投资项目决策中的财务风险分析——以污水处理BOT项目为例

针对投资项目现金流的构成,分析各主要经济要素变化趋势,进行投资项目财务风险指标的模拟计算与统计分析,应用风险概率积分模型对项目财务风险进行度量,并根据投资商对风险的好恶程度,进行项目投资风险决策。     

Algebraic exact inference for rater agreement models

In recent years, a method for sampling from conditional distributions for categorical data has been presented by Diaconis and Sturmfels. Their algorithm is based on the algebraic theory of toric ideals which are used to create so called “Markov Bases”. The Diaconis-Sturmfels algorithm leads to a non-asymptotic Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithm for exact inference on some classes of models, such as log-linear models. In this paper we apply the Diaconis-Sturmfels algorithm to a set of models arising from the rater agreement problem with special attention to the multi-rater case. The relevant Markov bases are explicitly computed and some results for simplify the computation are presented. An extended example on a real data set shows the wide applicability of this methodology. Partially supported by MIUR Cofin03 (G. Consonni) and by INdAM projectAlgebraic Statistics.     

国内美籍华裔文学研究论文分析(1980-2005)

本文对《中国期刊全文数据库》和《报刊资料索引》中收录的1980—2005年国内美籍华裔文学研究论文从年代分布、期刊分布、作者分布和主题分布等方面进行了统计分析。文章从论文的数量、质量、形式、主题、研究队伍等方面讨论美籍华裔文学研究的发展态势,指出,美籍华裔文学研究从80年代起经历了一个较为缓慢的过程,到本世纪走向成熟。研究者队伍、论文的内容、层次呈多样化,但目前还存在诸多空白需要填补。     

统计信息系统与统计信息技术

随着现代统计科学体系的不断完善和信息技术的快速渗透,统计信息系统已逐步成熟并普及,催生了统计信息技术研究领域。文章阐释了统计信息系统概念,并给出统计信息技术体系的基本框架。     

体裁分析法与写作产出

语言学习是一个输入→吸收→输出的循环过程。吸收过程中大量的操练活动是确保有效输出的关键环节。文章试探讨写作教学中议论文体裁的范文输入及范文体裁分析操练方式能否帮助学习者的语篇图式结构从母语模式向目的语模式转换,并在写作中有效输出。     

The Statistical Analysis of Preference Data

A new statistic and a new method of analysis are proposed for data where a sample of respondents provides a preference ordering of some treatments. The new preference statistic is compared with the Friedman statistic, particularly for an example where 12 home owners each ranked four grasses. The new analysis provides a more natural and less misleading assessment of where the differences occur than an analysis based on the rank sums of the Friedman statistic. The new analysis is also more robust to deviations from the classical location problem, is not related to election methods known to have undesirable characteristics and adheres to the Condorcet criterion for election methods.     

Ras家族癌基因的统计分析

本文对１９９３年ＩＲＬ Ｐｒｅｓｓ基因库中的Ｒａｓ家族的８９个癌基因序进行了统计分析，计算了编码密码子的使用频率和氨基酸的相对使用丰度；非编码区中内含子的碱基使用及保守位点，并与有关文献作了比较。     

Category Distinguishability and Observer Agreement

It is common in the medical, biological, and social sciences for the categories into which an object is classified not to have a fully objective definition. Theoretically speaking the categories are therefore not completely distinguishable. The practical extent of their distinguishability can be measured when two expert observers classify the same sample of objects. It is shown, under reasonable assumptions, that the matrix of joint classification probabilities is quasi-symmetric, and that the symmetric matrix component is non-negative definite. The degree of distinguishability between two categories is defined and is used to give a measure of overall category distinguishability. It is argued that the kappa measure of observer agreement is unsatisfactory as a measure of overall category distinguishability.     

A ONE-SIDED TRIMMED MEAN ESTIMATOR FOR THE MEAN OF POSITIVELY SKEWED DISTRIBUTIONS

This article proposes estimating the mean of positively skewed distributions by a one-sided trimmed mean estimator, called the upper-mean, and uses it to assess soil contact exposures at sites with toxic contamination. An optimal upper-mean is found by maximising the probability of the estimator falling in a target range. Monte Carlo studies are conducted for several positively skewed distributions and for a distribution obtained from real data. The simulation results show that the upper-mean is a better estimator than the upper 95% confidence limit estimator currently used, because it is more probable that the estimator is covered by the target range.     

2013年东台市新农合住院患者疾病统计分析

目的：分析2013年东台市新农合住院患者疾病构成,为进一步提升新农合政策实效与医院临床管理提供决策依据。方法：对东台市2013年参保新农合住院患者疾病按照国际疾病标准（ICD-10）进行分类汇总,并对前五位疾病构成分性别、年龄组进行顺位对比分析。结果：全年新农合患者共计84958例,循环系统疾病、呼吸系统疾病、消化系统疾病、肿瘤和损伤、中毒和外因的某些其他后果疾病为该市主要疾病构成。结论：加强医疗服务和医院管理工作,提高医院医疗诊断、治疗、服务水平,促进新农合政策有效实施。