十年建设时期之左倾错误对中共权力运行秩序构建的危害

1956-1966年这一社会主义主义道路的艰辛探索期,因各种因素而产生的“左”倾错误,给党的权力运行的实践、权力运行秩序本身的规范化构建带来了危害：在政党文化层面,以阶级斗争为纲的错误倾向,严重干扰了权力运行的正确方向;在政治社会化层面,日益呈现“革命”性和庸俗化倾向,封建观念未能消解;在组织权力运行体制层面,日益高度集权化,削弱了权力监督内生动力;在权力运行体制内部关系层面,法制建设衰退化,加剧了制度规范的总体缺失;在政治关系层面,党际关系、党与社会组织关系日益封闭,造成权力外部监督群的缺位;在政治行为层面,初步探索的制度型反腐路径逐渐摒弃.     

A Bayesian nonparametric estimator based on left censored data

Summary This paper introduces a Bayesian nonparametric estimator for an unknown distribution function based on left censored observations. Hjort (1990)/Lo (1993) introduced Bayesian nonparametric estimators derived from beta/beta-neutral processes which allow for right censoring. These processes are taken as priors from the class ofneutral to the right processes (Doksum, 1974). The Kaplan-Meier nonparametric product limit estimator can be obtained from these Bayesian nonparametric estimators in the limiting case of a vague prior. The present paper introduces what can be seen as the correspondingleft beta/beta-neutral process prior which allow for left censoring. The Bayesian nonparametyric estimator is obtained as in the corresponding product limit estimator based on left censored data.     

Truth,misinterpretation, or left-wing McCarthyism?

It is “left-wing McCarthyism” to suggest that there was anything morally questionable or idiosyncratic about Talcott Parsons's 1948 effort to recruit displaced Soviet citizens for the Harvard Russian Research Center. There is no definite evidence that any of the people Parsons interviewed were “war criminals” by Nuremberg standards. The suggestion that Parsons aided possible Nazi collaborators stems from an ideologically motivated unwillingness to recognize the totalitarian and expansionist nature of the Soviet Union under Stalin which is unworthy of serious consideration.     

关于分段函数在分界点处的导数问题

文献[1]解决了绝对值函数的求导问题,本文将它推广到更一般、更普遍的分段函数的情形。在所证明的两个引理的基础上,给出了一个分段函数在界点处一阶导数存在的充要条件及其推论。     

农村留守儿童多维风险评估与干预——基于风险的社会放大理论框架

建立留守儿童风险评估与干预机制有助于加强留守儿童风险管理,推进留守儿童关爱和保护工作。通过构建多维风险评价指标体系,对湖南、贵州和安徽3省7县（市）14所中小学农村留守儿童面临的风险进行评估,并运用风险的社会放大理论分析框架,从信息机制和反应机制两方面分析农村留守儿童社会风险的放大和弱化原理。研究结果表明,留守儿童多维风险中发生频率最高的是教育失效、交往不足、环境不良、心理亚健康及身体亚健康等风险。危害最大的是意外事故和安全风险、双向犯罪及行为失范风险;最大的影响因素是父母亲监护的缺位。因此,建立留守儿童替代监护模式;构筑县乡村-家庭、学校-家庭、社会组织-家庭三条“风险预警带”;逐步减弱多维风险,推进留守儿童风险管理。     

从国际人道法看中日战争遗留爆炸物问题的解决

中日战争遗留爆炸物问题造成大量的平民伤亡,也给当地居民的生产和生活造成严重影响,因而社会各界都在探讨该问题的解决方法。国际人道法的核心是保护战争受难者,适用国际人道法来解决中日战争遗留爆炸物问题符合国际人道法的宗旨和目标,增加了保护人权的积极途径,符合《禁止化学武器公约》的规定,符合关于战争遗留爆炸物问题的议定书的相关规定,是可行的。其主要方法包括设定警告义务、明确清除责任、明确赔偿责任、建立监督机制等。     

Left divergence,right convergence: anarchists,Marxists, and nationalist polarization in the Ukrainian conflict, 2013–2014

ABSTRACT

The article traces nationalist polarization and divergence within the Ukrainian new left in response to the Maidan and Anti-Maidan protests in 2013–2014, and the military conflict in Eastern Ukraine. The ideological left-wing groups in the protests were too weak to push forward any independent progressive agenda. Instead of moving the respective campaigns to the left, they were increasingly converging with the right themselves and degraded into marginal supporters of either pro-Ukrainian or pro-Russian camps in the conflict. The liberal and libertarian left supported the Maidan movement on the basis of abstract self-organization, liberal values and anti-authoritarianism. In contrast, the Marxist-Leninists attempted to seize political opportunities from supporting more plebeian and decentralized Anti-Maidan protests and reacting to the far-right threat after the Maidan victory. They deluded themselves that Russian nationalists were not as reactionary as their Ukrainian counterparts and that the world-system crisis allowed them to exploit Russian anti-American politics for progressive purposes.     

Quantile regression methods for left-truncated and right-censored data

Left-truncated and right-censored (LTRC) data are encountered frequently due to a prevalent cohort sampling in follow-up studies. Because of the skewness of the distribution of survival time, quantile regression is a useful alternative to the Cox's proportional hazards model and the accelerated failure time model for survival analysis. In this paper, we apply the quantile regression model to LTRC data and develops an unbiased estimating equation for regression coefficients. The proposed estimation methods use the inverse probabilities of truncation and censoring weighting technique. The resulting estimator is uniformly consistent and asymptotically normal. The finite-sample performance of the proposed estimation methods is also evaluated using extensive simulation studies. Finally, analysis of real data is presented to illustrate our proposed estimation methods.     

（λ,μ）-模糊子半环与（λ,μ）-模糊理想

引入了（λ,μ）-模糊子半环及半环的（λ,μ）-模糊左理想、（λ,μ）-模糊右理想、（λ,μ）-模糊双边理想、（λ,μ）模糊双理想的概念，讨论了它们的一些较好的性质，并给出各种（λ,μ）-模糊理想的等价刻划．     

Reconstruction of the past failure times for the proportional reversed hazard rate model

The problem of reconstruction of the past failure times in the left-censored set-up is considered. Various reconstructors of time to failure of units censored in a left-censored sample from the proportional reversed hazard rate models are demonstrated. The maximum-likelihood, best unbiased and conditional median reconstructors are obtained. We also present two methods, non-Bayesian and Bayesian, for obtaining reconstruction intervals for the past failure times. Numerical example and a Monte Carlo simulation study are given to illustrate all the reconstruction methods discussed in this paper.