论地方综合大学外语教学三维一体管理的模式

根据地方综合性大学的特点,确立外语教师、学生、辅导员三维一体的教学管理模式具有它的可行性。在这个模式中,教师是教学系统稳态的维系力量,学生是外语教学的主体,辅导员对学生外语学习活动起着导向作用。其三者之间是缺一不可的良性互动的辩证关系。     

核准制IPO定价实证分析

本文用信息经济学的理论和计量经济学的实证分析方法研究了我国核准制下的新股定价问题 ,指出市场主体决策时的信息差异是造成新股发行价和上市价相背离的主要原因 ,并构建多元回归模型对这一假设进行了检验。     

Psychological taxing in Flemish municipalities

We analyse whether the psychological pricing in the private sector has a public sector counterpart in tax policy. Analysing the main theoretical arguments for the existence of price points, and applying them to the public sector, suggests that psychological taxing reveals itself by the use of non-0 ending tax rates. The tax rate endings of the local income taxes, which are set by 308 Flemish municipalities in the fiscal year 1998, suggests the presence of psychological taxing. Non-0 endings occur more frequently in municipalities where demand for public policy is more elastic (and where, therefore, the benefits to the politicians from setting a tax just below a tax point is higher). The pre-tax income inequality and the level of the tax rate positively affect psychological taxing. The latter effect is reinforced in those municipalities where the existing tax rate is above the average tax rate in neighbouring municipalities and below their neighbours’ minimum, although this effect has a limited effect and is offset the further below the minimum the tax is set.     

Robust confidence interval for a residual standard deviation

The residual standard deviation of a general linear model provides information about predictive accuracy that is not revealed by the multiple correlation or regression coefficients. The classic confidence interval for a residual standard deviation is hypersensitive to minor violations of the normality assumption and its robustness does not improve with increasing sample size. An approximate confidence interval for the residual standard deviation is proposed and shown to be robust to moderate violations of the normality assumption with robustness to extreme non-normality that improves with increasing sample size.     

Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

论西部地区地方政府在构建和谐社会中的主导作用

西部地区构建和谐社会是一个长期的、逐渐的过程.地方政府作为构建和谐社会的主体,承担着更为繁重的任务,尤其是经济欠发达的西部地区.构建社会主义和谐社会,地方政府必须调动一切积极因素,增强全社会的创造活力;发挥引导、协调和支持的作用,广泛调动社会各方面的积极性,调整好各方面的利益关系,维护和实现社会公平;营造良好的社会氛围,形成和谐相处的人际环境;加强社会建设和管理,切实维护社会稳定.必须深化各项改革,形成一个促进地区经济社会协调发展的体制机制,为构建社会主义和谐社会提供有力的体制保障.     

民族地区县级政府竞争：路径选择与制度安排

我国地方政府竞争的趋势将愈演愈烈,地方政府竞争带来了不同的竞争效应。文章对地方政府竞争模型的反思入手,分析了民族地区政府竞争的特征和存在问题的基础上,提出了民族地区提升政府竞争力的路径选择:以提升制度竞争力为先,推进市场、产品等要素建设;并对民族地区政府竞争提出相应的制度和政策安排。     

FDI对我国经济增长的实证分析

就外商直接投资(FD I)对我国经济增长的影响这一焦点问题,国内学者从定性采用多指标和从定量使用传统的基于普通最小二乘法(O LS)下的计量经济模型两个方面进行了比较详尽的研究。本文在现有文献基础上进行了尝试性创新,使用O LS法进行回归分析时,考虑了数据的平稳性问题,进行了数据的平稳性检验,并运用科克伦-奥克特(C ochrane-O rcutt法)方法纠正了可能存在的虚假回归现象,从而使估计结果更加稳健,结论也更加合理。     

西部诗人高凯的乡土世界

甘肃诗人高凯的乡土诗在中国西部当代诗歌中是独特的,他构筑的乡土世界已逐渐引起评论家的关注并赢得较高的评价。他的乡土诗主要有这样三部分组成:一,风俗画的展现;二,乡情、乡愁的吟唱;三,家园意识的追寻。高凯的乡土世界是厚重的、完整的。诗歌具有哲学和人类学的思想高度。     

Local dependence estimation using semiparametric archimedean copulas

The authors define a new semiparametric Archimedean copula family which has a flexible dependence structure. The generator of the family is a local interpolation of existing generators. It has locally‐defined dependence parameters. The authors present a penalized constrained least‐squares method to estimate and smooth these parameters. They illustrate the flexibility of their dependence model in a bi‐variate survival example.