国际权力与秩序变革

权力是行为者将其意志强加于其他行为者之上的能力.在任何政治秩序中,权力都是不可或缺的组成部分.世界秩序的变更,是由于该国际体系的现存统治方式与权力的重新分配之间发生了断裂.冷战后国际体系的权力结构发生了重大变革,这就必然导致世界秩序的变革.而世界秩序的和平变革,必须在权力和道德两者之间寻求艰难的妥协.     

良知与全球秩序的构建

人类在“现代性”催动下的互动日益频繁,相互依赖更加深入,松散没有统一秩序但又紧密不可分割的人类共同体正在形成之中,人类共同体的伦理与法律秩序也在慢慢衍生。伦理秩序建设中的首要问题是共同的基础性的道德价值认知的协调与确认;从对康德和罗尔斯的批判考察看,法律秩序的基础也要回溯到文化观念的协调与认同上来。这样,一个普遍性的超越区域与个别宗教但又能起到沟通联结作用的基础性的道德概念急需建立,儒家的“良知”概念可以发挥这一方面的作用。     

罗兴亚问题对缅-孟关系和地区秩序的影响

罗兴亚问题是一个多世纪前英殖民者在亚洲埋下的诸多“民族问题”之一,也是孟加拉国与缅甸之间难解的“痼疾”。2017年8月以来,罗兴亚问题的再次爆发给相关国家造成巨大冲击。缅甸在打击罗兴亚暴力活动的同时,反对国际干涉,试图牢牢把握该问题解决进程中的主导权,而孟加拉国在政治、安全、经济和社会等不同层面基于自己的利益考量,寻求将罗兴亚人遣返缅甸,立场的对立使两国关系陷入僵局。而美国和印度介入罗兴亚问题则使地区秩序进一步复杂化,并在舆论和安全等领域影响中国的利益。2020年1月17日至18日,中国国家主席习近平应邀对缅甸进行国事访问,标志着中缅经济走廊从概念规划转入实质建设阶段,也给“罗兴亚问题”的解决带来新契机。     

福建经济若干统计特征及发展趋势

选取福建省．1983年以来经济部分指标进行了统计分析。描述了一些指标的变化规律,划分了经济发展的阶段,采用新方法预测了2006年和2007年的经济指标,进而得出若干启示和分析结论。     

网络表达追责的法治理性研究

网络表达追责存在法条适用形式化、刑事政策偏重倾向：一是“社会秩序”“社会危害”认定的模糊性,表现为“社会危害性”解释的主观性,缺失“危害社会秩序”是否适合诽谤罪、“社会危害性”认定是否宜于采取优势证据标准的考量;二是以“寻衅滋事”追责须强化法条的实质性解释,强调援引“寻衅滋事”适用对象的明确性及法益取舍的恰当性;三是应当严格诽谤入罪条件,即以民事责任优先政策弱化检举不实言论的诽谤罪适用。     

数字化时代网络信息传播秩序重构的内在逻辑与行动策略

数字技术使信息传播渠道从单一向“网络立体化”转变,信息传播主体从“中心化”向“分散化”转变,信息传播环境从“真实化”向“拟态化”转变,信息传播出现了“混沌”与“失序”现象。“坚持人本理念”是网络信息传播秩序重构的基本逻辑,“信息资源与要素的再整合”是网络信息传播秩序重构的基础条件,“智能化信息平台决策机制”是网络信息传播秩序重构的保障。在信息传播秩序重构的过程中,需要强化技术体系与网络体系的链接,搭建多层次信息流动与传播的网络空间;需要加强对社会生活空间与产业的数字化改造,促使现实世界向虚拟世界迁移;需要催生全新的元宇宙信息场域,构建与现实世界映射与交互的虚拟世界。     

不完全信息下的寻租博弈分析

从寻租过程中客观存在的信息的不完全和寻租人不同的风险态度出发,通过建立不完全信息下的寻租竞争博弈模型分析,得出当寻租方存在信息不对称、寻租人数无限增加时,寻租人会退出寻租竞争,导致寻租市场消失的结论.     

Testing the dilation order by using cumulative residual Tsallis entropy

In this paper, we introduce a new test for the dilation order based on cumulative residual Tsallis entropy of order α. The effect of the values of parameter α on the power of the test statistics is numerically investigated. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is given. The performance of the test statistic is evaluated using a simulation study. Finally, some numerical examples illustrating the theory are also given.     

Accurate computation of single and product moments of order statistics under progressive censoring

An accurate procedure is proposed to calculate approximate moments of progressive order statistics in the context of statistical inference for lifetime models. The study analyses the performance of power series expansion to approximate the moments for location and scale distributions with high precision and smaller deviations with respect to the exact values. A comparative analysis between exact and approximate methods is shown using some tables and figures. The different approximations are applied in two situations. First, we consider the problem of computing the large sample variance–covariance matrix of maximum likelihood estimators. We also use the approximations to obtain progressively censored sampling plans for log-normal distributed data. These problems illustrate that the presented procedure is highly useful to compute the moments with precision for numerous censoring patterns and, in many cases, is the only valid method because the exact calculation may not be applicable.     

A misspecification test for the higher order co-moments of the factor model

The traditional estimation of higher order co-moments of non-normal random variables by the sample analog of the expectation faces a curse of dimensionality, as the number of parameters increases steeply when the dimension increases. Imposing a factor structure on the process solves this problem; however, it leads to the challenging task of selecting an appropriate factor model. This paper contributes by proposing a test that exploits the following feature: when the factor model is correctly specified, the higher order co-moments of the unexplained return variation are sparse. It recommends a general to specific approach for selecting the factor model by choosing the most parsimonious specification for which the sparsity assumption is satisfied. This approach uses a Wald or Gumbel test statistic for testing the joint statistical significance of the co-moments that are zero when the factor model is correctly specified. The asymptotic distribution of the test is derived. An extensive simulation study confirms the good finite sample properties of the approach. This paper illustrates the practical usefulness of factor selection on daily returns of random subsets of S&P 100 constituents.