施宜生使宋泄密事件与南宋士大夫的歧议

施宜生在宋朝官职卑微,参加农民起义被捕。后逃入金,官至翰林侍讲学士,曾使宋贺正旦,涉嫌泄露金人南侵意图。施宜生使宋泄密一事在南宋社会引起广泛关注,对施宜生其人其事的记载,宋代史料和文人笔记有一定出入,后者有明显的虚构成分。从这些虚构的情节中,可看出南宋文人士大夫对施宜生品格的歧议,折射出＂施宜生事件＂在南宋社会激起的道德反应。     

Recurrent Events Analysis in the Presence of Terminal Event and Zero-recurrence Subjects

Recurrent event data are often encountered in longitudinal follow-up studies related to biomedical science, econometrics, reliability, and demography. In many situations, a terminal event such as death can happen during the follow-up period that precludes further recurrences. In this article, we will review some existing models for recurrent event with information censoring, and then extend them to allow zero-recurrence subjects as well as a terminal event. Estimating equations and partial likelihood are employed to estimate the coefficients of covariates, accumulative rate functions and the proportions of zero-recurrence subjects. The large-sample properties ofthe estimators are established as well. Simulations are performed to evaluate the estimationprocedure and an example of application on a set of migration data is provided to illustrateour proposed models and methods.     

A Bayes Linear Bayes Method for Estimation of Correlated Event Rates

Typically, full Bayesian estimation of correlated event rates can be computationally challenging since estimators are intractable. When estimation of event rates represents one activity within a larger modeling process, there is an incentive to develop more efficient inference than provided by a full Bayesian model. We develop a new subjective inference method for correlated event rates based on a Bayes linear Bayes model under the assumption that events are generated from a homogeneous Poisson process. To reduce the elicitation burden we introduce homogenization factors to the model and, as an alternative to a subjective prior, an empirical method using the method of moments is developed. Inference under the new method is compared against estimates obtained under a full Bayesian model, which takes a multivariate gamma prior, where the predictive and posterior distributions are derived in terms of well‐known functions. The mathematical properties of both models are presented. A simulation study shows that the Bayes linear Bayes inference method and the full Bayesian model provide equally reliable estimates. An illustrative example, motivated by a problem of estimating correlated event rates across different users in a simple supply chain, shows how ignoring the correlation leads to biased estimation of event rates.     

冲突理论视阈下的网络群体事件探析

网络群体事件从冲突的成因看，是冲突主体在社会进程中安全感的剥离，信任感的丧失和受挫感的增强使然。从冲突的类型看，主要存在现实性和非现实性冲突。从冲突的性质看，这种冲突具有积极和消极两面。从；中突的应对看，第一，无论对于现实性冲突和非现实性7中突都应积极响应。第二，媒体应扩大正面舆论的宣传面，秉着客观、公平的理念进行舆论监督和舆论引导。第三，政府应从韧性管治的角度，强调司法调解，并秉着公开透明、公正的原则处理冲突，以此重建信任关系。、     

Saddlepoint approximations to sensitivities of tail probabilities of random sums and comparisons with Monte Carlo estimators

This article proposes computing sensitivities of upper tail probabilities of random sums by the saddlepoint approximation. The considered sensitivity is the derivative of the upper tail probability with respect to the parameter of the summation index distribution. Random sums with Poisson or Geometric distributed summation indices and Gamma or Weibull distributed summands are considered. The score method with importance sampling is considered as an alternative approximation. Numerical studies show that the saddlepoint approximation and the method of score with importance sampling are very accurate. But the saddlepoint approximation is substantially faster than the score method with importance sampling. Thus, the suggested saddlepoint approximation can be conveniently used in various scientific problems.     

The smallest user campaign to decrease energy consumption in two Mid-South neighborhoods: A field experiment

This report describes a partnership and campaign to build awareness and support for energy conservation in a Mid-South community. The partners included a state university, the local power company, and two neighborhoods in the local community. This partnership led to a field experiment that built community esprit along with increased knowledge of and attitudes toward energy conservation. It did not result in lower electricity and gas consumption. This attempt to influence citizen behavior featured extremely powerful pre-and post-test measures of unit electric and gas consumption.     

The Effect of Mixing Events on the Dynamics of pH1N1 Outbreaks at Small Residential Colleges

Abstract

Objective: The authors examine the dynamics and the impact of all-campus events on pH1N1 spread at Bates College in fall 2009, with comparisons to 3 other campuses. Participants: Students (N = 285) presented or called in to the Bates Health Center with symptoms consistent with influenza-like illness. Methods: Health Center staff at Bates collected data on the outbreak; data from other colleges are from Web sites and journal articles. Data were analyzed using a mathematical model for influenza. Results: Bates held 2 vaccine clinics mid-outbreak. The data are consistent with the hypothesis that the vaccine clinics may have altered routine student interactions, facilitating transmission of pH1N1 among students who otherwise might not have encountered each other. Conclusion: The vaccine clinics, held when vaccine became available, were too late to halt transmission. The disruptions to campus rhythms due to the vaccine clinics may instead have contributed to pH1N1 spread.     

庚子国变与晚清时事小说

晚清庚子国变发生后,当时的小说家对这一重大时事投以了极大关注,有多部作品问世。不过因作者主体位置、关怀现实与世变角度的不同,以及艺术技巧的巧拙高低,诸多庚子事变小说呈现出不同的面目。从另一方面看,庚子国变小说相当集中地体现了当时民众对于这一家国劫难的认知和判断,反映了存在于底层社会的生动复杂的观念世界。同时,由于这一引起巨大创痛的时代变乱牵动心灵极广,故而也颇能由作品见出千百万生灵的血泪悲欢,以及时代人心、民族心理的趋向。     

Apostles and Zionists: The influence of religion on demographic change in rural Zimbabwe

Religion has acted as a brake on demographic transition in a number of historical and contemporary populations. In a study in two rural areas of Zimbabwe, we found substantial differences in recent demographic trends between Mission and Independent or `Spirit-type' churches. Birth rates are higher in some Spirit-type churches and, until recently, infant mortality was also higher. Recent increases in mortality were seen within Mission churches but not in Spirit-type churches. Missiological and ethnographic data indicate that differences in religious teaching on healthcare-seeking and sexual behaviour and differences in church regulation could explain this contrast in demographic patterns. More restrictive norms on alcohol consumption and extra-marital relationships in Spirit-type churches may limit the spread of HIV and thereby reduce its impact on mortality. These contrasting trends will influence the future religious and demographic profile of rural populations in Zimbabwe.     

“缘事说”:中国古代文论中一个被遮蔽的隐体系

与"缘情说"相对,中国古代文学理论中的"缘事说"是围绕着事件概念对文学的本质、发展、创作以及接受重新检视后而建构的一种具有原创性的历史文化诗学。发掘"缘事说"资源的目的是为了探讨和揭示历史叙事、文化叙事、文学叙事及文学生产的基本机制与内在规律,从而为当下戏仿以及经典再生产等文学现实问题提供理论支持。"缘事说"的运作方式是缘事生理、缘事生事和缘事生情,创作方法是托事于物、用事、叙事等。对中国古代文论中"缘事说"的发掘不仅具有深厚的理论意义,而且还具有深切的现实意义。