table into its independent and interactive parts. The aim of the paper is to find interpretable coordinate representation for independent and interaction tables (in sense of balances and odds ratios of cells, respectively), where further statistical processing of compositional tables can be performed. Theoretical results are applied to real‐world problems from a health survey and in macroeconomics.