从事件的角度看“述+上来”的语义网络系统

文章从事件的角度对“述＋上来”所表达的语义进行了分析,认为“述＋上来”可表达空间位移事件和状态位移事件,空间位移事件包括物理空间的位移事件和虚拟空间的位移事件。虚拟空间的位移事件义和状态位移事件义都是在物理空间的位移事件义基础上通过隐喻或引申而产生的。     

贫困大学生心理复原力与其心理健康的关系研究

利用量化研究的方法,对随机抽取的四川省四所高校的437名贫困大学生发放心理复原力量表和心理健康自评量表进行测量,并对测量的数据进行整理、分析,结果表明:贫困大学生的心理复原力水平良好;文理科学生心理复原力存在显著差异,但不存在性别差异。贫困大学生心理复原力能有效地预测其心理健康水平。     

基于项目学习的“体育教育实习指导”课程教学改革

运用项目学习方法,按照确定项目、制定计划、展开学习、制作作品、交流成果、评价水平的程序,以感知、体验、发现、应用、操作、解决实际问题为逻辑线索,对“体育教育实习指导”课程进行教学改革．归纳、提炼出运用项目学习方法的初步经验和启示：紧扣课程标准,科学制定学习计划;合理组合团队,全面获得学习体验;精细管理教学,有效监控学习过程;坚持多元评价,正确引导学生发展．     

Semiparametric model for recurrent event data with excess zeros and informative censoring

Recurrent event data are often encountered in longitudinal follow-up studies in many important areas such as biomedical science, econometrics, reliability, criminology and demography. Multiplicative marginal rates models have been used extensively to analyze recurrent event data, but often fail to fit the data adequately. In addition, the analysis is complicated by excess zeros in the data as well as the presence of a terminal event that precludes further recurrence. To address these problems, we propose a semiparametric model with an additive rate function and an unspecified baseline to analyze recurrent event data, which includes a parameter to accommodate excess zeros and a frailty term to account for a terminal event. Local likelihood procedure is applied to estimate the parameters, and the asymptotic properties of the estimators are established. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed methods, and an example of their application is presented on a set of tumor recurrent data for bladder cancer.     

Sensitivity to censored‐at‐random assumption in the analysis of time‐to‐event endpoints

Over the past years, significant progress has been made in developing statistically rigorous methods to implement clinically interpretable sensitivity analyses for assumptions about the missingness mechanism in clinical trials for continuous and (to a lesser extent) for binary or categorical endpoints. Studies with time‐to‐event outcomes have received much less attention. However, such studies can be similarly challenged with respect to the robustness and integrity of primary analysis conclusions when a substantial number of subjects withdraw from treatment prematurely prior to experiencing an event of interest. We discuss how the methods that are widely used for primary analyses of time‐to‐event outcomes could be extended in a clinically meaningful and interpretable way to stress‐test the assumption of ignorable censoring. We focus on a ‘tipping point’ approach, the objective of which is to postulate sensitivity parameters with a clear clinical interpretation and to identify a setting of these parameters unfavorable enough towards the experimental treatment to nullify a conclusion that was favorable to that treatment. Robustness of primary analysis results can then be assessed based on clinical plausibility of the scenario represented by the tipping point. We study several approaches for conducting such analyses based on multiple imputation using parametric, semi‐parametric, and non‐parametric imputation models and evaluate their operating characteristics via simulation. We argue that these methods are valuable tools for sensitivity analyses of time‐to‐event data and conclude that the method based on piecewise exponential imputation model of survival has some advantages over other methods studied here. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Eventful events: local outcomes of G20 summit protests in Pittsburgh and Toronto

How do transnational summit protests affect local activists and the internal dynamics of organizations and movements in a host city? This paper uses Sewell’s concept of ‘eventful temporality’ to explore the impacts of the G20 summit protests in Pittsburgh (2009) and Toronto (2010) Interviews, and field notes are analyzed to show how the mobilizations enhanced the skills of local activists, increased connections between their movements, changed local tactical preferences, stirred emotions, and spawned and shaped new campaigns. The summit protests mobilized new activists, but also exhausted and demobilized some existing protesters. The findings suggest the need for a more nuanced and temporally sensitive framework for understanding outcomes.     

A general modeling approach to online optimization with lookahead

A vast number of real world problems are coined by an information release over time and the related need for repetitive decision making over time. Optimization problems arising in this context are called online since decisions have to be made although not all data is known. Due to technological advances, algorithms may also resort to a limited preview (lookahead) on future events. We first embed the paradigm of online optimization with lookahead into the theory of optimization and develop a concise understanding of lookahead. We further find that the effect of lookahead can be decomposed into an informational and a processual component. Based on analogies to discrete event systems, we then formulate a generic modeling framework for online optimization with lookahead and derive a classification scheme which facilitates a thorough categorization of different lookahead concepts. After an assessment of performance measurement approaches with relevance to practical needs, we conduct a series of computational experiments which illustrate how the general concept of lookahead applies to specific instantiations and how a knowledge pool on lookahead effects in applications can be built up using the general classification scheme.     

Two‐stage phase II survival trial design

Recently, molecularly targeted agents and immunotherapy have been advanced for the treatment of relapse or refractory cancer patients, where disease progression‐free survival or event‐free survival is often a primary endpoint for the trial design. However, methods to evaluate two‐stage single‐arm phase II trials with a time‐to‐event endpoint are currently processed under an exponential distribution, which limits application of real trial designs. In this paper, we developed an optimal two‐stage design, which is applied to the four commonly used parametric survival distributions. The proposed method has advantages compared with existing methods in that the choice of underlying survival model is more flexible and the power of the study is more adequately addressed. Therefore, the proposed two‐stage design can be routinely used for single‐arm phase II trial designs with a time‐to‐event endpoint as a complement to the commonly used Simon's two‐stage design for the binary outcome.     

Predicting analysis time in events‐driven clinical trials using accumulating time‐to‐event surrogate information

For clinical trials with time‐to‐event endpoints, predicting the accrual of the events of interest with precision is critical in determining the timing of interim and final analyses. For example, overall survival (OS) is often chosen as the primary efficacy endpoint in oncology studies, with planned interim and final analyses at a pre‐specified number of deaths. Often, correlated surrogate information, such as time‐to‐progression (TTP) and progression‐free survival, are also collected as secondary efficacy endpoints. It would be appealing to borrow strength from the surrogate information to improve the precision of the analysis time prediction. Currently available methods in the literature for predicting analysis timings do not consider utilizing the surrogate information. In this article, using OS and TTP as an example, a general parametric model for OS and TTP is proposed, with the assumption that disease progression could change the course of the overall survival. Progression‐free survival, related both to OS and TTP, will be handled separately, as it can be derived from OS and TTP. The authors seek to develop a prediction procedure using a Bayesian method and provide detailed implementation strategies under certain assumptions. Simulations are performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. An application to a real study is also provided. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.