The selection of zero-non-zero patterned cointegrating vectors in error-correction modelling

An effective and efficient search algorithm has been developed to select from an 1(1) system zero-non-zero patterned cointegrating and loading vectors in a subset VECM, B^q(l)y(t-1) + B^q-1 (L)Ay(t) = ε( t ) , where the long term impact matrix Bq(l) contains zero entries. The algorithm can be applied to higher order integrated systems. The Finnish money-output model presented by Johansen and Juselius (1990) and the United States balanced growth model presented by King, Plosser, Stock and Watson (1991) are used to demonstrate the usefulness of this algorithm in examining the cointegrating relationships in vector time series.     

区域突发公共事件应急联动体系亟待建设

论述了区域突发公共事件的特点,分析了构建区域突发公共事件联动体系的必要性,提出了区域突发公共事件应急联动体系构建的有关设想。     

Regression Modelling of Disease Risk in Relation to Point Sources

We describe a class of models for the investigation of possible raised risk of disease around putative sources of environmental pollution. An adaptation of the point process method suggested by Diggle and Rowlingson is presented, allowing the use of routinely available aggregated data and incorporating the more general distance–risk model suggested by Elliott and co-workers. An application to data on cancers of the stomach around municipal solid waste incinerators is presented.     

图形设计在现代设计教学中的开展及意义

现代设计的发展决定了现代设计教学的特点.图形设计教学在围绕着现代设计观念展开的同时也对现代设计的发展起着推动作用.科学的图形设计教学体系,完整的图形设计课程设置,促使图形设计教学为整个现代设计教育奠定重要的基础.     

Semiparametric Bayesian classification with longitudinal markers

Summary.  We analyse data from a study involving 173 pregnant women. The data are observed values of the β human chorionic gonadotropin hormone measured during the first 80 days of gestational age, including from one up to six longitudinal responses for each woman. The main objective in this study is to predict normal versus abnormal pregnancy outcomes from data that are available at the early stages of pregnancy. We achieve the desired classification with a semiparametric hierarchical model. Specifically, we consider a Dirichlet process mixture prior for the distribution of the random effects in each group. The unknown random-effects distributions are allowed to vary across groups but are made dependent by using a design vector to select different features of a single underlying random probability measure. The resulting model is an extension of the dependent Dirichlet process model, with an additional probability model for group classification. The model is shown to perform better than an alternative model which is based on independent Dirichlet processes for the groups. Relevant posterior distributions are summarized by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.     

Parental constructions of masculinity at the transition to parenthood: the division of parental leave among Austrian couples

Men and masculinity are considered a key factor in changing gender inequality at the transition to parenthood. Prior research on gendered division of parental leave concentrated on fathers’ perspectives. This paper includes perspectives of fathers and mothers who make use of parental leave in different ways and asks how masculinity is jointly constructed, how these constructions are linked to the use of parental leave, and if and how they are oriented towards hegemonic masculinity. The analysis is based on 44 qualitative interviews with 11 Austrian couples before and after birth when decisions concerning parental leave were made. Our case reconstructions reveal that parents considered parental leave a central element of masculinity as long as it suited fathers’ needs and circumstances permitted. The decisions for sharing parental leave were father-centred as both partners valued father’s leave higher than mother’s.     

论教唆、帮助他人实施侵权行为的民事责任承担

教唆、帮助他人实施侵权行为理论上属于广义上的共同侵权行为,但在民事责任的承担上具有特殊性.从规范模式看,教唆、帮助他人实施侵权行为在我国经历了由司法解释到民事立法的演变过程,但现行立法规定仍有完善必要.教唆人与帮助人在侵权行为中的主观恶性及其对后果的影响等方面明显不同,因而在民事责任承担上应有所区别.教唆、帮助非完全民事行为能力人实施侵权行为的,应根据被教唆、帮助的对象不同确立相应的民事责任承担规则.即教唆无民事行为能力人实施侵权行为的,由教唆人承担全部责任;教唆限制民事行为能力人实施侵权行为的,由教唆人承担主要责任.     

Variable selection in partial linear regression with functional covariate

The problem of variable selection is considered in high-dimensional partial linear regression under some model allowing for possibly functional variable. The procedure studied is that of nonconcave-penalized least squares. It is shown the existence of a √n/s_n-consistent estimator for the vector of p_n linear parameters in the model, even when p_n tends to ∞ as the sample size n increases (s_n denotes the number of influential variables). An oracle property is also obtained for the variable selection method, and the nonparametric rate of convergence is stated for the estimator of the nonlinear functional component of the model. Finally, a simulation study illustrates the finite sample size performance of our procedure.     

Flexible modelling of simultaneously interval censored and truncated time‐to‐event data

This paper deals with the analysis of data from a HET‐CAM^VT experiment. From a statistical perspective, such data yield many challenges. First of all, the data are typically time‐to‐event like data, which are at the same time interval censored and right truncated. In addition, one has to cope with overdispersion as well as clustering. Traditional analysis approaches ignore overdispersion and clustering and summarize the data into a continuous score that can be analysed using simple linear models. In this paper, a novel combined frailty model is developed that simultaneously captures all of the aforementioned statistical challenges posed by the data. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.