Bayesian prediction of order statistics with fixed and random sample sizes based on k-record values from Pareto distribution

In this paper, the two-parameter Pareto distribution is considered and the problem of prediction of order statistics from a future sample and that of its geometric mean are discussed. The Bayesian approach is applied to construct predictors based on observed k-record values for the cases when the future sample size is fixed and when it is random. Several Bayesian prediction intervals are derived. Finally, the results of a simulation study and a numerical example are presented for illustrating all the inferential procedures developed here.     

Estimation of variance in bivariate normal distribution after the preliminary test of homogeneity

A preliminary test estimator of variance in the bivariate normal distribution is proposed after the Pitman–Morgan test of homogeneity of two variances. The bias and mean square error of the estimator are derived. The relative efficiency (RE) of the preliminary test estimator is studied. Computations and 3D graphs of RE for different parameters are analyzed. In order to get the maximum RE, recommendations of the significance level for the preliminary test are given for various sample sizes by using the max–min criterion.     

Recovery of functions from transformed moments: A unified approach

Two approximations recovering the functions from their transformed moments are proposed. The upper bounds for the uniform rate of convergence are derived. In addition, the comparisons of the estimates of the cumulative distribution function and its density function with the empirical distribution and the kernel density estimates are conducted via a simulation study. The plots of recovered functions are presented for several examples as well.     

Shrinkage estimation of proportion via logit penalty

By releasing the unbiasedness condition, we often obtain more accurate estimators due to the bias–variance trade-off. In this paper, we propose a class of shrinkage proportion estimators which show improved performance over the sample proportion. We provide the “optimal” amount of shrinkage. The advantage of the proposed estimators is given theoretically as well as explored empirically by simulation studies and real data analyses.     

Precise large deviations for φ-mixing and UND random variables with long-tailed distributions

In this paper, we investigate the precise large deviations for sums of φ-mixing and UND random variables with long-tailed distributions. The asymptotic relations for non random sum and random sum of random variables with long-tailed distributions are obtained.     

Retrospective change detection in categorical time series

The aim of this paper is to propose methods of detecting change in the coefficients of a multinomial logistic regression model for categorical time series offline. The alternatives to the null hypothesis of stationarity can be either the hypothesis that it is not true, or that there is a temporary change in the sequence. We use the efficient score vector of the partial likelihood function. This has several advantages. First, the alternative value of the parameter does not have to be estimated; hence, we have a procedure that has a simple structure with only one parameter estimation using all available observations. This is in contrast with the generalized likelihood ratio-based change point tests. The efficient score vector is used in various ways. As a vector, its components correspond to the different components of the multinomial logistic regression model’s parameter vector. Using its quadratic form a test can be defined, where the presence of a change in any or all parameters is tested for. If there are too many parameters one can test for any subset while treating the rest as nuisance parameters. Our motivating example is a DNA sequence of four categories, and our test result shows that in the published data the distribution of the four categories is not stationary.     

Sample size estimation for comparing rates of change in K-group repeated count outcomes

Sample size estimation for comparing the rates of change in two-arm repeated measurements has been investigated by many investigators. In contrast, the literature has paid relatively less attention to sample size estimation for studies with multi-arm repeated measurements where the design and data analysis can be more complex than two-arm trials. For continuous outcomes, Jung and Ahn (2004 Jung, S., Ahn, C. (2004). K-sample test and sample size calculation for comparing slopes in data with repeated measurements. Biometrical J. 46(5):554–564.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Zhang and Ahn (2013 Zhang, S., Ahn, C. (2013). Sample size calculation for comparing time-averaged responses in k-group repeated measurement studies. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 58:283–291.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) have presented sample size formulas to compare the rates of change and time-averaged responses in multi-arm trials, using the generalized estimating equation (GEE) approach. To our knowledge, there has been no corresponding development for multi-arm trials with count outcomes. We present a sample size formula for comparing the rates of change in multi-arm repeated count outcomes using the GEE approach that accommodates various correlation structures, missing data patterns, and unbalanced designs. We conduct simulation studies to assess the performance of the proposed sample size formula under a wide range of designing configurations. Simulation results suggest that empirical type I error and power are maintained close to their nominal levels. The proposed method is illustrated using an epileptic clinical trial example.     

西部大开发所面临的环境代价问题及对策

我国西部地区生态环境脆弱,近年来由于经济发展过程中的一些不正确行为,使得西部地区生态环境问题日趋严重。实施西部大开发必然要面临着环境代价这一问题,为了有效地控制环境代价问题,必须一靠政府有效干预,正确引导;二靠加强技术进步转变资源配置方式;此外,还要牢固地树立“可持续发展”观念。     

广州大型零售企业发展滞后的成因及其治理思路

与上海、北京、深圳相比,广州一直没有酝酿出像上海百联、北京国美、深圳华润万家这样的全国性零售龙头企业。本文结合国际零售企业的发展脉络,在对零售企业发展的影响因素及其驱动力机行进行理论分析的基础上,从企业战略构建能力和外部环境因素两大角度探讨制约广州本土零售巨头诞生的成因。论文认为,广州本土零售企业要做强做大必须重新进行定位、创新经营模式,强化资本运作,加强高端人才的培养和引进;同时,还应该深化业态创新、实施差异化经营,寻找适合自己的发展道路。