全文获取类型
收费全文 | 14936篇 |
免费 | 613篇 |
国内免费 | 180篇 |
专业分类
管理学 | 1533篇 |
劳动科学 | 2篇 |
民族学 | 115篇 |
人才学 | 1篇 |
人口学 | 385篇 |
丛书文集 | 946篇 |
理论方法论 | 511篇 |
综合类 | 8448篇 |
社会学 | 1193篇 |
统计学 | 2595篇 |
出版年
2024年 | 23篇 |
2023年 | 138篇 |
2022年 | 134篇 |
2021年 | 176篇 |
2020年 | 299篇 |
2019年 | 344篇 |
2018年 | 388篇 |
2017年 | 473篇 |
2016年 | 422篇 |
2015年 | 494篇 |
2014年 | 802篇 |
2013年 | 1567篇 |
2012年 | 1044篇 |
2011年 | 1030篇 |
2010年 | 828篇 |
2009年 | 783篇 |
2008年 | 900篇 |
2007年 | 984篇 |
2006年 | 911篇 |
2005年 | 790篇 |
2004年 | 692篇 |
2003年 | 578篇 |
2002年 | 482篇 |
2001年 | 352篇 |
2000年 | 262篇 |
1999年 | 151篇 |
1998年 | 82篇 |
1997年 | 87篇 |
1996年 | 84篇 |
1995年 | 64篇 |
1994年 | 60篇 |
1993年 | 54篇 |
1992年 | 42篇 |
1991年 | 22篇 |
1990年 | 29篇 |
1989年 | 33篇 |
1988年 | 24篇 |
1987年 | 23篇 |
1986年 | 21篇 |
1985年 | 14篇 |
1984年 | 15篇 |
1983年 | 7篇 |
1982年 | 6篇 |
1981年 | 9篇 |
1980年 | 2篇 |
1979年 | 1篇 |
1978年 | 1篇 |
1977年 | 1篇 |
1975年 | 1篇 |
排序方式: 共有10000条查询结果,搜索用时 31 毫秒
31.
Gary Pollock 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)》2007,170(1):167-183
Summary. Social science applications of sequence analysis have thus far involved the development of a typology on the basis of an analysis of one or two variables which have had a relatively low number of different states. There is a yet unexplored potential for sequence analysis to be applied to a greater number of variables and thereby a much larger state space. The development of a typology of employment experiences, for example, without reference to data on changes in housing, marital and family status is arguably inadequate. The paper demonstrates the use of sequence analysis in the examination of multivariable combinations of status as they change over time and shows that this method can provide insights that are difficult to achieve through other analytic methods. The data that are examined here provide support to intuitive understandings of clusters of common experiences which are both life course specific and related to socio-economic factors. Housing tenure is found to be of key importance in understanding the holistic trajectories that are examined. This suggests that life course trajectories are sharply differentiated by experience of social housing. 相似文献
32.
根据现有文献研究成果,结合实际调研分析,将供应链风险因素整理归纳为系统风险、供应风险、物流风险、信息风险、财务风险、管理风险、需求风险和环境风险。每种风险因素并非独立存在,而是相互影响、互为根源。其非线性叠加结果将会放大供应链整体风险水平。因此,必须认识到其存在的风险,只有在明确各种风险产生根源的基础上,才能恰当地制定、选择和采取有效措施,规避风险,确保供应链整体绩效稳步提高。 相似文献
33.
吴勇 《燕山大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2007,8(4):6-9
《政治学核心概念》是一部在国外政治学界有广泛影响的著作。在这部著作中,海伍德强调了政治概念的特殊重要性并对此进行了独到的解释;探讨了政治概念在实际应用中存在的特殊问题并进行了有深度的分析;对"规范性概念"和"描述性概念"进行了富有启发意义的区分与阐释。该书不仅展现了作者在政治概念界定与诠释上的学术专长与独到之处,也体现了作者在政治学知识再现与传播上尽量贴近读者与学生的教师情结与风范。 相似文献
34.
在对国外公司财务预警经典研究成果进行回顾和总结的基础上,运用多元判别分析方法(MDA)和逐步判别分析(Stepdisc)等方法逐层推进构造预测模型,以经济实用为选择标准,最终建立一个预测准确率最高、变量最少的适合中国实际情况的财务危机预测模型。 相似文献
35.
根据先前的研究 ,从企业核心能力的角度阐述了自知识能力的本质特征 ,即动态的特征、宽泛的特征、深层次的特征。分析了扼杀企业自知识能力的因素 ,包括企业文化因素、组织结构设计因素、分析性思维因素、策略性决策因素、激励性体系因素等五个方面。在此基础上提出了提升企业自知识能力的对策。 相似文献
36.
危机管理的目的是为了避免和减少危机的损害,是一场"防御性的战斗",也是一项系统工程。论文结合竞争激烈的施工企业市场实际,从施工企业危机管理入手,阐述了施工企业危机管理目前的共性内容,并通过分析对危机管理的重要意义、危机管理效果和经济效果的衡量等问题,进一步通过施工企业危机管理的经济分析对危机管理投入、所得的界定,研究了危机管理投入的量化及归一化,以及危机管理所得的量化及归一化问题,得出单位投入所带来的整体稳定态势,其值越大表明危机管理越有效。可为施工企业开展此项工作提供一定的理论指导。 相似文献
37.
Marc Kennedy Clive Anderson Anthony O'Hagan Mark Lomas Ian Woodward John Paul Gosling Andreas Heinemeyer 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)》2008,171(1):109-135
Summary. A crucial issue in the current global warming debate is the effect of vegetation and soils on carbon dioxide (CO2 ) concentrations in the atmosphere. Vegetation can extract CO2 through photosynthesis, but respiration, decay of soil organic matter and disturbance effects such as fire return it to the atmosphere. The balance of these processes is the net carbon flux. To estimate the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales, we address the statistical problem of inference for the sum of multiple outputs from a complex deterministic computer code whose input parameters are uncertain. The code is a process model which simulates the carbon dynamics of vegetation and soils, including the amount of carbon that is stored as a result of photosynthesis and the amount that is returned to the atmosphere through respiration. The aggregation of outputs corresponding to multiple sites and types of vegetation in a region gives an estimate of the total carbon flux for that region over a period of time. Expert prior opinions are elicited for marginal uncertainty about the relevant input parameters and for correlations of inputs between sites. A Gaussian process model is used to build emulators of the multiple code outputs and Bayesian uncertainty analysis is then used to propagate uncertainty in the input parameters through to uncertainty on the aggregated output. Numerical results are presented for England and Wales in the year 2000. It is estimated that vegetation and soils in England and Wales constituted a net sink of 7.55 Mt C (1 Mt C = 1012 g of carbon) in 2000, with standard deviation 0.56 Mt C resulting from the sources of uncertainty that are considered. 相似文献
38.
建立了S油田勘探、开发、炼化、机械、公用工程等多个部门和全局的非线性多级目标优化规划模型,应用关联分析、改进灰色预测、回归分析求取规划模型的约束方程并线性化;编制了相应的计算软件,使之快速预测和优化油田各部门“九五”各年的投资和产值;并将优化结果与油田过去或计划值加以对比,给油田规划决策带来一定的参考。 相似文献
39.
Tim Futing Liao 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)》2004,167(1):125-139
Summary. Social data often contain missing information. The problem is inevitably severe when analysing historical data. Conventionally, researchers analyse complete records only. Listwise deletion not only reduces the effective sample size but also may result in biased estimation, depending on the missingness mechanism. We analyse household types by using population registers from ancient China (618–907 AD) by comparing a simple classification, a latent class model of the complete data and a latent class model of the complete and partially missing data assuming four types of ignorable and non-ignorable missingness mechanisms. The findings show that either a frequency classification or a latent class analysis using the complete records only yielded biased estimates and incorrect conclusions in the presence of partially missing data of a non-ignorable mechanism. Although simply assuming ignorable or non-ignorable missing data produced consistently similarly higher estimates of the proportion of complex households, a specification of the relationship between the latent variable and the degree of missingness by a row effect uniform association model helped to capture the missingness mechanism better and improved the model fit. 相似文献
40.
Bayesian networks for imputation 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Marco Di Zio Mauro Scanu Lucia Coppola Orietta Luzi Alessandra Ponti 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)》2004,167(2):309-322
Summary. Bayesian networks are particularly useful for dealing with high dimensional statistical problems. They allow a reduction in the complexity of the phenomenon under study by representing joint relationships between a set of variables through conditional relationships between subsets of these variables. Following Thibaudeau and Winkler we use Bayesian networks for imputing missing values. This method is introduced to deal with the problem of the consistency of imputed values: preservation of statistical relationships between variables ( statistical consistency ) and preservation of logical constraints in data ( logical consistency ). We perform some experiments on a subset of anonymous individual records from the 1991 UK population census. 相似文献