波动率偏斜与风险中性偏度能预测尾部风险吗

论文从S＆P 500指数期权数据中提取出波动率偏斜与风险中性偏度指标, 采用Logistic模型研究了波动率偏斜/风险中性偏度是否对未来真实的市场尾部风险具有预测力。结果发现, 波动率偏斜/风险中性偏度仅含有未来市场尾部风险的一定信息, 但并不能准确预测未来市场尾部风险发生的状态。相反, 波动率偏斜/风险中性偏度与投资者情绪指标显著相关。     

从统计数据看政府人才计划的实施效益 ——上海市启明星计划20周年的回顾与分析

对上海市政府实施的 “青年科技启明星计划” 20年来的科技成果进行统计梳理,发现政府人才计划的效益具有长期性,而且加速了青年科技人才的成长,提高了青年学者的科研产出率。在肯定人才计划取得了丰硕成果的同时,对其存在的问题和不足进行了总结分析,提出了相应的建议,以便更合理地配置有限的科技资源,为上海市的发展提供人才支撑。     

Employers' attitudes towards long‐term unemployed people and the role of activation in Switzerland

Over the last few years, most OECD countries have extended their activation policy to new groups of non‐working people, including the long‐term unemployed (LTU). However, it is widely known that employers tend to regard LTU people as potentially problematic persons. This is likely to constitute a major obstacle for long‐term unemployed jobseekers. On the basis of a survey among employers in a Swiss canton (N = 722), this article aims to shed light on the perception employers have of the long‐term unemployed and whether this may matter for their recruitment practices. It also asks what, from the employer point of view, may facilitate access to employment for an LTU person. A key finding is that large companies have a worse image of the long‐term unemployed and are less likely to hire them. Furthermore, independent of company size, a test period or the recommendation of a trustworthy person is seen as the factors most likely to facilitate access to jobs for LTU people.     

Non‐parametric Estimation of Extreme Risk Measures from Conditional Heavy‐tailed Distributions

In this paper, we introduce a new risk measure, the so‐called conditional tail moment. It is defined as the moment of order a ≥ 0 of the loss distribution above the upper α‐quantile where α ∈ (0,1). Estimating the conditional tail moment permits us to estimate all risk measures based on conditional moments such as conditional tail expectation, conditional value at risk or conditional tail variance. Here, we focus on the estimation of these risk measures in case of extreme losses (where α ↓0 is no longer fixed). It is moreover assumed that the loss distribution is heavy tailed and depends on a covariate. The estimation method thus combines non‐parametric kernel methods with extreme‐value statistics. The asymptotic distribution of the estimators is established, and their finite‐sample behaviour is illustrated both on simulated data and on a real data set of daily rainfalls.     

金融发展差异与货币政策区域效应——以华东六省一市为例

选取华东六省一市作为研究对象,运用因子分析方法研究2012年该7个省市金融发展情况及其差异,并对其金融发展相似性进行聚类分析。在此基础上,采用1990—2012年数据,对聚类后的三类地区通过基于VAR模型的协整关系检验、Granger因果关系检验等建立变量间长期均衡模型,实证研究货币政策在华东地区不同省市效应的差异性。研究结果表明:三类地区经济增长和货币政策对于区域金融发展均具有明显的区域效应,经济发展和广义货币供应量与金融发展均呈正相关关系。鉴此,提出如下政策建议:正视区域经济发展差异,实施差别化货币调控政策;优化各区域金融结构差异,改善货币政策传导效应等。     

Ranked set sampling with unequal samples for skew distributions

A ranked set sampling procedure with unequal samples for positively skew distributions (RSSUS) is proposed and used to estimate the population mean. The estimators based on RSSUS are compared with the estimators based on ranked set sampling (RSS) and median ranked set sampling (MRSS) procedures. It is observed that the relative precisions of the estimators based on RSSUS are higher than those of the estimators based on RSS and MRSS procedures.     

《玲珑》女性话语狂欢中的男性形象建构

《玲珑》杂志在塑造完美摩登女性形象之外同时建构了一个负面的男性形象,并对之大加声讨。在压迫/反抗的女性话语逻辑支配下,男性被建构为施虐者,女性在话语狂欢中完成对男性的反抗和讨伐。然而,话语狂欢终究不能解决现实困境,女性批判男性,寻求自主的同时,却又不由自主地陷入了商业资本的陷阱。《玲珑》杂志中的负面男性形象建构以及女性对男性的话语暴力揭橥了20世纪30年代都市女性面对男性时的复杂心态,映射出她们在消费浪潮、大众传媒与外来文化的轮番刺激下的欲望和挣扎。     

西藏跨越式发展和长治久安的路径探析

坚持走有中国特色、西藏特点的发展路子,推进西藏跨越式发展和长治久安的主要路径有:以经济建设为中心,在科学发展轨道上推进跨越式发展;以做好民族宗教工作和反分裂工作为重点,维护安定团结的政治局面;以满足群众精神文化需求为目的,推动西藏文化大发展大繁荣;以保障和改善民生为出发点和落脚点,加快发展社会事业;以生态建设与环境保护为载体,构建高原生态安全屏障;以提高党的建设科学化水平为目标,为建设社会主义新西藏提供坚强组织保证。     

基于英汉逻辑差异的学术语篇长句汉译策略研究

翻译西方学术文献的主要目的在于促进国内外学术交流和信息传播。然而,由于英汉两种语言的逻辑差异,学术语篇中的长句,一直是翻译中的难点。以学术语篇中由于逻辑差异而导致翻译误差的长句为例,对学术语篇中长句汉译从翻译策略角度进行尝试性的探讨,归纳总结出学术语篇中长句的英汉逻辑差异类型,并对每种类型的长句提出具体的翻译办法,以期促进翻译的实践与教学。