中国地方政府债务问题探讨

中国地方政府债务问题形成的主要原因,一是政府过多地、直接地参与经济活动,二是城市化加速导致地方政府举债。对于中国地方政府债务问题,总体判断仍为风险可控。一是地方政府加上中央政府的债务占GDP的比例在40%以内,远低于60%的债务率标准。二是中央政府有非常强的控制能力,在各级政府间平衡债权债务,使得中国加总的净债务率较低。三是中国整体的资产负债表仍然健康,尤其是中央政府保持相当健康的资产负债表。对地方政府债务问题,体制性的解决办法是治本之道。要从根本上解决中国地方政府不规范借债问题,须建立规范化的地方政府举债融资机制。     

就近就地城镇化问题研究

农村剩余劳动力的转移模式存在异地转移和就地转移两种。农村人口空心化、"大城市病"以及二元户籍制度下农民工的城市融入难题是我国城镇化进程中面临的突出问题。就近就地城镇化以人文本,以经济发展为前提,以有效就业为基础,以城乡基础设施一体化和公共服务均等化为目标,达到人、产、城三者的融合,实现社会经济的可持续发展。     

政府旅游开发方式评析——以土耳其为例

提起旅游,人们脑海里首先浮现的必然是"阳光与海滩"。土耳其是地中海地区的一个主要国家,在历史、文化、自然风光、美食、民俗等方面都具有巨大潜力,并且土耳其人民也非常热情友善。土耳其拥有21世纪的游客所寻求的异国风情。为使土耳其的这种潜力在继续服务于旅游业的同时保持其延续性,就需要认真的自省与科学的研究和规划。旅游业对于一国的社会福利和经济发展有着举足轻重的影响,但也存在毁灭当地资源的可能。理性运用旅游资产、增加游客数量和提高旅游收入,这些都可以通过有效的旅游规划来实现。在此问题上,中央政府、地方政府和非政府组织在相互协作的框架下各司其职显得至关重要。本文通过揭示当前土耳其旅游业的现状,对中央和地方政府扮演的角色做出评析,希望从国家管理的风格和方式角度出发,使土耳其的旅游规划和政策取得实际效果。     

姚莹《康輶纪行》对《卫藏图识》资料的重视与利用

姚莹《康輶纪行》是一部主要记今西藏及川西高原藏区史地及文化、民俗的著作。康藏之行及撰《康輶纪行》时,姚莹参考了《卫藏图识》等几部清代早期西藏地方志,从《卫藏图识》之《图考》上、下,《识略》上、下及《藏语》等卷中摘引了大量资料。姚莹重视《卫藏图识》的资料有迫切希望较深入地多方面了解西藏的原因。《康輶纪行》对《卫藏图识》资料的利用不仅量大,并具有利用其资料十分全面但又有重点等四个特点。姚莹对《卫藏图识》及资料价值的重视,说明《卫藏图识》修纂有特点,内容也显丰富,已是清代西藏地方志的代表性著作之一。     

基于波动持续性的最优组合构建与分散化研究

构建恰当资产组合来减少风险, 是投资组合理论研究的重要目标.由于金融时间序列的波动往往会伴随着持续性特征, 该种特性会增大组合未来收益的风险.本文通过构建随机波动模型序列持续性最优投资组合模型, 以降低金融资产波动的持续性特征对组合收益波动的影响;并通过研究其分散化水平, 考察该投资组合构建方法的有效性与稳健性.研究发现:与均值方差的组合模型相比较, 序列持续性组合的风险分散化水平更好.此研究在资产组合选择方面, 具有较为重要的理论价值及实践意义.     

一类稀疏投资组合双层参数估计模型及其应用

带基约束的投资组合问题是近年来投资组合领域的热点问题,但是参数不确定性直接影响了模型的效果。带基约束的投资组合问题所涉及的参数不仅包括以往研究认为非常重要的预期收益率,还包括控制投资组合规模的稀疏度,尤其是最优稀疏度估计方面的专门研究还十分匮乏。为了使带基约束的投资组合模型更好地为投资决策服务,本文从投资者效用出发,用双层规划的思想构建了带基约束的投资组合双层参数估计模型。然后根据模型的特点,设计了无导数优化算法框架,并基于ADMM对算法子问题进行求解。本文实验针对真实的市场数据给出了预期收益率和最优稀疏度的估计,接着通过与等权重策略和含上下界约束的均值-方差模型进行比较,说明了模型及算法的有效性和实用性。最后,将本文提出的双层参数估计模型推广到了更一般的形式。     

Sixty years of change in Tibetan fertility: An assessment

Existing knowledge of Tibetan historical population development is mostly based on ‘best-guess’ estimates and is heavily politicized. Using census data, I reconstruct the development of Tibetan fertility in China since the 1940s, with the objective of providing an independent assessment that can be used as benchmark for future studies and debates on Tibetan demography. Following major social and economic transformations starting in the 1950s, Tibetan fertility unexpectedly increased from the late 1950s to the late 1960s. As noted in several existing studies, Tibetan fertility in China then declined swiftly from the early 1980s onwards and has now reached values close to replacement level. Focusing on the 1950–70 period, I examine factors that contributed to shaping the Tibetan fertility increase in more detail. This confirms that changes in nuptiality and disease-related infertility both played a role in pushing up fertility rates among Tibetan women in China.     

建立以本土企业为主体的协同创新机制研究

改革开放以来,我国经济发展取得了巨大成就,但也面临一些重大挑战,特别是本土企业加入、依赖跨国公司主导的产业链,在短期内得以迅速发展的同时,也导致本土产业链出现了断裂和碎片化的问题,这对本土企业的创新和发展是不利的。文章研究在我国建立以本土企业为主体的协同创新机制的基本规律和特点,为提高本土企业的创新能力提供借鉴。研究的主要发现是,这是一个复杂和曲折的过程,在这一过程的启动阶段和转折阶段,非经济因素或者至少是长期经济因素而不是短期经济因素具有独特的、非常重要的作用。     

Planners’ Perceptions of Why Canadian Communities Have Too Many Plans

A survey of Canadian planners explored perceptions about factors contributing to the growing number of plans communities have adopted recently. The results suggest that practitioners see themselves as responding to current community concerns, as well as to requirements imposed by higher levels of government. Neoliberal practices that force compliance with accountability frameworks to enable transfer payments increase demands for new plans. Professional practices within planning have encouraged specialization—in fields such as urban design—that often leads to plan-making activities. With many plans to coordinate, and limited staff resources and time available, practitioners face increasing implementation challenges.     

Expatriate contact with a local host: an intervention to increase social support

Social capital is a crucial factor for expatriates to employ as they cope with the demands of an international assignment. This longitudinal study used a mixed method approach to examine the social support benefits of expatriate contact with a local host. Western expatriates in the Netherlands were randomly divided into two groups: an experimental group (n = 33), that had contact with a Dutch host during 9 months, and a control group (n = 32) with no host. Qualitative methods such as interviews and diaries were included to shed light on the various types of social support that occurred. Results show that local hosts offered all four types of social support: social companionship, informational support, emotional support, and instrumental support. Furthermore, expatriates with a host increased their social capital; they received significantly more social support from host nationals than did those without a host. This study shows that HRD professionals may develop the social capital of expatriates by bringing them into contact with a local host, which can produce more social support from host nationals. Increased social capital may lead to a higher performance at both the individual and organisational levels.