论辞格理论与辞格发展之间的互动

古代修辞理论与辞格发展之间存在着复杂的互动关系。本文通过个案分析,证实了三点:其一,辞格的发展、演变本质上依赖于语言、文体本身提供的可能性,辞格理论的影响只是在发展方向上的诱导,并且这种诱导并不是总能成功;其二,这种诱导以理论被辞格使用者认同为前提,而特定文化背景或文学思潮可增强这种认同感,从而强化诱导;其三,当辞格使用者面对关于这一辞格的不同的甚至对立的理论主张时,他们会作出折中或取舍;而理论创造者面对辞格的发展变化,也有可能作出新的概括或补充。     

对创新高校思想政治理论课实践环节的思考

思想政治理论课实践教学环节是理论课教学体系的重要部分,是提升教学效果的有效途径之一。目前,实践教学存在着思想认识上有偏差、缺乏规范有效的组织管理、缺少资金和基地保障、缺乏科学的考核和评价体系等诸多问题,需要通过转变观念、建立和完善组织管理机制、设立专项经费和实践基地、建立健全实践教学评价体系等途径,使理论课实践教学更具有可操作性和实效性。     

An Integrated Risk Assessment Model of Township‐Scaled Land Subsidence Based on an Evidential Reasoning Algorithm and Fuzzy Set Theory

Land subsidence risk assessment (LSRA) is a multi‐attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem and is often characterized by both quantitative and qualitative attributes with various types of uncertainty. Therefore, the problem needs to be modeled and analyzed using methods that can handle uncertainty. In this article, we propose an integrated assessment model based on the evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm and fuzzy set theory. The assessment model is structured as a hierarchical framework that regards land subsidence risk as a composite of two key factors: hazard and vulnerability. These factors can be described by a set of basic indicators defined by assessment grades with attributes for transforming both numerical data and subjective judgments into a belief structure. The factor‐level attributes of hazard and vulnerability are combined using the ER algorithm, which is based on the information from a belief structure calculated by the Dempster‐Shafer (D‐S) theory, and a distributed fuzzy belief structure calculated by fuzzy set theory. The results from the combined algorithms yield distributed assessment grade matrices. The application of the model to the Xixi‐Chengnan area, China, illustrates its usefulness and validity for LSRA. The model utilizes a combination of all types of evidence, including all assessment information—quantitative or qualitative, complete or incomplete, and precise or imprecise—to provide assessment grades that define risk assessment on the basis of hazard and vulnerability. The results will enable risk managers to apply different risk prevention measures and mitigation planning based on the calculated risk states.     

Elementary renewal theorems for widely dependent random variables with applications to precise large deviations

Abstract

On the basis of Wang and Cheng (J. Math. Anal. Appl. 384 (2011) 597–606), this paper further investigates elementary renewal theorems for counting processes generated by random walks with widely orthant dependent increments. The obtained results improve the corresponding ones of the above-mentioned paper mainly in the sense of weakening the moment conditions on the positive parts of the increments. Meanwhile, a revised version of strong law of large numbers for random walks with widely orthant dependent increments is established, which improves Theorem 1.4 of Wang and Cheng (2011 Wang, Y., and D. Cheng. 2011. Basic renewal theorems for a random walk with widely dependent increments and their applications. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 384 (2):597–606. doi:10.1016/j.jmaa.2011.06.010.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) by enlarging the regions of dominating coefficients. Finally, by using the above results, some precise large deviation results for a nonstandard renewal risk model are established, in which the innovations are widely orthant dependent random variables with common heavy tails, and the inter-arrival times are also widely orthant dependent.     

A surplus process involving a compound Poisson counting process and applications

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce a surplus process involving a compound Poisson counting process, which is a generalization of the classical ruin model where the claim-counting process is a homogeneous Poisson process. The incentive is to model batch arrival of claims using a counting process that is based on a compound distribution. This reduces the difficulty of modeling claim amounts and is consistent with industrial data. Recursive formula, some properties and relevant main ruin theory results are provided. Further, we consider applications involving zero-truncated negative binomial and zero-truncated binomial batch arrivals when the claim amounts follow exponential or Erlang distribution.     

当前马克思主义哲学研究中的五个误区

实现马克思主义哲学的理论创新,须走出哲学研究中的诸多误区,诸如学术化误区、体系化误区、原理化误区、注释化误区、实用主义误区等,这些长久形成的研究习惯已经成为马克思主义哲学理论创新的重要障碍,深刻认识并克服这些问题是当下研究工作的首要前提.     

最简方案框架下二语习得者的句法发展模式研究

在最简方案框架下，讨论中介语特征理论对研究二语习得中功能语类习得顺序的启示，探讨二语习得中句法发展模式来是疑问句式的发展规律，认为二语特征参数的设置不是一蹴而就的，而是靠渐进地逐一掌握词汇形态特征来逐渐熟悉语类特征，从而逐渐发展中介语系统。     

基于模糊理论的城市快速路交通状态检测算法

通过分析流量、速度、占有率与城市快速路交通状态的关系,提出了一种基于模糊理论的城市快速路交通状态检测算法。通过在深圳市某快速路上的实际验证表明,该算法在能保证一定的检测率情况下,具有较低的误报率和较少的检测时间,表明此方法在实际应用中是切实可行的。     

4万亿经济激励计划背后的经济学问题

凯恩斯的宏观经济理论既不涉及现实的政治维度，也不关注微观经济层面的资源配置效率问题，这样的理论应用于现实的结果很可能是弊大于利。作为应用凯恩斯理论的总需求管理思想的产物，中国4万亿的经济刺激计划在政治层面难以避免寻租和腐败、政治权力固化等问题，在经济层面有可能导致资源配置的扭曲。虽然政府出台了各种监管措施以预防这种可能出现的弊病，但经验和理论都告诉我们这些措施的有效性是有限的。