A VARYING-COEFFICIENT APPROACH TO ESTIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATION OF HOUSEHOLD SIZE

Household formation analysis is both a multidimensional economical and statistical problem of great complexity. Since most of the literature tries to incorporate multiple economic aspects, there is, considering the extraordinary practical relevance of the problem, a remarkable gap between theory and application in this field. This paper tries to diminish this gap by a comprehensive treatise on the statistical site of the problem. Thus, we develop a model of household composition, where the evolution of the household membership rates is captured by a logit link-function and a multinomial distribution, which automatically fulfills the non-negativity and adding-up restrictions of the underlying probabilities. We use a varying-coefficients procedure by polynomially smoothing the household membership rates over age for every household size class and assuming a linear predictor in other variables. As an application we estimated and extrapolated the distribution of household sizes of an autonomous region using population register data. Our sample consisted of approximately 450,000 people living in about 170,000 households, grouped into nine different household size classes and classified into age classes from 0 to 90. The data covers a time span of 12 years, from 1986 to 1997. Empirical results show the robustness of the procedure even in case of low cell frequencies. Thus, there is no need for regional or age-group aggregations.     

Generalized Weibull Linear Models

For the first time, a new class of generalized Weibull linear models is introduced to be competitive to the well-known generalized (gamma and inverse Gaussian) linear models which are adequate for the analysis of positive continuous data. The proposed models have a constant coefficient of variation for all observations similar to the gamma models and may be suitable for a wide range of practical applications in various fields such as biology, medicine, engineering, and economics, among others. We derive a joint iterative algorithm for estimating the mean and dispersion parameters. We obtain closed form expressions in matrix notation for the second-order biases of the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters and define bias corrected estimates. The corrected estimates are easily obtained as vectors of regression coefficients in suitable weighted linear regressions. The practical use of the new class of models is illustrated in one application to a lung cancer data set.     

Estimation on Varying-Coefficient Partially Linear Model With Different Smoothing Variables

The authors give the estimation on the varying-coefficient partially linear regression model with different smoothing variables. The efficient estimators of the intercept function and the coefficient functions are obtained by a one-step back-fitting technique based on their initial estimators given by local linear technique and the averaged method. Furthermore, their asymptotic normalities are given. Some simulation studies are used to illustrate the performances of the estimation.     

Uniform asymptotics for ruin probability of a two-dimensional dependent renewal risk model

ABSTRACT

In this paper we consider the tail behavior of a two-dimensional dependent renewal risk model with two dependent classes of insurance business, in which the claim sizes are governed by a common renewal counting process, and their inter-arrival times are dependent, identically distributed. For the case that the claim size distribution belongs to the intersection of long-tailed distribution class and dominant variation class, we obtain an asymptotic formula, which holds uniformly for all time in an infinite interval. Moreover, we point out that the formula still holds uniformly for all time in an infinite interval for widely dependent random variables (r.v.s) under some conditions.     

Schur optimality of one-way designs

In comparison of treatments using homogeneous experimental units, it is shown that a design is Schur optimal when treatment replications are as equal as possible.     

Overdispersed negative binomial regression models

Overdispersion is a common phenomenon in actual data sets. It is important to have methods of dealing with extra variation in regression situations. This article develops tests for extra-negative binomial variation and gives some numerical methods to deal with it. Simulations show power comparisons between some of the overdispersion tests discussed. Finally, an example is given to demonstrate the methods.     

住宅特征价格分析——以广州为例

以广州二手交易的596个高层楼盘、3703个交易样本为研究基础，采用特征价格法测度了影响广州市住宅价格的主要因素，它们分别是与商业中心的距离、与山江公园的距离、与地铁的距离、噪音、户型间隔、装修档次、朝向、楼层、楼龄、阳台数量10项因素，并给出了影响因素的隐含价值。     

The Micro-Formation Mechanism of Trade Conflicts between Large Developing Countries: India’s Anti-dumping Action against China

Abstract

Employing Grossman and Helpman’s “protection for sale” model, this article uses data on anti-dumping actions from 1999 to 2009 to perform a quantitative analysis of factors influencing India’s determinations of anti-dumping duties against China, and reveals the micro-formation mechanism of economic conflicts between China and India. We find that the political power of India’s anti-dumping plaintiffs markedly increases the tariff level of its final determinations and that the relationship between the import penetration ratio and duty rates depends upon whether the plaintiffs are politically organized. Further, there is a significant positive correlation between India’s anti-dumping duty rates and its unfavorable trade balance with China. This indicates that in determining anti-dumping duties, Indian authorities are clearly influenced by the political clout of their domestic interest groups. They are also motivated by the desire to keep down China and gain the upper hand in the face-off between the “dragon and the elephant.”     

刑事审判程序拒绝预断的两条路径

各国刑事审判程序对预断的“拒绝”，可分为事前防止和事后排除两种途径。正因如此，认为“大陆法系职权主义刑事诉讼没有预断排除规则”的观点值得商榷。显而易见的是，对事前防止与事后排除的不同侧重，正是两种审判模式对待预断的区别之处。预断的作用机制，在心理学上可用“首因效应”来解释，从预断的发生、防止和排除三个方面入手进行分析十分必要，由此得以阐明两种审判模式拒绝预断的不同进路。并且从法制国家的程序设置来看，拒绝预断只是保障公正审判的诸多手段之一。     

国家资源安全体系下资源再生产业贡献因子研究

借鉴发达国家资源再生产业的实践经验，提出基于国家矿产资源安全的资源再生产业发展模式研究的基本内容与方法，建立资源再生产业对国家资源安全体系的贡献因子理论模型，确定了由产业发展的关键性要素到制订资源再生产业市场化发展战略的研究框架。