On asymptotic posterior normality for controlled branching processes

For a controlled branching process (CBP) with offspring distribution belonging to the power series family, the asymptotic normality of the posterior distribution of the basic parameter and the offspring mean is proved. As practical applications, we calculate asymptotic high probability density credibility sets for the offspring mean and we provide a rule to make inference about the value of this parameter. Moreover, the asymptotic posterior normality of the respective parameters of two classical branching models, namely the standard Galton–Watson process and the Galton–Watson process with immigration, is derived as particular cases of the CBP.     

The existence of waiting time moments for single server queues with mixed renewal and poisson inputs

The following queuing system is considered: Two independent recurrent input streams (streams 1 and 2) arrive at a server. It is assumed that stream 1 is of Poisson type. Three priority disciplines are studied in case that customers of type 1 have priority: head-of-the-line, preemptive-resume, and preemptive-repeat discipline. For all three cases, the limiting distribution function of actual waiting times of low-priority customers is considered, and conditions are given for the existence of moments related to these limiting distributions.     

Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Stochastic Differential Equations with Random Effects

Abstract. We consider N independent stochastic processes (X _i (t), t ∈ [0,T _i ]), i=1,…, N, defined by a stochastic differential equation with drift term depending on a random variable φ _i . The distribution of the random effect φ _i depends on unknown parameters which are to be estimated from the continuous observation of the processes X_i. We give the expression of the exact likelihood. When the drift term depends linearly on the random effect φ _i and φ _i has Gaussian distribution, an explicit formula for the likelihood is obtained. We prove that the maximum likelihood estimator is consistent and asymptotically Gaussian, when T _i =T for all i and N tends to infinity. We discuss the case of discrete observations. Estimators are computed on simulated data for several models and show good performances even when the length time interval of observations is not very large.     

Generalized estimating equations for mixtures with varying concentrations

A finite mixture model is considered in which the mixing probabilities vary from observation to observation. A parametric model is assumed for one mixture component distribution, while the others are nonparametric nuisance parameters. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) are proposed for the semi‐parametric estimation. Asymptotic normality of the GEE estimates is demonstrated and the lower bound for their dispersion (asymptotic covariance) matrix is derived. An adaptive technique is developed to derive estimates with nearly optimal small dispersion. An application to the sociological analysis of voting results is discussed. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 41: 217–236; 2013 © 2013 Statistical Society of Canada     

Asymptotic properties of a rank estimate in linear regression with symmetric non-identically distributed errors

In this article, a simple linear regression model with independent and symmetric but non-identically distributed errors is considered. Asymptotic properties of the rank regression estimate defined in Jaeckel [Estimating regression coefficients by minimizing the dispersion of the residuals, Ann. Math. Statist. 43 (1972), pp. 1449–1458] are studied. We show that the studied estimator is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. The cases of bounded and unbounded score functions are examined separately. The regularity conditions of the article are exemplified for finite mixture distributions.     

Designing an economically optimal repetitive group-sampling plan based on loss functions

Acceptance sampling is a quality assurance tool, which provides a rule for the producer and the consumer to make acceptance or rejection decision about a lot. This paper attempts to develop a more efficient sampling plan, variables repetitive group sampling plan, based on the total loss to the producer and consumer. To design this model, two constraints are considered to satisfy the opposing priorities and requirements of the producer and the consumer by using Acceptable quality level (AQL) and Limiting quality level (LQL) points on operating characteristic (OC) curve. The objective function of this model is constructed based on the total expected loss. In order to illustrate the application of the proposed model, an example is presented. In addition, the effects of process parameters on the optimal solution and the total expected loss are studied by performing a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the efficiency of the proposed model is compared with the variables single sampling plan, the variables double sampling plan and the repetitive group sampling plan of Balamurali and Jun (2006) in terms of average sample number, total expected loss and its difference with ideal OC curve.     

Efficient Inference for Longitudinal Data Varying‐coefficient Regression Models

Informative identification of the within‐subject correlation is essential in longitudinal studies in order to forecast the trajectory of each subject and improve the validity of inferences. In this paper, we fit this correlation structure by employing a time adaptive autoregressive error process. Such a process can automatically accommodate irregular and possibly subject‐specific observations. Based on the fitted correlation structure, we propose an efficient two‐stage estimator of the unknown coefficient functions by using a local polynomial approximation. This procedure does not involve within‐subject covariance matrices and hence circumvents the instability of calculating their inverses. The asymptotic normality of resulting estimators is established. Numerical experiments were conducted to check the finite sample performance of our method and an example of an application involving a set of medical data is also illustrated.     

Confidence intervals for impulse responses under departures from normality

Monte Carlo evidence shows that in structural VAR models with fat-tailed or skewed innovations the coverage accuracy of impulse response confidence intervals may deterorate substantially compared to the same model with Gaussian innovations. Empirical evidance suggests that such departures from normality are quite plausible for economic time series. The simulation results suggest that applied researchers are best off using nonparametric bootstrap intervals for impulse responses, regardless of whether or not there is evidence of fat tails or skewness in the error distribution. Allowing for departures from normality is shown to considerably weaken the evidence of the delayed overshooting puzzle in Eichenbaum and Evans (1995).     

A Goodness-of-fit Test for Exponentiality Based on the Memoryless Property

In this investigation a test of goodness of fit for exponentiality is proposed. This procedure applies equally whether the scale and/or the location parameters of the distribution are known or not. The limiting null and non-null distributions of the test statistic are normal under minimal conditions. Monte Carlo critical values for small sample sizes are given and the power of the test is calculated for various alternatives showing that it compares favourably relatively to other more complicated published procedures.