Simple Bounds on the Value of a Reputation

We introduce entropy techniques to study the classical reputation model in which a long‐run player faces a series of short‐run players. The long‐run player's actions are possibly imperfectly observed. We derive explicit lower and upper bounds on the equilibrium payoffs to the long‐run player.     

双层博弈视角下中美经贸摩擦走势及应对策略分析

特朗普政府执政后,中美贸易摩擦演变为对华科技、政治军事、教育文化等各个领域的“ 脱 钩”,拜登上台后基本延续特朗普政府的对华政策。此次美国对华“脱钩” 与以往小范围经贸摩擦不同, 其根本原因在于:美国对华政策转向、大国地位周期性变化、反全球化运动及民粹运动兴起和防范中国抓 住第四次工业革命的历史机遇。在美国对华“脱钩” 根本原因发生变化的背景下,双方博弈的初始条件 与以往有很大区别,有必要基于新的背景和现实条件科学动态地判断中美经贸摩擦走向和中国的最优应 对策略。本文试图在双层博弈理论的指导下分析上述问题。在信息不完全假设下,建立一个双层动态博 弈模型,并以此模型为分析框架,判断中美博弈的可能走向;以及在动态博弈环境中,中国在中短期和长 期内的不同应对策略。中短期内,美国遏制中国高质量发展权利的目标价值不会变化,中国需在精准回 击的同时,减少对美国市场和技术的依赖,进一步打破传统发展路径依赖,依靠科技创新发展国家竞争 力,加快形成国内国际“双循环”发展格局。长期来看,当美国自身经济受到“ 脱钩” 的影响时,美国国内 反对“脱钩”声音壮大,美国遏制中国高质量发展权利的目标价值变化,中方需根据美国“脱钩”政策变化 实时调整应对方案。     

Improving fire risk communication between authorities and micro-entrepreneurs: A mental models study of Ghanaian central market fires

This study conceptualizes how fire management authorities can empower nonexpert public to participate in fire risk communication processes and increase their own responsibilities for managing fire preventive, protective and recovery processes effectively. Drawing narratives from 10 disaster management experts working at government institutions and nine micro-entrepreneurs operating self-sustaining businesses in different merchandized lines in Ghana, we analyzed the data thematically and explored new insights on mental models to generate a two-way fire risk communication model. The findings suggest that fire management authorities planned fire disasters at the strategic level, collaborated with multiple stakeholders, disseminated information through many risk communication methods, and utilized their capabilities to manage fire at the various stages of fire risk communication, but the outcomes were poor. The micro-entrepreneurs sought to improve fire management outcomes through attitude change, law enforcement actions, strengthened security and better public trust building. The study has implications for policymakers, governments, and risk communication authorities of developing countries to strengthen their fire disaster policies to minimize commercial fire incidents and address the damaging effects of fire on people's livelihoods, businesses, properties, and environments. Our proposed two-way fire risk communication model is a new theoretical lens for experts and the nonexpert public to assess each other's beliefs about risk information and manage fire risk communication effectively at all stages.     

Term Structures of Credit Spreads with Incomplete Accounting Information

We study the implications of imperfect information for term structures of credit spreads on corporate bonds. We suppose that bond investors cannot observe the issuer's assets directly, and receive instead only periodic and imperfect accounting reports. For a setting in which the assets of the firm are a geometric Brownian motion until informed equityholders optimally liquidate, we derive the conditional distribution of the assets, given accounting data and survivorship. Contrary to the perfect‐information case, there exists a default‐arrival intensity process. That intensity is calculated in terms of the conditional distribution of assets. Credit yield spreads are characterized in terms of accounting information. Generalizations are provided.     

A Subjective Spin on Roulette Wheels

We provide a simple behavioral definition of ‘subjective mixture’ of acts for a large class of (not necessarily expected‐utility) preferences. Subjective mixtures enjoy the same algebraic properties as the ‘objective mixtures’ used to great advantage in the decision setting introduced by Anscombe and Aumann (1963). This makes it possible to formulate mixture‐space axioms in a fully subjective setting. For illustration, we present simple subjective axiomatizations of some models of choice under uncertainty, including Bewley's model of choice with incomplete preferences (2002).     

论亲子关系双轨制的构建

我国现行法律在亲子关系的认定上实行单轨制，体现为身份关系严格要式登记主义以及单一的完全收养效力模式的设置。这可能导致现实中缺乏形式要件的事实亲子关系无法得到法律的有效保护；收养关系中收养人与被收养人的拟制亲子关系完全取代自然血亲亲子关系，也与我国传统亲情伦理传统相悖。而亲子关系双轨制的实行，可以兼顾自然亲子关系与法定亲子关系，更有利于儿童最大利益原则的实现，也更加符合我国当今社会现状。建议通过增设身份占有制度与不完全收养制度来构建亲子关系双轨制，作为我国现行亲子制度的补充，以满足纷繁复杂的社会生活之需。     

Collateral Avoids Ponzi Schemes in Incomplete Markets

Without introducing either debt constraints or transversality conditions to avoid the possibility of Ponzi schemes, we show the existence of equilibrium in an infinite horizon incomplete markets economy with a collateral structure.