论近代甘宁青皮毛贸易发展的影响性因素及特点

本文立足于对甘宁青近代皮毛贸易发展历程的前期研究,从时代环境和国内外市场需求、区域政治环境和贸易政策及民族和交通状况三方面剖析了影响其发展的主要因素,进而对皮毛贸易发展中所表现出的特点作了较为细致的阐述。     

A new heteroscedastic regression to analyze mass loss of wood in civil construction in Brazil

A heteroscedastic regression based on the odd log-logistic Marshall–Olkin normal (OLLMON) distribution is defined by extending previous models. Some structural properties of this distribution are presented. The estimation of the parameters is addressed by maximum likelihood. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and some scenarios, various simulations investigate the performance of the heteroscedastic OLLMON regression. We use residual analysis to detect influential observations and to check the model assumptions. The new regression explains the mass loss of different wood species in civil construction in Brazil.     

民营科技企业创新服务体系研究

民营科技企业创新服务体系是指民营科技企业提供社会化、专业化服务以支撑、促进创新活动和提高创新效率的服务网络。近几年来,我国民营科技企业的创新服务体系随着改革开放的发展得到日益加强,但由于民营科技企业自身的特点也存在许多困难,表现为服务体系模式不明确、中介服务功能单一、创新服务网络化协作较弱、立法管理相对滞后。因此,必须大力规范和发展民营科技企业的创新服务机构,加强和完善创新服务体系,以推动民营科技企业的创新能力。     

A simple two-step procedure using the Fellegi–Sunter model for frequency-based record linkage

The widely used Fellegi–Sunter model for probabilistic record linkage does not leverage information contained in field values and consequently leads to identical classification of match status regardless of whether records agree on rare or common values. Since agreement on rare values is less likely to occur by chance than agreement on common values, records agreeing on rare values are more likely to be matches. Existing frequency-based methods typically rely on knowledge of error probabilities associated with field values and frequencies of agreed field values among matches, often derived using prior studies or training data. When such information is unavailable, applications of these methods are challenging. In this paper, we propose a simple two-step procedure for frequency-based matching using the Fellegi–Sunter framework to overcome these challenges. Matching weights are adjusted based on frequency distributions of the agreed field values among matches and non-matches, estimated by the Fellegi–Sunter model without relying on prior studies or training data. Through a real-world application and simulation, our method is found to produce comparable or better performance than the unadjusted method. Furthermore, frequency-based matching provides greater improvement in matching accuracy when using poorly discriminating fields with diminished benefit as the discriminating power of matching fields increases.     

农村居民消费对我国经济增长影响分析

本文通过建立面板数据模型测度了农村居民消费对我国经济增长的影响效应,认为农村居民消费对我国经济增长具有正向促进作用但不够明显,分析了扩大农村居民消费需求促进经济增长所面临的障碍因素并提出了相应的对策建议。     

能源价格波动对中国物价水平的潜在与实际影响

目的/意义原油作为重要的工业原料、大宗商品和战略储备物资,其价格波动对全球经济发展具有重大影响,对原油价格进行预测是能源经济领域的热点研究课题。对国际原油价格预测的主要方法进行系统梳理并展望未来研究方向,有助于该研究领域的纵深发展。设计/方法基于295篇国际期刊文献,对国际油价预测的发展阶段、发表期刊、研究机构等进行归纳总结,然后对近二十年油价预测领域的主要研究方法进行系统梳理和分析,最后对油价预测工作进行评述和趋势展望。结论/发现自2008年金融危机后,油价预测研究快速发展,相关文章主要发表于能源经济领域的权威期刊《Energy Economic》。现有油价预测方法主要包括计量模型、机器学习和混合预测模型。展望未来,利用高频日内交易数据,融合计量和机器学习前沿方法,对原油价格进行区间预测或概率密度预测是值得探索的方向,此外还应深化油价预测结果的实际应用价值。     

三支决策模型及其研究现状分析

目的/意义二分类群体决策问题广泛存在于社会民生和区域经济中的各个领域,例如：公务员面试、酒店推荐以及交通出行路线选择等。因此,需要提出合理的二分类群体决策方法,从而为政府和相关企业提供决策支持。设计/方法在考虑个体后悔规避行为的基础上,建立二分类选择过程,获得个体和群体关于备选方案的二分类向量;进一步建立二分类共识过程,协助个体调整偏好,从而获得具有较高共识水平的二分类。结论/发现从最小调整成本视角,建立了后悔规避行为下二分类群体决策方法,更加贴近现实决策情景,进一步丰富了群体决策方法的应用范围。     

Catholicism, Job Security Regulations and Female Employment: A Micro-level Analysis of Esping-Andersen's Social Catholicism Thesis

This article explores the religious roots of job security regulations in Western democracies by putting Esping-Andersen's famous social Catholicism thesis to the test. Esping-Andersen argues that due to religious socialization, Catholics exhibit more conservative family values, i.e. they tend to support the male breadwinner model. To sustain this model of family organization, Catholics are expected to support job security regulations. These regulations have been described in the literature as important determinants of gender-segregated labour markets and low female employment rates. Data from this article show that while Catholics indeed support more conservative family models, so do Reformed Protestants and religious persons in general. Furthermore, no relationship between religious denomination and preferences for job security regulations can be observed. The analysis thus refutes Esping-Andersen's social Catholicism thesis.     

网络内容的技术控制模式建构与评析

基于维纳的经典控制模式,依照接入控制、过滤控制、编辑控制、分析控制四个流程,尝试建构了网络内容的技术控制模式。此模式着眼于复杂的网络传播环境,反映了多传播时代的多向反馈,体现了效果/批判的范式融合,综合了立体多元的控制手段。     

Palliative care patients' experiences of healthcare treatment

Kennett C, Payne M. Palliative care patients' experiences of healthcare treatment Int J Soc Welfare 2010: 19: 262–271 © 2009 The Author(s), Journal compilation © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the International Journal of Social Welfare. This article reports on a thematic analysis of the opinions of 34 palliative care patients about medical and healthcare treatment expressed in comments, narratives and discussions during a series of facilitated group discussions undertaken as part of training events for medical students. Palliative care patients often have long healthcare careers, which enables them to compare different professionals and services, thus offering a more powerful and complex analysis of patient experience than that obtainable from analysis of complaints or satisfaction surveys, and permits some understanding to be obtained of the attitudes that condition evaluations of services. The patients balanced negative views with positive experiences. They appreciated open, listening, equal and friendly relationships with professionals in which careful explanation fostered their confidence in the overall service. They criticised inflexible services that did not consider their broad needs, and in which relationships with professionals were characterised by busy‐ness and professional distance.