Estimation in Degradation Models with Explanatory Variables

Influence of covariates on degradationis modelled. Models which include dependence of the intensityof the process of traumatic events on the degradation level arealso discussed. Estimation of reliability and degradation characteristicsfrom data with covariates is considered in dynamic environments.     

A random-effect regression model for medical follow-up studies

In medical follow-up studies, it is often the case that patients under study are required to visit a clinical centre at prespecified times and the observed information consists only of the numbers of events of interest that have occurred between visits. A major difficulty arising in the analysis of these studies is that actual observation times among the patients are usually different. To deal with this difficulty, observation times are usually assumed to be fixed and grouping techniques are commonly employed. It is well known that analyses which are based on grouping methods may yield conclusions which depend crucially on the actual choice of grouping intervals. Loss to follow-up is another problem that usually occurs in such studies. In this paper we consider a situation in which the different observation times arise from some random effect. A regression-based method for the analysis of the event counts is presented. One of the principal advantages of this approach is the complete absence of any grouping. The merits of this regression-based methodology are illustrated through an analysis of the occurrence rates of nausea in the National Cooperative Gallstone Study.     

Applying Protest Event Analysis to Architecture and Design

This article reports on interdisciplinary research where insights into ‘design activism’ (particularly architecture, product and landscape design) were sought through the use of methods from social movement studies. In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in the notion of architecture and design as activism, sometimes also called social design, public interest design or design for social innovation. An increasing interest in activism on the part of designers is matched by an increasing interest from geographers and sociologists in the spatial and material aspects of social movements, political resistance and other power relations. Yet, the area where social movements and various repertoires of social and political action intersect with design has not been well explored by any of these disciplines. While the design literature tends to view design activism narrowly and often apolitically, social movement literature, in its discussions of materiality and spatiality, typically skirts the contributions of ‘design’. Exploring this disciplinary gap, this article reports on the empirical research that applies to design the method of protest event analysis from social movement studies. The research uncovers a ‘designerly’ repertoire of action—a set of tactics that designers use in acts of resistance—and allows for an initial bridging of the gap between design and social scientific approaches.     

Charles Tilly and the Practice of Contentious Politics

Charles Tilly developed the concept of the repertoire of contention over a long and distinguished career. It wasn't easy and it wasn't quick. In addition to being easily distracted, Tilly also needed to develop the analytical tools with which to study repertoires and performances and complete his transformation from what he called "an old structuralist" to what he came to call a "relational realist." This long development came to final fruition in the book he completed shortly before his death, Contentious Performances, which the author of this tribute regards as his masterpiece.     

表述因事的介词短语及其蕴含句的生成

因事题元是动作行为或情状产生的原因,具有[＋事件]、[＋已然]和[±主体共享]三个特征;标记因事题元的介词往往是“因（为）”、“由（于）”、“为（了）”几个,其功能则存在着标记主观原因与客观原因的不同,正是这种功能上的差异制约着它们彼此间的相互替换;因事介词短语蕴含句则有直接指称因事与间接指称因事的差别,但二者均是由因事所述事件与其引发的结果事件两个句法表达式合并而转换生成的.     

贝尔凹陷火山岩相类型及石油地质意义

在区域构造背景和火山活动分析的基础上,通过大量的岩芯观察和薄片鉴定,综合利用测井、地震和重磁等资料,研究认为海拉尔盆地贝尔凹陷布达特群的岩相类型及分布规律与火山作用密切相关,其岩石类型以火山熔岩和火山碎屑岩为主,岩相的分布受中心式火山喷发的控制,火山熔岩、火山碎屑岩和碎屑岩围绕火山口呈环带状分布,将其岩相划分为3种亚相和6种微相,建立了贝尔凹陷布达特群岩相分布模式,并结合该区勘探开发的现状,探讨了不同岩相对油气储层发育程度的影响,发现火山沉积相带是有利的储层发育带。对预测盆地内其他次级断陷的有利潜山储层分布区,开拓勘探新领域具有重要意义。     

基于模糊信息的突发事件应急群决策研究

突发事件涉及面广、决策复杂,需要多方专家的联合决策,以有效集结各方专家的知识和经验,最大限度地降低突发事件带来的损失。针对面临突发事件时各方决策专家的犹豫性及知识不完善性,提出基于残缺直觉判断矩阵的突发事件应急群决策方法。通过构造残缺直觉判断矩阵表达各方决策专家的偏好信息,利用直觉模糊加权算子集结群偏好,计算得分函数对各方案进行排序择优。通过对突发泥石流事件进行案例分析,表明该方法充分考虑了群决策专家在突发事件应急决策中的不确定性和犹豫性,在应急管理领域中的应用是可行、有效的。     

健全利益表达机制 预防和化解群体性事件

建立健全利益表达机制,提高利益表达的有效性,关键在于要首先破除利益表达的体制性梗阻,并注意培育社会自主治理主体,强化利益博弈和制度化解决的组织基础,同时进一步完善相关协商机制,将利益冲突纳入合法、有效的协商,这些是预防和化解群体性事件的根本之道。     

基于利益博弈视角的群体性事件剖析

基于利益博弈视角,群体性事件是经济生活中正常的利益表达和利益博弈。弱势群体同强势群体和地方政府之间的非均衡博弈,导致弱势群体的正当利益受到严重损害,是产生群体性事件的根本原因。通过提高弱势群体的组织化程度以增强其力量,深化干部人事制度改革以促使政府职能转变,克服司法工作行政化倾向以实现司法公平,从而为实现均衡博弈和妥善协调不同群体之间的利益关系创造必要条件。     

Effects of Age Shift on the Tempo and Quantum of Non-Repeatable Events

Effects of age shift on the tempo and quantum of non-repeatable demographic events are examined. The purpose is to develop a period index theory based on the survival model and to provide a mathematically consistent interpretation of Bongaarts and Feeney's tempo adjustment arguments. The survival model for non-repeatable events is introduced. In the time-inhomogeneous case, three types of period survival models are considered. McKendrick equation is used to formulate the risk population dynamics. The tempo and quantum indices for three period survival models are computed when the period age shift occurs for the hazard, the incidence, and the survival rates. Bongaarts and Feeney's tempo adjustment arguments are consistently based on the scenario of the period age shift on the survival rate, and they give translation formulae between period indices without referring to cohort. Traditional demographic translation formulae between cohort and period indices are reviewed to clarify differences between cohort- and period-oriented translation procedures.