高校人事统计信息工作存在的问题及对策

通过对高校人事统计信息工作重要性的论述和统计工作现状的分析,指出当前高校人事统计工作存在的主要问题是信息时效性差,缺乏分析预测能力等,继而分析了产生问题的原因。在此基础上,提出加强人事统计信息化建设,加大人事统计数据分析力度,提高人事统计信息利用价值的建议。     

Estimation methods for time‐dependent AUC models with survival data

The performance of clinical tests for disease screening is often evaluated using the area under the receiver‐operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Recent developments have extended the traditional setting to the AUC with binary time‐varying failure status. Without considering covariates, our first theme is to propose a simple and easily computed nonparametric estimator for the time‐dependent AUC. Moreover, we use generalized linear models with time‐varying coefficients to characterize the time‐dependent AUC as a function of covariate values. The corresponding estimation procedures are proposed to estimate the parameter functions of interest. The derived limiting Gaussian processes and the estimated asymptotic variances enable us to construct the approximated confidence regions for the AUCs. The finite sample properties of our proposed estimators and inference procedures are examined through extensive simulations. An analysis of the AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG) 175 data is further presented to show the applicability of the proposed methods. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 38:8–26; 2010 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

高校教育统计在教学评估中的地位与作用

高校教育统计工作是开展教学评估的前提和基础,是组织教学评估工作的重要依据和确保教学评估成效的有效手段,在教学评估中具有十分重要的地位和作用。做好高校教育统计工作,除了领导重视和保证投入外,还应重点健全管理制度、加强队伍建设和转变工作思路。     

Modeling the Agreement of Discrete Bivariate Survival Times using Kappa Coefficient

Using local kappa coefficients, we develop a method to assess the agreement between two discrete survival times that are measured on the same subject by different raters or methods. We model the marginal distributions for the two event times and local kappa coefficients in terms of covariates. An estimating equation is used for modeling the marginal distributions and a pseudo-likelihood procedure is used to estimate the parameters in the kappa model. The performance of the estimation procedure is examined through simulations. The proposed method can be extended to multivariate discrete survival distributions.     

统计在伦理学中的应用现状分析

在伦理学逐渐成为“显学”的今天,方法创新业已成为应用伦理学发展的内在要求。从ScienceDirectOnline、中国期刊全文数据库和中国优秀博硕士学位论文全文数据库所收录的伦理学论文以及国内外伦理学著作的相关情况可以分析比较出统计方法在国内外伦理学研究中的应用现状。统计在我国伦理学中的应用日趋加大,但仍处在起步阶段,与国外相比,总体应用水平较低。统计方法在我国伦理学中的应用前景广阔,其广泛应用有利于提高我国伦理学研究的广度、深度和精密度。     

Exact null distributions of quadratic distribution-free statistics for two-way classification

We present new techniques for computing exact distributions of ‘Friedman-type’ statistics. Representing the null distribution by a generating function allows for the use of general, not necessarily integer-valued rank scores. Moreover, we use symmetry properties of the multivariate generating function to accelerate computations. The methods also work for cases with ties and for permutation statistics. We discuss some applications: the classical Friedman rank test, the normal scores test, the Friedman permutation test, the Cochran–Cox test and the Kepner–Robinson test. Finally, we shortly discuss self-made software for computing exact p-values.     

TWO-WAY CHANGE-POINT MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION

Exact null and alternative distributions of the two-way maximally selected x² for interaction between the ordered rows and columns are derived for each of the normal and Poisson models, respectively. The method is one of the multiple comparison procedures for ordered parameters and is useful for defining a block interaction or a two-way change-point model as a simple alternative to the two-way additive model. The construction of a confidence region for the two-way change-point is then described. An important application is found in a dose-response clinical trial with ordered categorical responses, where detecting the dose level which gives significantly higher responses than the lower doses can be formulated as a problem of detecting a change in the interaction effects.     

On prediction and mean squared error

Practical questions motivate the search for predictors either of an as yet unobserved random vector, or of a random function of a parameter. An extension of the classical UMVUE theory is presented to cover such situations. In includes a Rao-Blackwell-type theorem, a Cramer-Rao-type inequality, and necessary and sufficient conditions for a predictor to minimize the mean squared error uniformly in the parameter. Applications are considered to the problem of selected means, the species problem, and the examination of some u-v estimates of Robbins (1988).     

相依同分布样本极值的分布

讨论了相互不独立的同分布样本的极大值和极小值的分布,给出了分布的部分解析表达式。作为这个结果的应用,还讨论了一类重要统计量的分布的解析表达式,给出了相应的结果。     

Conditional estimation of average on the basis of weighting data

LetF(x,y) be a distribution function of a two dimensional random variable (X,Y). We assume that a distribution functionF _x(x) of the random variableX is known. The variableX will be called an auxiliary variable. Our purpose is estimation of the expected valuem=E(Y) on the basis of two-dimensional simple sample denoted by:U=[(X ₁, Y₁)…(X_n, Y_n)]=[X Y]. LetX=[X ₁…X _n]andY=[Y ₁…Y _n].This sample is drawn from a distribution determined by the functionF(x,y). LetX _(k)be the k-th (k=1, …,n) order statistic determined on the basis of the sampleX. The sampleU is truncated by means of this order statistic into two sub-samples: % MathType!End!2!1! and % MathType!End!2!1!.Let % MathType!End!2!1! and % MathType!End!2!1! be the sample means from the sub-samplesU _k,1 andU _k,2, respectively. The linear combination % MathType!End!2!1! of these means is the conditional estimator of the expected valuem. The coefficients of this linear combination depend on the distribution function of auxiliary variable in the pointx _(k).We can show that this statistic is conditionally as well as unconditionally unbiased estimator of the averagem. The variance of this estimator is derived. The variance of the statistic % MathType!End!2!1! is compared with the variance of the order sample mean. The generalization of the conditional estimation of the mean is considered, too.