Curved Chaotic Map Time Series Models and Their Stochastic Reversals

This paper considers two types of chaotic map time series models, including the well-known tent, logistic and binary-shift maps as special cases; these are called curved tent and curved binary families. Deterministic behaviour is investigated by invariant distributions, Lyapunov exponents, and by serial dependency. Stochastic time reversal of the families is shown to produce models which have a broader range of stochastic and chaotic properties than their deterministic counterparts. The marginal distributions may have concentrations and restricted supports and are shown to be a non-standard class of invariant distribution. Dependenc y is generally weaker with the reversed stochastic models. The work gives a broad statistical account of deterministic and stochastically reversed map models, such as are emerging in random number generation, communica tion systems and cryptography     

Forest Fire Risk Management and Public Participation in Changing Socioenvironmental Conditions: A Case Study in a Mediterranean Region

Under current conditions of accelerated socioenvironmental change in the Mediterranean forested landscapes, fire is one of the most critical and difficult risks to tackle within the region. This article summarizes the lessons learned from a project based on the participatory integration of qualitative local stakeholders' knowledge with expert GIS fire simulations carried out in the County of El Bages, Catalonia, Spain. First, in this article, a theoretical model--the forest fire circle--is presented in order to explain the reasons for the rise in the damage and frequency of forest fires in this Mediterranean area. Second, it describes the methodology developed and the stages followed during the project. Results show that: (1) the advocacy of old forest reactive management paradigm assumptions and practices based on uncontrolled forest succession can put vast wooded areas of the Mediterranean basin at critical risk; and (2) forest fire management approaches that ignore the crucial role of long-term prevention and local capacity building strategies have failed. In the final section, the content and the specific dimensions of the old reactive paradigm that has characterized forest fire risk management in Catalonia are discussed and contrasted with the possibly emerging preventative paradigm.     

Local Governments Connecting to the Global Economy: Globalization as Catalyst in Governance of East African Cities

This article responds to two questions: first, how are large local governments in East Africa responding to the emerging global economy? Second, is globalization a catalyst in enhancing local governance in Nairobi, Kampala, and Dar es Salaam? The paper is an empirical analysis of strategies adopted by local government organizations in search of meeting challenges brought by a globalization. While there are some similarities in the strategies and processes adopted, the implementation pace varies across the three organizations. At the end, an attempt is made to explain these differences.     

云南矿产资源地方立法探析

地方立法是我国立法体系的重要组成部分,矿产资源分布不均衡.使矿产资源地方立法在资源开发与保护、管理与利用中的作用显得更加重要.云南已形成了以云南省矿产资源管理条例为中心,由地方性法规、地方政府规章和民族单行条例构成的矿产资源法规群,但是仍要按可持续的科学发展观加以完善,对矿产资源实施资产化管理和资源化管理,实现地方立法的体系化.     

府际治理视阈下地方政府合作协议的规范化——以成渝双城经济圈为例

区域协调发展战略目标的实现依赖区域所在地方政府的协同合作。地方政府签订合作协议已成为开展府际合作的主要方式。成渝双城经济圈战略提出以来,成渝两地政府合作极具急迫性和必要性。目前,成渝双城经济圈地方政府合作协议运行存在的主要问题是规范性不足、程序不固定、效力规定不明以及行为外溢影响第三人权益等。府际治理理论是推动地方政府合作的理性工具。在府际治理理论的指导下,地方政府合作协议要实现规范化运作,必须解决好协议缔结权的法定性问题,且通过设立中央批准机制、独立管理机构以及第三方参与机制等路径予以推动。     

地方高校科技创新组织静态博弈分析

地方高校是我国重要的科技创新力量,是区域创新体系的核心组成部分.将高校内部从事科技创新的组织分为两类,即科技创新正式组织与非正式组织,通过静态博弈分析深入探讨了在完全信息和非完全信息情况下两者的合作竞争战略.     

论地方高等教育与区域经济协调发展

随着社会经济的快速发展,高等教育与区域经济的关系越来越密切,高等教育不仅是教书育人,而且是推动经济发展的重要力量.地方高等教育与区域经济的发展也不是简单的决定与被决定的关系,而是一种相互促进、共同发展.即区域经济为地方高等教育提供物质保障,地方高等教育为区域经济发展提供智力支持和技术保障.     

从《边城》看沈从文乡土小说的诗画特征

自称是"乡下人"的沈从文,在现代中国文学史上算得上一个风格独特的文人。他执著追求与表现的是那种纯真的带有某种原始意味的人性美和人情美,在山清水秀的湘西边地苦苦地构筑他的理想人生形态,抒发了他对湘西下层劳动人民的深厚感情。沈从文的这类小说被称为"乡土抒情小说",《边城》就是其中最优秀的代表。     

地方文献信息资源收集与利用

对地方文献收集的目的方法以及整理、加工和利用作了阐述,对其收集范围、收集途径、文献利用谈谈看法．分析如何加强地方文献开发利用的力度和深度,使其能更好地为社会服务。     

以行政协同治理推动区域协同发展——成渝地区双城经济圈协同推进机关事务标准化工作范例

随着区域协同发展政策战略地位的不断提高,区域协同研究正如火如荼,但现阶段学界尚有待阐明区域协同瓶颈之因并提出解决之法及相应的区域协同新机制。本研究试图聚焦于此,在理论层面梳理区域协同瓶颈产生机制与区域协同新机制,并对成渝地区双城经济圈协同推进机关事务标准化工作进行案例分析与问卷调查,在实证层面检验本研究的两个理论框架。案例分析发现,以机关事务为例,成渝地区双城经济圈存在治理尺度差异,这与中央政策调控共同构成协同的内外动机,驱动成渝地区深化合作意愿,卷入区域协同;与此同时,地方保护主义现象在两地机关事务标准化协同工作中亦有所披露,并阻碍了成渝地区双城经济圈建设的协同发展。问卷调查数据进一步验证案例分析结果:推进协同地区加强行政治理协同、推进治理尺度统一具有紧要性,成渝地区双城经济圈建设推进标准化执行助推区域协同发展,标准化的行政治理协同增强了成渝地区双城经济圈协同互信意识,在一定程度上消解行政壁垒和地方保护主义;此外,当前成渝地区双城经济圈建设干部协同卷入的奖惩机制不完善,行政治理协同还需大力推进,两地协同仍有较强的地方本位意识。基于此,本研究认为,地方保护现象是长久以来中国实行区域分治所衍生的治理产物,消弭地方保护主义、强化区域一体化思维成为协同瓶颈破局之必然要求,而基于行政尺度视角出发的行政协同治理则可能通过为地区卷入协同建构与区域空间相适配的治理尺度,从而成为区域协同必然的路径选择。并且,协同是基于时间矢量上不断发展变换的过程,地方政府应当通过牢牢把握不同阶段中区域协同"动机—路径—目的"三核心元素以寻求合理的区域协同合作。