英国文化产业及其政府行为

文化产业被英国视为其优势产业,也是经济增长和未来可持续发展的主要动力之一。与欧洲大陆其他国家相比,英国文化产业有其发展时间早、一体化管理、大文化视野等特点。英国在发展文化产业过程中政府所起的作用非常突出,既有国家层面的总体设计、系统规划,又有地方层面对老工业城市的文化复兴,以及对社区文化和公众文化可及性的关注。     

广州大型零售企业发展滞后的成因及其治理思路

与上海、北京、深圳相比,广州一直没有酝酿出像上海百联、北京国美、深圳华润万家这样的全国性零售龙头企业。本文结合国际零售企业的发展脉络,在对零售企业发展的影响因素及其驱动力机行进行理论分析的基础上,从企业战略构建能力和外部环境因素两大角度探讨制约广州本土零售巨头诞生的成因。论文认为,广州本土零售企业要做强做大必须重新进行定位、创新经营模式,强化资本运作,加强高端人才的培养和引进;同时,还应该深化业态创新、实施差异化经营,寻找适合自己的发展道路。     

Confidence intervals for extreme Pareto-type quantiles

In this paper, we revisit the construction of confidence intervals for extreme quantiles of Pareto-type distributions. A novel asymptotic pivotal quantity is proposed for these quantile estimators, which leads to new asymptotic confidence intervals that exhibit more accurate coverage probability. This pivotal quantity also allows for the construction of a saddle-point approximation, from which a second set of new confidence intervals follows. The small-sample properties and utility of these confidence intervals are studied using simulations and a case study from insurance.     

Bayesian sample‐size determination methods considering both worthwhileness and unpromisingness for exploratory two‐arm randomized clinical trials with binary endpoints

A randomized exploratory clinical trial comparing an experimental treatment with a control treatment on a binary endpoint is often conducted to make a go or no‐go decision. Such an exploratory trial needs to have an adequate sample size such that it will provide convincing evidence that the experimental treatment is either worthwhile or unpromising relative to the control treatment. In this paper, we propose three new sample‐size determination methods for an exploratory trial, which utilize the posterior probabilities calculated from predefined efficacy and inefficacy criteria leading to a declaration of the worthwhileness or unpromisingness of the experimental treatment. Simulation studies, including numerical investigation, showed that all three methods could declare the experimental treatment as worthwhile or unpromising with a high probability when the true response probability of the experimental treatment group is higher or lower, respectively, than that of the control treatment group.     

基于Hawkes过程中美股市大幅波动互激效应的研究

近年来,由于中美经济联系日趋紧密,中美股票市场大幅波动的互激效应明显增强。本文考虑中美股市时差和法定节假日差异等因素,运用标值Hawkes过程对2006-2017年CSI300和S&P500大幅波动收益率数据进行建模,结果表明：（1）中美股市大幅波动互激效应存在不对称性,美股市场大幅波动对中国股市的互激效应更强;（2）中美股市大幅波动的幅度对互激效应不存在显著影响;（3）中美股票市场对于大幅波动互激效应的消化速度存在差异,中国股票市场消化美股大幅波动互激效应的速度较快。本研究对金融市场监管者和投资者均有一定意义。     

Keeping Surveys Valid,Reliable, and Useful: A Tutorial

This tutorial focuses on how to produce reliable and generalizable data from random‐digit‐dialing (RDD) landline and cell phone surveys. The article notes that RDD response rates have declined and explores the impact of this pronounced decline. The tutorial addresses order, response mode, and many other biases, sample size, cooperation and response rates, weighting, and hybrid designs‐all using examples from risk analysis to illustrate the key points. The article ends with a brief review of the advantages and disadvantages of major Internet and paper surveys tools, and how these can be molded and sometimes combined in repeated, longitudinal, and other designs to answer questions about risk preferences and perceptions.     

新形势下高校辅导员工作模式探讨

本文根据几年来的实践工作经验 ,对未来高校辅导员应采取怎样的工作模式提出了一点见解 ,并将其具体概括为“大船模式”和“系级文化”两个方面。     

我国高校英语大班教学的现状及对策

随着近年来高校不断扩招，师资短缺，许多学校的英语教学不得不以大班授课的形式来完成。本文首先阐述了大班教学带来的若干问题，然后提出了一些有针对性地解决方案及对策。     

随机过程的概念解析

通过分析Bernoulli试验对应的随机变量序列,给出随机过程的直观定义导致的矛盾.借助测度论的基本概念系统,解析随机过程的数学定义,给出随机过程样本函数与随机过程实现的概念一致性.     

三向剖分域上的二元二次样条插值与逼近

本文主要用B－网方法研究了平行六边形区域在三向剖分△_6~3下的二元二次样条插值的存在性、唯一性及逼近度问题。在本文末尾我们举例说明本方法是可行的。