The performance of alternative estimators for the probit model with first-order serial correlation 1

The purpose of the paper is to evaluate the relative performance of two generalized conditional moment (GCM) estimators in terms of their mean squared errors, for the Probit model with first-order serial correlation. The first estimator is a linearized one-step estimator described by Poirier and Ruud (1988). The second one is defined in the present paper. Monte Car10 experiments suggest that the GCM estimators outperform the ordinary Probit estimator. The two GCM estimators do almost equally well, except that the second one may be easier to calculate, especially in large samples.     

对口支援政策下的产业援疆模式选择与实现路径

积极探索和研究产业援疆模式,有助于实现东西部经济合作,促进产业结构调整,推动新疆自我发展能力的提高。该文基于对口支援政策,总结和借鉴了内地省份飞地经济发展的经验和启示,结合新疆区情,根据产业援疆中的政府作用和资金特点,认为江苏模式、中石化模式、广东模式、山东模式四种较为成功、典型的产业援疆模式及其适用领域,可作为产业援疆借鉴与选择的路径模式,并从产业援疆的市场主体、转移动力、政策体系、运行机制、园区开放等方面就提升产业援疆模式的效率提出了相应的措施和建议。     

长三角创新资源的空间错配与调整政策——基于次级和县级区域的实证研究

依据对长江三角洲次级和县级区域资源配置现状的实证研究发现：一是长江三角洲区域在经历高速重化工业化的同时，开始跨入了内生增长模式的门槛，人力资本的贡献日益显现；二是越来越多的次级区域工业生产能力和技术创新能力正在超越北京、上海以及省会城市，由此国家的科技资源和高等教育资源也应当流向这些区域，使产业、科技、教育资源能够融合在同一个空间，以大大提高整个国家技术创新投入的收益；三是转变经济发展方式和实施创新型国家建设战略的真正落脚点是支持和推动更多的次级和县级区域建立高等教育体系，创造更多的人力资本，开展更多的技术创新活动，使更多的区域采取基于技术进步的增长战略。充足的证据表明，现在到了需要采取一个重视创新资源效率的区域增长战略的时候了。     

From industrial restructuring to the financial crisis: Mainstream nationalism and minimum income in the Basque Country

The uneven development of minimum incomes in Spain is one of the factors that explain the significant differences in the poverty indicators that characterize the Spanish regions, generally in favour of the territories most committed to these policies (Basque Country, Navarra and Asturias). However, there are other aspects that deserve some consideration when interpreting the specific method of developing minimum incomes in southern Europe. One aspect has to do with the differing dynamics of countries, such as Spain and Italy, which have opted for a decentralized regional model. In this regard, the regional autonomous initiative of the Basque Country played a decisive role in promoting minimum income programs in the late 1980s. Without its leadership in the launch of the regional minimum income policy, Spanish trade unions would probably not have opted for this method as a mechanism for combating poverty in the 1990s. No Italian region went on to play this driving role at that time. This article analyses the ideological foundations of the Basque minimum income policy introduced in the late 1980s and which grew significantly before and during the crisis that started in 2007-2008. It examines the dominant political narrative on this issue by analysing the discourse of some of the key nationalist leaders involved in the birth and development of the minimum income scheme. The approach shows that the experience of social decline linked to industrial restructuring processes was instrumental in the construction of the nationalist narrative.     

Beyond the heartlands: deindustrialization,naturalization and the meaning of an ‘industrial’ tradition

Deindustrialization is a complex and multifaceted series of processes and transitions, reflecting the equally complicated web of social relationships and interdependencies that constitute(d) an industrial society. Contemporary scholars have looked beyond just the economic impact of industrial loss, to the cultural, temporal and spatial legacies and impacts wrought by the mass closures of the 1980s, as well as the continuing presence of an industrial identity in struggles over representation and regeneration. However, deindustrialization has a history that precedes the volatility and culmination of that period, and has impacted upon a more geographically diverse range of former industrial locations than are commonly represented. The narratives that surround some sites are complicated by their displacement in time, place and discourse; they lack the political capital of an ‘industrial’ identity through this disassociation. In this article I aim to go beyond what we might consider the industrial ‘heartlands’ of the UK to a place that has felt the impact of deindustrialization, but which falls outside of the usual representations of the UK's industrial past. I explore how the industrial identity and memory of a place can be naturalized and selectively reworked for the needs of the hour, the very meaning of ‘industrial’ altered in the process. I argue that for sites unable to access or utilize the imagery of modern, heavy industry for community or promotional aims, deindustrialization becomes a process of rewriting an historic identity – one that sheds new light on industrial loss in diverse situations, and at an ever‐increasing distance from closure.     

类熟人社会:工业型村庄社会结构新形态

工业化、城市化形塑了人口流动的方向,这使得我国东部乡村与中西部乡村的社会性质产生了巨大分化。在工业化与人口大量流入的背景下,东部地区村庄逐步成为土客杂居的工业型村庄,“类熟人社会”成为工业型村庄社会结构的新形态。学界既有概念“无主体熟人社会”揭示了作为人口流出地的中西部农业型村庄社会结构的新形态,而“类熟人社会”与其相对应,形成对转型期中国乡村社会性质的互补性解释。在东部地区工业型村庄中,通过原生型社会关系与建构型社会关系,人们的“熟悉”感开始建立,但最终却形成了“熟而不亲”的类团体格局。类熟人社会的形成,有赖于人们在流动社会里,通过“区隔化”和“聚类化”的策略,在保障生存安全的前提下,实现生计的维持。过日子的区域差异,也使得各群体之间很难在短时间内实现融合。     

Remaking the labour movement in Italy: the revival of strikes at Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles in 2015–17

ABSTRACT

After the Fiat-Chrysler merger in 2009, CEO Sergio Marchionne imposed a drastic reorganization of labour relations in Italy’s plants, precipitating a profound crisis of the system of industrial relations in the country. But between 2015 and 2017 a significant section of workers at Melfi, Atessa and Termoli plants went on strike against compulsory overtime and labour intensification, establishing links with grassroots unions that successfully organized in logistics. The metalworkers’ union FIOM-CGIL, however, delegitimized the union representatives who resisted Marchionne’s plans. In this article, we trace the context and development of these still little-known strikes. Because of their growing institutionalization, we argue, the confederal unions (CGIL, CISL, UIL) have both failed to mobilize workers and repressed workers’ attempts to resist the deterioration of their conditions. The strikes at FCA and in logistics, however, show that new forms of radical unionism are emerging, pointing to new possibilities for working-class organizing.     

Job quality,industrial relations and the crisis in Europe

This paper reports results from recent Eurofound research on the impact of the crisis on industrial relations and working conditions in Europe, based on the output of Eurofound's European Working Conditions Observatory and European Industrial Relations Observatory and data from the European Working Conditions Survey. Overall, the crisis – even if it is sometimes difficult to separate the effect of the crisis from megatrends in working conditions and industrial relations – seems to have had an impact on both domains. With reference to industrial relations, the impact of the crisis has influenced actors, processes, and outcomes. Regarding working conditions, the results appear to be in line with the literature on the topic, which relates the crisis to an increase in job insecurity, a decrease in work intensity, in working hours, and in anti-social working time arrangements, and a general improvement in terms of health risks and related outcomes.     

长株潭两型社会示范区工业地产发展问题研究

为了提高长株潭两型社会示范区工业地产发展水平,本文以望城经开区为例,采用案例分析、实地调研、定量与定性分析相结合的方法,在充分了解园区工业地产发展情况的基础上,总结园区工业地产发展经验,对未来园区工业地产发展的趋势进行了预测,并提出提高长株潭两型社会示范区工业地产发展水平的相关对策措施。     

转变发展方式必须率先转变调整结构的方式

面对新的发展形势和经济任务，应该明确提出产业结构调整的新思路，即政府创造条件，靠市场来调结构。“十二五”期间，最优先考虑的问题应该是如何改革、如何转变结构调整的方式。倘若“调结构”的方式、特别是实体经济中制造业“调结构”的方式不能率先改革，转变发展方式的诸多目标就有可能落空。“十二五”期间的政策落脚点在于继续加快培育“统一开放、竞争有序”的现代市场体系的进程，切实贯彻中央一再强调的“资源配置要建立在市场调节的基础上”的施政原则，把产业结构的市场化调节落到实处。对于以制造业为基础的结构存量调整的方式，要基本实现从行政化到市场化的转变，强化金融、商贸等服务业的疏导、中介功能，创建有利于推进服务业深度参与存量结构调整和产业升级的体制政策环境。