Subjective Expected Utility With Incomplete Preferences

This paper extends the subjective expected utility model of decision making under uncertainty to include incomplete beliefs and tastes. The main results are two axiomatizations of the multiprior expected multiutility representations of preference relations under uncertainty. The paper also introduces new axiomatizations of Knightian uncertainty and the expected multiutility model with complete beliefs.     

欠发达地区高职院校“双师”双向交流机制探讨

高职院校"双师"双向交流机制为"双师"素质教师的培养提供了有效的方式与途径。针对欠发达地区高职院校在实施"双师"双向交流的过程中存在的问题,从社会、企业、学校等方面进行分析研究,提出具有针对性的策略,以打造"双师"型教师团队。     

基于模糊信息的突发事件应急群决策研究

突发事件涉及面广、决策复杂,需要多方专家的联合决策,以有效集结各方专家的知识和经验,最大限度地降低突发事件带来的损失。针对面临突发事件时各方决策专家的犹豫性及知识不完善性,提出基于残缺直觉判断矩阵的突发事件应急群决策方法。通过构造残缺直觉判断矩阵表达各方决策专家的偏好信息,利用直觉模糊加权算子集结群偏好,计算得分函数对各方案进行排序择优。通过对突发泥石流事件进行案例分析,表明该方法充分考虑了群决策专家在突发事件应急决策中的不确定性和犹豫性,在应急管理领域中的应用是可行、有效的。     

Comparison of Four Methods for Estimating Complete Life Tables from Abridged Life Tables Using Mortality Data Supplied to EUROCARE-3

ABSTRACT

To estimate mortality due to cancer, it is necessary to have mortality data by year of age in the population of cancer patients. When such data are not available, estimating one-year (complete) life tables from five-year (abridged) life tables is necessary. Four such methods—Elandt–Johnson, Kostaki, Brass logit, and Akima spline methods—are compared with respect to 782 empirical complete life tables pertaining to 19 European regions or countries, from 1954 to 2000. Abridged life tables are first derived from the empirical ones, then used to produce one-year-life tables by each of the four methods. These reconstituted complete life tables are then compared with the empirical complete life tables. Among the four methods, the Elandt–Johnson demographic method produces the best reconstitutions at adult ages, specifically those ages at which observed cancer survival needs to be corrected.     

Applications of sequential set partitioning: a set of technical information systems problems

Many problems that appear in different contexts are conceptually similar and so are amenable to solution by a common technique. Three such technical Information Systems (IS) problems are: (1) segmentation of computer programs; (2) attribute discretization for decision tree induction; and (3) design of hash tables in database systems. In this paper we show how each of these seemingly different problems can be formulated as a sequential (set) partitioning problem, and solved using a parametric linear programming (LP) procedure. This approach provides optimal solutions unlike previous solution approaches which were either greedy heuristics or limited to solving only a specific problem situation. Given the likelihood that other applications of the sequential partitioning problem exist in IS, the material presented here could be useful to other researchers in formulating the problem at an appropriate level of abstraction so that available optimal solution approaches can be identified. In addition to providing a common solution method, parametric LP frees the user from having to make premature decisions regarding the number of groups for the partition, and this decision can be delayed post solution.     

Models with Errors due to Misreported Measurements

Measurement error and misclassification models feature prominently in the literature. This paper describes misreporting error, which can be considered to fall somewhere between these two broad types of model. Misreporting is concerned with situations where a continuous random variable X is measured with error and only reported as the discrete random variable Z. Data grouping or rounding are the simplest examples of this, but more generally X may be reported as a value z of Z which refers to a different interval from the one in which X lies. The paper discusses a method for handling misreported data and draws links with measurement error and misclassification models. A motivating example is considered from a prenatal Down's syndrome screening, where the gestational age at which mothers present for screening is a true continuous variable but is misreported because it is only ever observed as a discrete whole number of weeks which may in fact be in error. The implications this misreporting might have for the screening are investigated.     

The Jackknife applied to incomplete blood sampling models

A nonparametric alternative to the extended parametric Satterthwaite method taking into account the correlation between samples obtained from the same animal is presented. Confidence intervals are computed using a modified jackknife standard error. The performance of the method is studied by means of simulation. This nonparametric method has a smaller coverage rate than the parametric one, but still close to the nominal confidence level. In addition, its confidence interval is shorter than that of the parametric method using the generalized Satterthwaite approximation. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Approximating the difference of two t-variables for all degrees of freedom using truncated variables

A scaled t‐distribution is used to approximate the distribution of a linear combination of two independent t‐variables for any number of degrees of freedom, and in particular for low degrees of freedom where moments do not exist. The approximation is the method‐of‐moments solution to the analogous problem with truncated t‐variables. The approximation exists for all degrees of freedom, is very accurate for more than two degrees of freedom, and performs as well as other approximations of this form when they exist.     

Stability and Change: The Structuration of Partnership Histories in Canada, the Netherlands, and the Russian Federation

This paper explores stability and change in women's partnership histories since the late 1940s in Canada, the Netherlands, and the Russian Federation. Giddens' (1984) theory of structuration is used to understand how the social structure enables or constrains behaviour. Entire partnership histories are examined by applying a Markov and semi-Markov multistate approach to investigate the type, timing, duration, and complexity of partnerships. Results show earlier union formation for younger cohorts in the Russian Federation compared to postponement trends in the other countries. Cohabitation appears to increasingly serve as an alternative to marriage, particularly in Canada. When facilitated by the social structure, divorce levels are high (Russian Federation, Canada). Widowhood in the Russian Federation persists even among younger women. Re-partnering is the highest in the Russian Federation, with post-marital cohabitation gaining ground in Canada. Partnership histories are increasingly complex in the Netherlands and particularly Canada but remain stable in the Russian Federation.     

金融市场均衡理论评述

现代金融理论的重要理论基础之一是均衡理论。但金融市场是典型的非对称信息市场,且经常处于非均衡状态。于是,为适应这种变化,应用于金融市场的均衡理论也由一般均衡理论发展为不完备资产市场一般均衡理论、理性预期均衡理论和博弈均衡理论。