On MLEs of the parameters of a modified Weibull distribution based on record values

The modified Weibull distribution can be used quite effectively to model complex data from mechanical engineering or survival analysis studies that posses a monotonic or a bathtub-shape hazard rate. In this paper, we study the MLEs of the parameters of a modified Weibull distribution model in the presence of upper kth record values. The existence and uniqueness of the MLEs are proven in this case. Real data analysis is performed for illustrative purposes.     

Will You Die for Your Country? Workplace Death in an Era of Mass Incarceration

People with criminal records in the United States continue to face limited employment opportunities due to social stigma and legal barriers. In contrast to the civilian sector, the military conducts a “whole person” evaluation to screen potential recruits and regularly hires people with felony and misdemeanor records. Moreover, evidence suggests that the military serves as a socially integrative institution and may facilitate desistance from future crimes. However, critics argue that the military exacerbates inequalities by subjecting marginalized communities to the unequal burden of service. Using the data obtained from the Army, we examine the relative risks of combat exposure and casualties between enlisted soldiers with and without criminal records who joined between 2002 and 2009. The results suggest that soldiers with felony and misdemeanor records are more likely to be assigned to combat occupations than those without criminal records. We also find that among soldiers assigned to positions with low combat exposure, ex-offenders face a higher risk of death compared to those without criminal records. Findings do not dispute the idea that the military facilitates desistance from future crimes and provides second chances to people with criminal records, but reaffirm the fact that military service costs lives and limbs.     

孙中山的社会福利思想探析

孙中山的社会福利观一方面继承了中国社会福利思想的传统,又受到资产阶级民主革命和西方福利思想的影响,形成他颇具特色的社会福利观,成为其民生主义的重要内容。孙中山关注社会弱势群体,认为为国民提供社会福利是政府的责任,倡导社会福利的制度化和法治化建设。孙中山的社会福利思想对民国的社会福利实践产生了重要影响,在中国社会思想史上占有重要的地位。     

Asymptotic inference in poverty indices: an empirical processes approach

We derive an empirical poverty index containing most of those proposed in the literature. Then, we study its asymptotic behavior by using empirical processes theory. From the results obtained, we derive a Wald-type test for comparing a vector of theoretical poverty indices to a vector of reference indices. We study the test statistic under the null hypothesis of equality, fixed alternatives, and a sequence of local alternatives. A simulation experiment conducted shows that our test performs well for exponential and Pareto data.     

汉唐“风土记”中的西域风土映像——兼论华夷文化观在汉唐时期的转变

汉唐时期,由于中外文化交流的兴盛,涌现出诸如《高僧法显西行记》、《佛国记》、《奉使高丽记》、《大唐西域记》等大量僧俗士人的西域行纪。这些著作的作者,以亲身的见闻和阅历,记载了大量的异域见闻,对于向中原人介绍异域风俗,促进西域文化在中原地区的传播,起了重要的作用。借助这种生动的西域风土映像,中原士人传统的华夷文化观念也发生了微调,变得更为开放,对西域文化也更易于理解、认知和接受。     

技术特征、关系结构与社会化购买行为

社会化媒体技术与社会关系网络促进了社会化商务(SC)的价值创造,如何有效利用技术与用户的关系结构是 SC 企业提高其平台购买转化率的关键． 从双重视角探索技术与关系如何影响用户购买决策,基于刺激―机体―反应框架,构建了以技术可供性和强、弱关系为刺激因素,信息诊断性和意外发现性为内在机体状态,社会化购买意向为“反应”的理论模型,探索了用户社会化购买行为的发生机制． 以具有社会化购买体验的微信用户作为研究对象,运用 SmartPLS 3.0 对模型进行了路径检验和假设分析． 研究结果发现: 技术可供性与弱关系对信息诊断性和信息意外发现性具有正向影响; 弱关系对信息意外发现性的影响作用大于强关系; 信息诊断性正向影响信息意外发现性,信息诊断性与意外发现性对社会化购买意向均有显著正向影响; 然而,强关系对信息意外发现性的影响不显著． 信息诊断性与信息意外发现性部分中介了技术可供性对社会化购买意向的影响,完全中介了弱关系对社会化购买意向的影响,信息诊断性部分中介了强关系对社会化购买意向的影响． 为进一步探究社会化购买行为提供 了理论基础和实践指导．     

分利秩序、治理取向与场域耦合：一项来自“过渡型社区”的经验研究

城镇化推进下的“过渡型社区”成为城乡分治的模糊地带,利益和资源的不断输入,使得其治理主体和治理场域发生重构。基层治理视角下的村民自治被“分利性”进行价值侵占。就如何厘清“过渡型社区”利益博弈秩序中,出现“弱治理强分利”与“强治理弱分利”两种分化样态的内在机理与演化过程。基于绍兴安置社区、武汉城中村两地治理实践经验表明,在“国家 市场 社会”三重结构化关系中,社会治理单元在“城乡转变”过程中呈现出分利制度异化、农民利益外显、基层治理弱化等具体表征。其中治理主体、治理对象在“国家 市场 社会”场域耦合中形塑出的治理取向,揭示出国家基层治理现代化转型的多元面向。     

统购统销制度运行发展过程的逻辑考查

统购统销是我国计划经济时期物资短缺造就的制度产物,是国家主导社会资源配置的强制性制度变迁结果.为了使制度有效运行发展,国家在农产品资源社会生产总过程中实行“定产、定购、定交、定消和定销”政策,当制度执行偏差影响到民众生产生活时,他们便会通过自主行为来表达自身利益诉求和对国家政策的不满.随着社会生产力发展,统购统销制度的弊端日益凸显,严重束缚了社会经济的发展,最终被市场经济制度所取代.     

Confidence and prediction intervals based on interpolated records

In several statistical problems, nonparametric confidence intervals for population quantiles can be constructed and their coverage probabilities can be computed exactly, but cannot in general be rendered equal to a pre-determined level. The same difficulty arises for coverage probabilities of nonparametric prediction intervals for future observations. One solution to this difficulty is to interpolate between intervals which have the closest coverage probability from above and below to the pre-determined level. In this paper, confidence intervals for population quantiles are constructed based on interpolated upper and lower records. Subsequently, prediction intervals are obtained for future upper records based on interpolated upper records. Additionally, we derive upper bounds for the coverage error of these confidence and prediction intervals. Finally, our results are applied to some real data sets. Also, a comparison via a simulation study is done with similar classical intervals obtained before.