Bayesian inference for a partially observed birth–death process using data on proportions

Stochastic kinetic models are often used to describe complex biological processes. Typically these models are analytically intractable and have unknown parameters which need to be estimated from observed data. Ideally we would have measurements on all interacting chemical species in the process, observed continuously in time. However, in practice, measurements are taken only at a relatively few time‐points. In some situations, only very limited observation of the process is available, for example settings in which experimenters can only observe noisy observations on the proportion of cells that are alive. This makes the inference task even more problematic. We consider a range of data‐poor scenarios and investigate the performance of various computationally intensive Bayesian algorithms in determining the posterior distribution using data on proportions from a simple birth‐death process.     

Asymptotics of maxima and sums for a type of strongly dependent isotropic Gaussian random fields

For a type of strongly dependent isotropic Gaussian random fields introduced by Mittal (1976 Mittal, Y. 1976. A class of isotropic covariances functions. Pacific Journal of Mathematics 64:517–38.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), the joint limiting distribution of the maximum and the sum for the Gaussian random fields is derived. The asymptotic relation between the maximum and sum of the continuous time strongly dependent isotropic Gaussian random fields and the maximum and sum of this fields sampled at discrete time points is also obtained.     

Bimodal symmetric-asymmetric power-normal families

This article proposes new symmetric and asymmetric distributions applying methods analogous as the ones in Kim (2005 Kim, H.J. (2005). On a class of two-piece skew-normal distributions. Statist.: J. Theoret. Appl. Statist. 39:537–553.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Arnold et al. (2009 Arnold, B.C., H.W. Gómez, and H.S. Salinas. (2009). On multiple constraint skewed models. Statist. J. Theoret. Appl. Statist. 43: 279–293.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) to the exponentiated normal distribution studied in Durrans (1992 Durrans, S.R. (1992). Distributions of fractional order statistics in hydrology. Water Resour. Res. 28:1649–1655.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), that we call the power-normal (PN) distribution. The proposed bimodal extension, the main focus of the paper, is called the bimodal power-normal model and is denoted by BPN(α) model, where α is the asymmetry parameter. The authors give some properties including moments and maximum likelihood estimation. Two important features of the model proposed is that its normalizing constant has closed and simple form and that the Fisher information matrix is nonsingular, guaranteeing large sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimators. Finally, simulation studies and real applications reveal that the proposed model can perform well in both situations.     

基于联想记忆神经网络的控制方法

提出了一种新型联想记忆神经网络结构和学习算法,通过反馈通道将网络输出反馈至输入层,并在通道中引入联想记忆因子,提高了X寸非线性系统的辨识能力,能够简单有效的建立起电阻炉的数学模型。采用具有逆辨识结构的神经网络控制方法对电阻炉进行实际控制,逆控制器的参数通过神经网络逆辨识模型得到,神经网络采用3层2—8—1结构形式。与常规PID控制相比较表明,此方法对大滞后非线性系统具有良好的控制效果和较强的抗干扰能力。     

The auto-regression and the moving-average

We explore some relationships in the second-order properties of a causal auto-regression and an invertible moving-average process with the same polynomial. We reveal that the inverse variance matrix for random variables from the auto-regression is equal to a conditional variance matrix of Gaussian random variables from the moving-average and vice versa. While the inverse variance matrix for the auto-regression can be written explicitly, we manage to write down the exact Gaussian likelihood of consecutive observations from the moving-average process, by using the properties of the auto-regression.     

Efficiency in estimation of memory

We study the efficiency of semiparametric estimates of memory parameter. We propose a class of shift invariant tapers of order (p,q). For a fixed p, the variance inflation factor of the new tapers approaches 1 as q   goes to infinity. We show that for d∈(−1/2,p+1/2)$d\in (-1/2,p+1/2)$, the proposed tapered Gaussian semiparametric estimator has the same limiting distribution as the nontapered version for d∈(−1/2,1/2)$d\in (-1/2,1/2)$. The new estimator is mean and polynomial trend invariant, and is computationally advantageous in comparison to the recently proposed exact local Whittle estimator. The simulation study shows that our estimator has comparable or better mean squared error in finite samples for a variety of models.     

线性流形上D-对称矩阵的反问题

通过利用数值线性代数的系列工具——矩阵的奇异值分解（SVD）,广义奇异值分解（GSVD）,矩阵的广义逆等,解决了线性流形上的D-对称矩阵的反问题.最后给出了具体的例子作为说明,表明这个算法的可靠性.     

Modeling sensitivity and specificity with a time-varying reference standard within a longitudinal setting

Diagnostic tests are used in a wide range of behavioral, medical, psychosocial, and healthcare-related research. Test sensitivity and specificity are the most popular measures of accuracy for diagnostic tests. Available methods for analyzing longitudinal study designs assume fixed gold or reference standards and as such do not apply to studies with dynamically changing reference standards, which are especially popular in psychosocial research. In this article, we develop a novel approach to address missing data and other related issues for modeling sensitivity and specificity within such a time-varying reference standard setting. The approach is illustrated with real as well as simulated data.     

Stochastic Differential Mixed-Effects Models

Abstract.  Stochastic differential equations have been shown useful in describing random continuous time processes. Biomedical experiments often imply repeated measurements on a series of experimental units and differences between units can be represented by incorporating random effects into the model. When both system noise and random effects are considered, stochastic differential mixed-effects models ensue. This class of models enables the simultaneous representation of randomness in the dynamics of the phenomena being considered and variability between experimental units, thus providing a powerful modelling tool with immediate applications in biomedicine and pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic studies. In most cases the likelihood function is not available, and thus maximum likelihood estimation of the unknown parameters is not possible. Here we propose a computationally fast approximated maximum likelihood procedure for the estimation of the non-random parameters and the random effects. The method is evaluated on simulations from some famous diffusion processes and on real data sets.     

Network-based genomic discovery: application and comparison of Markov random field models

Summary.  As biological knowledge accumulates rapidly, gene networks encoding genomewide gene–gene interactions have been constructed. As an improvement over the standard mixture model that tests all the genes identically and independently distributed a priori , Wei and co-workers have proposed modelling a gene network as a discrete or Gaussian Markov random field (MRF) in a mixture model to analyse genomic data. However, how these methods compare in practical applications is not well understood and this is the aim here. We also propose two novel constraints in prior specifications for the Gaussian MRF model and a fully Bayesian approach to the discrete MRF model. We assess the accuracy of estimating the false discovery rate by posterior probabilities in the context of MRF models. Applications to a chromatin immuno-precipitation–chip data set and simulated data show that the modified Gaussian MRF models have superior performance compared with other models, and both MRF-based mixture models, with reasonable robustness to misspecified gene networks, outperform the standard mixture model.