怒俅殖边:近代云南一次意义深远的边疆开发

民国初期 ,云南地方政府在滇西北怒江少数民族地区的设治经营 ,是云南边疆民族地区发展历史上的一个重大事件 ,它对怒江地区的社会发展和各民族的进步产生了极其重大而深远的影响。本文阐述了“怒俅殖边”这一历史进程 ,认为它使怒江地区的民族关系得到明显的调整与改善 ;使怒江经济社会发展进入一个新时期 ;遏制了英国侵略势头 ,对巩固滇西北边防产生了重要和深远的影响     

从“诠释学”到“诠释之道” ——中国诠释学研究的合法性依据与发展方向

依据中国学术的一贯传统,所谓“诠释学”实际上就是“诠释之道”,有古今之别,更有中西之异。据此,不仅可从根本上阐明中国诠释学研究的合法性,厘清中西诠释传统和理论之间的关系,更能获得中国诠释学研究在“后西方”时代的自我定位和发展方向。中国诠释学研究所要努力探索和建构的,乃是中华文明的现代诠释之道,它将继承和弘扬中华文明的诠释传统,自成一体而又具有充分的开放性、涵摄性和普适性。     

历史能动与宿命及其文化浮沉 ——评唐浩明长篇历史小说《曾国藩》

唐浩明长篇历史小说《曾国藩》塑造了一位与时代错位的理学名臣与治世能臣形象,谱写了一段风起云涌的奋斗历史,演绎了一出历史宿命与时代背景交织的动人心弦的时代悲剧;其人物生命的奋力撞击,历史风云的本真抒写,则在审美维度之外引发出对传统文化的辛酸回顾、深度考察与全面反思。     

Collective versus Individual Effects in Survival Analysis of Multiple Failures

In survival analysis, we sometimes encounter data with multiple censored outcomes. Under certain scenarios, partial or even all covariates have ‘similar’ relative risks on the multiple outcomes in the Cox regression analysis. The similarity in covariate effects can be quantified using the proportionality of regression coefficients. Identifying the proportionality structure, or equivalently whether covariates have individual or collective effects, may have important scientific implications. In addition, it can lead to a smaller set of unknown parameters, which in turn results in more accurate estimation. In this article, we develop a novel approach for identifying the proportionality structure. Simulation shows the satisfactory performance of the proposed approach and its advantage over estimation under no assumed structure. We analyse three datasets to demonstrate the practical application of the proposed approach.     

手机祝福短信与现代人的节日生存状态

本文分析了手机节日祝福短信的娱乐性、“耍贫嘴”现象和机械复制性等文化特征,认为手机节日祝福短信在快速便捷地传递祝福信息的同时,也以虚幻的电子传媒空间代替了情感的直接沟通,以娱乐和搞笑代替了真诚的祝福。手机短信解构了节日的神圣性,对传统的节日生活形成了一定的冲击,使传媒时代的人们变得浮躁和空虚。     

兰陵萧氏宗教信仰转变与时代变迁互动关系初探

兰陵萧氏是中国中古时期显赫的士大夫家族,历经梁、陈、隋、唐400余年,且始终活跃在这个时期上层社会的舞台上。文章对兰陵萧氏家族信仰的形成及变迁做初步探讨,力图揭示以兰陵萧氏为代表的中古士大代夫家族信仰的变迁与中国中古社会政治思想文化变动之间的互动关系。     

Inference on a progressive type I interval-censored truncated normal distribution

In this paper, we consider the problem of making statistical inference for a truncated normal distribution under progressive type I interval censoring. We obtain maximum likelihood estimators of unknown parameters using the expectation-maximization algorithm and in sequel, we also compute corresponding midpoint estimates of parameters. Estimation based on the probability plot method is also considered. Asymptotic confidence intervals of unknown parameters are constructed based on the observed Fisher information matrix. We obtain Bayes estimators of parameters with respect to informative and non-informative prior distributions under squared error and linex loss functions. We compute these estimates using the importance sampling procedure. The highest posterior density intervals of unknown parameters are constructed as well. We present a Monte Carlo simulation study to compare the performance of proposed point and interval estimators. Analysis of a real data set is also performed for illustration purposes. Finally, inspection times and optimal censoring plans based on the expected Fisher information matrix are discussed.     

数智时代大学生主流意识形态教育的机遇、挑战与进路

数智技术的蓬勃发展为大学生主流意识形态教育的时空场域、交互方式、内容供给、治理变革等维度持续发展提供了重要机遇。与此同时,数智技术所带来的个性化算法推荐、娱乐化叙事方式、圈群化生存处境、数字化虚拟身份使大学生主流意识形态教育引领力被淡化、主导力被离散、传播力被削弱、约束力被消解。因此,本文就如何最大化发挥数智技术的优势,从价值引领、传播优化、素养提升、法律规范等角度提出大学生主流意识形态教育的创新发展路径。     

论中国古代服饰广告的传播特色

中国古代的服饰具有广告的属性和特征,它是古代广告媒介的重要形态之一.中国古代服饰广告历史悠久,并经过了一个漫长的发展和演进过程.中国古代服饰广告丰富多彩,色彩、款式、图案、纹饰等构成服饰广告的主要元素.中国古代服饰广告文化是中国民俗文化的重要组成部分,有着重要的文化意义和社会意义.     

A class of weighted dependence measures for bivariate failure time data

This paper considers a class of summary measures of the dependence between a pair of failure time variables over a finite follow-up region. The class consists of measures that are weighted averages of local dependence measures, and includes the cross-ratio-measure and finite region version of Kendall's τ; recently proposed by the authors. Two new special cases are identified that can avoid the need to estimate the bivariate survivor function and that admit explicit variance estimators. Nonparametric estimators of such dependence measures are proposed and are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal with variances that can be consistently estimated. Properties of selected estimators are evaluated in a simulation study, and the method is illustrated through an analysis of Australian Twin Study data.