论中国古代专卖制度和商品经济的关系--从"长时段"理论进行考察

专卖制度是我国古代长期实行的一项重要经济制度 ,其产生、演变、衰亡与商品经济的发展有着重要关系。专卖制度本身是一个动态的过程 ,评价其是否阻碍或促进了商品经济的发展 ,应从具体的历史环境进行具体的分析。只有将其放在“长时段”里进行考察 ,才能明晰其在整个历史上的作用     

学习型社会图书馆员的终身学习

终身学习是一个跨越时空的永恒主题。图书馆一向被誉为“人类的终身学校”,图书馆员更应该在各方面有计划、有意识地调整和充实自己,采用多种途径和方法进行终身学习。     

早稻长秧龄旱育高产栽培技术研究

本文研究了旱育方式试验，处理间增产幅度，长秧龄旱育高产栽培具有特性。1、秧苗早发，2、生育进程表现为缓，快，缓，3、宽行窄株，适当密植，4、早发早控争粒多。主要栽培技术：1、稀播长秧旱育方法，2、大田移栽管理技术。本项研究不仅具有低耗栽培的优势，而且在栽培上具有重要意义     

图书馆将成为人们终身教育的学校—知识经济时代图书馆教育试析

图书馆的社会职能最重要的体现是图书馆的教育职能.在社会已进入知识经济时代的今天,图书馆教育作为一种新兴的教育种类,将以自身的特点、优势、潜在的生命力和发展力,成为教育事业最重要的组成部分,成为人们接受终身教育的学校.     

诗体三题

唐代的诗歌体裁种类繁多,旧有的认识还很有限,有些存在错误。本文对此考察了的三个方面的问题:一是"长句",即唐人主要用于称呼七言律诗的术语;二是七言排律在唐代的创作情况,得出并非"很少见",而是很常见而且很有特点的结论;三是对中唐的杂言诗多方面考索,得出张志和《渔歌子》不是一首词,而是一首杂言诗的结论。     

Estimation of the maximal moment exponent with censored data

Heavy-tailed distributions have been used to model phenomena in which extreme events occur with high probability. In these type of occurrences, it is likely that extreme events are not observable after a certain threshold. Appropriate estimators are needed to deal with this type of censored data. We show that the well-known Hill-Hall estimator is unable to deal with censored data and yields highly biased estimates. We propose and study an unbiased modified maximum likelihood estimator, as well as a truncated tail regression estimator. We assess the expected value and the variance of these estimators in the cases of stable- and Pareto-distributed data.     

复杂条件下隧道长距离无轨运输施工通风技术

施工通风是特长隧道施工组织设计中的一项重要任务，对特长隧道能否顺利建成具有关键性作用，以戴云山特长的施工通风为例，从施工方案的调整上、施工环境、风量计算、风机的选型、风量与风压的控制等系统的阐述隧道复杂条件下多工作面施工通风技术。     

Interval estimation via tail functions

The authors describe a new method for constructing confidence intervals. Their idea consists in specifying the cutoff points in terms of a function of the target parameter rather than as constants. When it is suitably chosen, this so‐called tail function yields shorter confidence intervals in the presence of prior information. It can also be used to improve the coverage properties of approximate confidence intervals. The authors illustrate their technique by application to interval estimation of the mean of Bernoulli and normal populations. They further suggest guidelines for choosing the optimal tail function and discuss the relationship with Bayesian inference.     

A NEW CALIBRATION METHOD OF CONSTRUCTING EMPIRICAL LIKELIHOOD-BASED CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR THE TAIL INDEX

Empirical likelihood has attracted much attention in the literature as a nonparametric method. A recent paper by Lu & Peng (2002) [Likelihood based confidence intervals for the tail index. Extremes 5, 337–352] applied this method to construct a confidence interval for the tail index of a heavy‐tailed distribution. It turns out that the empirical likelihood method, as well as other likelihood‐based methods, performs better than the normal approximation method in terms of coverage probability. However, when the sample size is small, the confidence interval computed using the χ² approximation has a serious undercoverage problem. Motivated by Tsao (2004) [A new method of calibration for the empirical loglikelihood ratio. Statist. Probab. Lett. 68, 305–314], this paper proposes a new method of calibration, which corrects the undercoverage problem.     

多元长记忆SV模型及其在沪深股市的应用

对多元长记忆随机波动进行建模,并给出了相应的谱似然估计方法以及在多元随机波动模 型框架下分数维协整的检验步骤. 最后用上海和深圳的数据对所给的模型与方法进行了实证检验.