LTD and RTI dependence orderings

The authors show how the approach of Capéra à & Genest (The Canadian Journal of Statistics, 1990) can be used to order bivariate distributions with arbitrary marginals by their degree of dependence in the LTD (left‐tail decreasing) or RTI (right‐tail increasing) sense. Some properties of these new orderings are given, along with applications to Archimedean copulas, order statistics and compound random variables.     

隔振支座对大跨度网壳的振动控制分析

本文通过建立了橡胶隔振支座与设置隔振支座的网壳结构的力学模型,研究了隔震支座控制下,大跨度空间单层柱面网壳结构在地震作用下振动响应,结果表明:隔震支座对结构的振动可以起到良好的控制作用,但地震强度对隔震支座耗能能力影响较大,在最大水平行程内,地震强度越大,耗能能力越强;在不同地震波作用下,隔振网壳结构体系的振动控制效果有所不同,其中:EL Centro波作用的结构被动控制效果最佳。     

Hill's estimator under weak dependence

In this article, we investigate the asymptotic normality of the Hill's estimator of the tail index parameter, when the observations are weakly dependent in the sense of Doukhan and Louhichi (1999 Doukhan, P., Louhichi, S. (1999). A new weak dependence condition and applications to moment inequalities. Stochastic Process. Appl. 84:313–342.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and are drawn from a strictly linear process. We show that the previous result on Hill estimator obtained by Rootzen et al. (1990 Rootzen, H., Leadbetter, M., De Haan, L. (1990). Tail and quantile estimation for strongly mixing stationary sequences. Technical report. No. 292, Center for Stochastic Processes, Department of Statistics, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. [Google Scholar]) and Resnick and Starica (1997 Resnick, S., Starica, C. (1997). Asymptotic behavior of Hill's estimator for autoregressive data. Commun. Statistics-stochastic Models 13:703–723.[Taylor &; Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]) for strong mixing can be extended to weak dependence.     

Strength‐Based Narrative Résumé Counseling: Constructing Positive Career Identities From Difficult Employment Histories

The résumé is a fixture within employment counseling, often viewed as a necessary product for securing employment. Résumés can also be a powerful vehicle for facilitating the development of positive career identities. The complex interplay of negative societal narratives with personal narratives can make the development of a positive identity, and the execution of an employment search, difficult for clients who have work histories complicated by personal and economic challenges (e.g., homelessness, intimate partner violence, histories of incarceration). The authors present résumé counseling as an opportunity for clients to develop stories of strength, reveal stories of difficulty, solidify a positive career identity, and rewrite positive future narratives. This article describes the strength‐based narrative approach to résumé and employment counseling, illustrates its application with a hypothetical case, and offers practice recommendations.     

Wavelet semi-parametric inference for long memory in volatility in the presence of a trend

Risk of investing in a financial asset is quantified by functionals of squared returns. Discrete time stochastic volatility (SV) models impose a convenient and practically relevant time series dependence structure on the log-squared returns. Different long-term risk characteristics are postulated by short-memory SV and long-memory SV models. It is therefore important to test which of these two alternatives is suitable for a specific asset. Most standard tests are confounded by deterministic trends. This paper introduces a new, wavelet-based, test of the null hypothesis of short versus long memory in volatility which is robust to deterministic trends. In finite samples, the test performs better than currently available tests which are based on the Fourier transform.     

Precise large deviations of aggregate claims in a compound size-dependent renewal risk model

In this paper, we introduce a compound size-dependent renewal risk model driven by two sequences of random sources. The individual claim sizes and their inter-arrival times form a sequence of independent and identically distributed random pairs with each pair obeying a specific dependence structure. The numbers of claims caused by individual events form another sequence of independent and identically distributed positive integer-valued random variables, independent of the random pairs above. Precise large deviations of aggregate claims for the compound size-dependent renewal risk model are investigated in the case of dominatedly varying claim sizes.     

Long Cheap Talk

With cheap talk, more can be achieved by long conversations than by a single message—even when one side is strictly better informed than the other. (“Cheap talk” means plain conversation—unmediated, nonbinding, and payoff‐irrelevant.) This work characterizes the equilibrium payoffs for all two‐person games in which one side is better informed than the other and cheap talk is permitted.     

Lower Risk Bounds and Properties of Confidence Sets for Ill‐Posed Estimation Problems with Applications to Spectral Density and Persistence Estimation,Unit Roots,and Estimation of Long Memory Parameters

Important estimation problems in econometrics like estimating the value of a spectral density at frequency zero, which appears in the econometrics literature in the guises of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent variance estimation and long run variance estimation, are shown to be “ill‐posed” estimation problems. A prototypical result obtained in the paper is that the minimax risk for estimating the value of the spectral density at frequency zero is infinite regardless of sample size, and that confidence sets are close to being uninformative. In this result the maximum risk is over commonly used specifications for the set of feasible data generating processes. The consequences for inference on unit roots and cointegration are discussed. Similar results for persistence estimation and estimation of the long memory parameter are given. All these results are obtained as special cases of a more general theory developed for abstract estimation problems, which readily also allows for the treatment of other ill‐posed estimation problems such as, e.g., nonparametric regression or density estimation.     

基于SKT-ARFIMA-HYGARCH模型的开放式基金投资风格漂移收益及其波动分形研究

以往大量文献研究表明基金经常发生风格漂移现象,但资本市场呈分形特征违背了有效市场假说,对传统的实证研究方法提出了巨大挑战。以2005年上半年成立的5只开放式基金为研究样本,利用3个信息准则确定ARFIMA（1,d1,1）-HYGARCH（1,d2,0）为最优模型,引入SKT分布结合该模型来探索研究基金投资风格漂移所带来的收益及波动过程的分形特征。实证结果表明：该模型能够较好刻画投资风格漂移日收益序列的双长记忆性分形特征,其波动过程均存在显著的长记忆性,但收益过程存在长、短记忆性不统一现象,这进一步说明基金投资风格经常发生无序漂移现象,也折射出其背后存在着巨大的漂移风险隐患。最后,Person吻合度检验证实了SKT分布能较好地拟合基金投资风格漂移日收益序列的分布。     

Posterior sampling in two classes of multivariate fractionally integrated models: corrigendum to Ravishanker,N. and B. K. Ray (1997) Australian Journal of Statistics 39 (3), 295–311

We discuss posterior sampling for two distinct multivariate generalisations of the univariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with fractional integration. The existing approach to Bayesian estimation, introduced by Ravishanker & Ray, claims to provide a posterior‐sampling algorithm for fractionally integrated vector autoregressive moving averages (FIVARMAs). We show that this algorithm produces posterior draws for vector autoregressive fractionally integrated moving averages (VARFIMAs), a model of independent interest that has not previously received attention in the Bayesian literature.