辩证法理论的新视角

辩证法理论在今天面临着它作为一门理论科学所赖以存在的独立性和合理性问题的挑战.本文在考察辩证法史的基础上,认为辩证法所要探讨的"矛盾"问题应当是有其特定的所指,主体和客体的"关系"问题应当是辩证法的实质和核心;思维和存在、人与自然、个人与社会三个方面的关系问题是主客体关系问题的有机组成部分;人与自然、个人与社会的矛盾关系问题正日益成为辩证法所关注的重大理论和现实问题共产主义实践的方向就是要辨证地解决上述三大矛盾.     

论我国司法独立的现状及其改革设想

我国现有的司法独立与真正的司法独立尚有诸多差距 ,突出地表现在 :人民法院和人民检察院未能真正独立行使职权 ,下级法院未能真正独立行使职权 ,法官未能真正独立行使职权等。为了真正实现司法独立 ,必须对现有状况进行改革     

民进党当局的“台独外交”与东南亚

民进党当局出于地缘战略的考虑,在东南亚重点推行“台独外交”。一些东南亚国家由于历史、地理、经济、文化等诸多因素的考虑,采取的是一种在大陆和台湾之间搞平衡的实用主义政策,因而在台湾问题上不断突破对中国的承诺,使双边关系受到影响。东南亚国家应与中国联手遏制“台独”,这不仅有利于地区的和平、稳定与繁荣,也符合东南亚各国的根本利益。     

Services to prevent child placing-out for cocaine-affected and non-affected families

This study sought to evaluate the effectiveness of the'In-Home Family Care' programme of Children's Home Society of California in Alameda County, particularly regarding the emphasis and impact of services for cocaine-affected families. The family characteristics, problems addressed and service provision in cases served over a 3-year period were assessed in terms of their relation to placement outcome for cocaine-affected and non-affected families. This evaluation found that, despite serious and often chronic problems among cocaine-affected families, their child removal rate was no higher than that for non-affected families. Implications for risk assessment and placement decisions are discussed.     

Evidence of a new violation of the independence axiom

During the past 40 years there has been an accumulation of experimental evidence suggesting that most of the axioms of expected utility theory are liable to be systematically violated by substantial numbers of individuals. Much of this evidence has focused on failures of the independence axiom and has stimulated a number of alternative models that try to explain that evidence in various ways. This article presents a fresh experiment that looks at a different kind of violation—one that does not appear to be easily accommodated by several of the more prominent alternative models as they are currently formulated.The experimental work reported in this article was funded by Economic and Social Research Council Award No. B 00 23 2163.     

家族持股、董事会独立性与自愿性信息披露

由于家族成员在家族企业中的特殊角色和地位,家族企业的信息透明度问题引起了学者们的关注。为了检验家族企业中家族成员持股、董事会的独立性对自愿性信息披露的影响,采用家族上市公司作为研究样本进行实证检验。研究发现家族持股比例与自愿性信息披露水平之间存在着显著的“倒U型”曲线关系,过高的家族成员持股不利于改善家族企业的自愿性信息披露状况;更加独立的董事长对于增强公司的信息透明度具有积极的作用,而董事会中独立董事的比例并没有表现出对家族上市公司自愿性信息披露的显著贡献。     

Improved functional portmanteau tests

Functional time series is a popular method of forecasting in functional data analysis. The Box-Jenkins methodology for model building, with the aim of forecasting, includes three iterative steps of model identification, parameter estimation and diagnostic checking. Portmanteau tests are one of the most popular diagnostic checking tools. In particular, they are applied to find if the residuals of the fitted model are white noise. Gabrys and Kokoszka [Portmanteau test of independence for functional observations. J Am Stat Assoc. 2007;102(480):1338–1348.] proposed a portmanteau test of independence for functional observation based on Box and Pierce's statistic. Their statistic is too sensitive to the lag value, specially when the sample size is small. Here, two modifications of Gabrys and Kokoszka statistic are presented, which have superior properties in small samples. The efficiency of the modified statistics is demonstrated through a simulation study.     

Tail asymptotic of discounted aggregate claims with compound dependence under risky investment

This paper considers the tail asymptotic of discounted aggregate claims with compound dependence under risky investment. The price of risky investment is modeled by a geometric Lévy process, while claims are modeled by a one-sided linear process whose innovations further obeying a so-called upper tail asymptotic independence. When the innovations are heavy tailed, we derive some uniform asymptotic formulas. The results show that the linear dependence has significant impact on the tail asymptotic of discounted aggregate claims but the upper tail asymptotic independence is negligible.     

Bayesian Network Structure Learning with Permutation Tests

In literature there are several studies on the performance of Bayesian network structure learning algorithms. The focus of these studies is almost always the heuristics the learning algorithms are based on, i.e., the maximization algorithms (in score-based algorithms) or the techniques for learning the dependencies of each variable (in constraint-based algorithms). In this article, we investigate how the use of permutation tests instead of parametric ones affects the performance of Bayesian network structure learning from discrete data. Shrinkage tests are also covered to provide a broad overview of the techniques developed in current literature.     

A Discrete Variable Chain Graph for Applicants for Credit

A bank offering unsecured personal loans may be interested in several related outcome variables, including defaulting on the repayments, early repayment or failing to take up an offered loan. Current predictive models used by banks typically consider such variables individually. However, the fact that they are related to each other, and to many interrelated potential predictor variables, suggests that graphical models may provide an attractive alternative solution. We developed such a model for a data set of 15 variables measured on a set of 14 000 applications for unsecured personal loans. The resulting global model of behaviour enabled us to identify several previously unsuspected relationships of considerable interest to the bank. For example, we discovered important but obscure relationships between taking out insurance, prior delinquency with a credit card and delinquency with the loan.