论正在形成的网络公共领域——以“华南虎”事件为研究个案

在近期的"华南虎"事件中,公众对公共话题的网络讨论倾向于高度理性化,在网络的影响下,形成了一场以网络论坛为纽带的全民大讨论.网络让一个公众自由言论的平台得以搭建,同时也成为公共讨论得以延伸到各个现实领域的助推器.可见,在网络中,一个针对社会问题的公共讨论空间,即公共领域正在形成.     

Spousal Dissimilarity,Race, and Marital Dissolution

I test the claims that spousal differences in ideational, behavioral, and other traits contribute to elevated rates of marital dissolution among African Americans. Using data from 3 waves of the National Survey of Families and Households (N = 5,424), I find that African American spouses experience high levels of dissimilarity in traits that may produce incompatibility. That dissimilarity can account for part of the difference in marital dissolution risk between African Americans and other groups. African Americans’ higher levels of spousal dissimilarity in certain areas may result from less resolution of spousal differences during initial relationship stages rather than from differences in assortative mating. The results argue for increased focus on how couple‐level factors early in relationships influence racial variation in marital dissolution.     

Distribution Analyzer and Risk Evaluator (DARE) Using Fault Trees

Risk and uncertainty are integral parts of modern technology, and they must be managed effectively to allow the development of reliable, high-quality products. Because so many facets of technology and society involve risk and uncertainty, it is essential that risk management be handled in a systematic manner. Fault-tree analysis is one of the principal methods used in the analysis of systems'safety. Its detailed and systematic deductive structure makes it a valuable tool for design and diagnostic purposes. Point probability and the minimization of the expected failure probability have, until recently, dominated fault-tree analysis. A methodology that incorporates uncertainty analysis, conditional expected risk, and multiple objectives with fault-tree analysis is presented. A computer software package termed the "Distribution Analyzer and Risk Evaluator (DARE) Using Fault Trees," which translates the new methodology into a working decision-support system, is developed. DARE Using Fault Trees is a flexible computer code that is capable of analyzing the risk of the overall system in terms of the probability density function of failure probability. Emphasis is placed on the uncertainty and risk of extreme events. A comparative study between existing codes for fault-tree analysis and DARE demonstrates the strengths of the methodology. A case study for NASA's solid rocket booster is used to perform the comparative analysis.     

Fibonacci序列与自然数序列的概率联系

本文讨论了Ｆｉｂｏｎａｃｃｉ序列的一些性质，得到了Ｆｉｂｏｎａｃｃｉ序列与自然数序列的某些概率联系，并由此得到了Ｃｈｅｂｙｃｈｅｆ结果和Ｆｉｂｏｎａｃｃｉ序列的相应概率结果。     

Count data models for demographic data∗

Key demographic variables, such as the number of children and the number of marriages or divorces, can only take integer values. This papers deals with the estimation of single equation models in which the counts are regressed on a set of observed individual characteristics such as age, gender, or nationality. Most empirical work in population economics has neglected the fact that the dependent variable is a nonnegative integer. In the few cases where this feature was recognized, the authors advocated the use of the Poisson regression model. The Poisson model imposes, however, the equality of conditional mean and variance, a restriction which is often rejected by the data. We propose a generalized event count model to simultaneously allow for a wide class of count data models and account for over‐ and underdispersion. This model is successfully applied to German data on fertility, divorces and mobility.     

International acquisition performance and experience: A resource-based view. Evidence from French acquisitions in the United States (1988–2004)

Does an acquirer with extensive acquisition experience outperform an acquirer with little or no acquisition experience? Does an acquirer with varied growth mode experience (i.e. a company undertaking not only acquisitions but also joint ventures) outperform a company that has very homogeneous experience (i.e. a company growing exclusively through acquisitions)? The main purpose of our article is to examine these two questions in-depth and to attempt to provide some answers. The questions led us to analyze the valuation effect of the acquirer's experience for 291 French acquisitions in the United States. The results were mixed with regard to the relationship between acquisition performance, acquisition experience and heterogeneous experience. On the one hand we found no relationship between the acquisition performance and heterogeneous experience of French acquirers, which is not consistent with the literature on stock market valuation of homogeneous “experience trajectories” [Singh, H., Zollo, M., 1998. The impact of knowledge codification, experience trajectories and integration strategies on the performance of corporate acquisitions. Working Paper INSEAD, 98,62,SM.]. On the other hand, our findings indicate that the relationship between the acquisition performance and acquisition experience of French acquirers follows a curvilinear (inverted U-shaped) distribution.     

“年报”与“非典”的公告日效应:比较及含义

年报公告,是上市公司向投资者披露业绩和成长机会的重要事件。理论上讲,通过事件研究法应该可以检测出明显的"年报"公告日效应。但在中国证券市场上,有相当一些公司却不能检测出与逻辑期望相一致的公告日效应。对此,有人认为是由于投资者并不关心基本面的信息,因此不能及时对业绩信息做出反应,并在股票价格中有所体现。但我们猜测,也有可能是其它原因,比如年报信息的提前泄露。非典事件是一个没有信息泄露的事件,我们选择同一组样本,用非典事件做对照研究,试图找到有关信息泄露猜测的证据。     

One’s Enough for Now: Children,Disability, and the Subsequent Childbearing of Mothers

This mixed‐methods study explores the subsequent childbearing of mothers whose firstborn children have disabilities. I make use of matched data from the 1993 NHIS ‐ 1995 NSFG (N = 4,468) to determine the effects of child disability on the hazard of a second birth and draw on a series of 24 in‐depth interviews that explore the lived experience of raising children with disabilities. My findings suggest that mothers whose firstborn children are disabled have a lower hazard of a second birth. This reduction stems from mothers’ recognition that children with disabilities have extensive needs and that, in order to meet those needs and maximize their potential, they need to make strategic choices such as delaying subsequent childbearing.     

群体资格:社会认同事件的新路径

面对多元社会力量的雕刻，个体作为能动行动者被赋予或力图获得多元的群体成员资格，并建构或解构／重构多元的社会认同，以缔造动态而同一的完整生命。这种社会认同事件的兴起，有其确定的思想史条件和历史脉络，并迫切地嵌入在中国社会转型过程中。以认同语义变迁为切入点，论文概要评论当代社会认同研究的困境。基于群体资格构念，论文把个体生命历程中所遭遇的多元社会力量的雕刻过程归类为不同共同体的教化过程，尝试为超越现有的认同研究提供新方案。论文最后展现了群体资格路径可能具有的方法论意涵。     

事件视界的一种新定义

提出了动态时空中事件视界的一种新定义，并研究了这个定义与ｙｏｒｋ 工作定义之间的关系，结果表明ｙｏｒｋ 工作定义存在着迄今尚未被认识的局限性．