Demande et emploi dans les chaînes d'approvisionnement mondiales

L'essor des chaînes d'approvisionnement mondiales (CAM) éloigne l'emploi de la demande, géographiquement et sectoriellement. Pour mieux comprendre le phénomène, les auteurs mesurent l'emploi lié aux CAM selon sa localisation et celle de la demande, en se fondant sur les données de la base WIOD et en complétant les estimations déjà présentées par le BIT. L'analyse porte sur la période 1995–2013 et sur 40 économies. Elle montre que la Chine, principale bénéficiaire de la demande liée aux CAM autrefois, contribue maintenant à l'alimenter, tout comme les relations de production entre économies émergentes. En outre, le poids des services liés à une demande manufacturière augmente.     

Vagal modulation of 1‐month‐old infants to auditory stimuli is associated with self‐regulatory behavior

During infancy, cardiac vagal modulation has been associated with attentional and social engagement behaviors. While studies have shown that infants display a behavioral repertoire that enables them to interact with others by being able to regulate themselves in order to attend to and to discriminate emotional and social cues, vagal modulation to sensory stimuli and its association with behavioral outcomes at early ages remains to be addressed. In this study, we analyzed the cardiac vagal response of 1‐month‐old infants to two auditory stimuli intensities and whether vagal response was associated with social interactive and self‐regulatory abilities. Therefore, we recorded cardiac and respiratory physiological responses in 28 infants using a Biopac System. Neurobehavioral assessment was performed using the Neonatal Behavioral Assessment Scale. We observed increased respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) amplitude to both auditory stimuli intensities when compared to baseline. No intensity effect was found for the RSA response. Additionally, we observed that higher RSA amplitude to both auditory stimuli was positively correlated with adjusted self‐regulatory behaviors, suggesting a convergence between multiple measures assessing infants' state regulation. Results are discussed in light of 1‐month‐old infants' auditory stimuli processing and its implications for regulatory behaviors and the emergent social‐like behaviors.     

Receipt of Formal and Informal Help with Specific Care Tasks among Older People Living in their Own Home. National Trends over Two Decades

Sweden is seen as a typical example of a social democratic welfare regime, with universal and generous welfare policies. However, in the last decades, there have been substantial reductions in the Swedish provision of care for older people. This study aimed to examine trends in sources of care‐receipt in older people (77+) living in their own home and with a perceived need for help with two specific tasks: house cleaning and/or food shopping. Trends in care‐receipt were examined in relation to gender, living alone, having children and socio‐economic position. Data from the 1992, 2002 and 2011 data collection waves of the national study, Swedish Panel Study of Living Conditions of the Oldest Old (SWEOLD), were used. Response rates varied between 86 and 95 per cent, and the sample represents the population well. Trends and differences between groups were explored in bivariate and logistic regression analyses. There was a reduction in formal care‐receipt regarding house cleaning and food shopping over the study period. It was more common for women than men to receive formal care, and more common for men than women to receive informal care. Reductions in formal care have affected older women more than older men. Still, living alone was the most influential factor in care‐receipt, associated with a greater likelihood of formal care‐receipt and a lower likelihood of informal care‐receipt. It can be concluded that public responsibility for care is becoming more narrowly defined in Sweden, and that more responsibility for care is placed on persons in need of care and their families.     

Exact distributions of two non-central generalized Wilks's statistics

We derive the exact expressions of the probability density function (pdf) and the cumulative distribution function (cdf) of Wilks's likelihood ratio criterion Λ and Wilks-Lawley's statistic U in the non-central linear and the non-central planar cases. Those expressions are given in rapidly converging infinite series and can be used for numerical computation. For applications, we compute the exact power of these statistics in a multivariate analysis of variance exercise, and show by simulation the precision of our analytic formulae.     

Empirical Likelihood Inference for the Rao‐Hartley‐Cochran Sampling Design

The Hartley‐Rao‐Cochran sampling design is an unequal probability sampling design which can be used to select samples from finite populations. We propose to adjust the empirical likelihood approach for the Hartley‐Rao‐Cochran sampling design. The approach proposed intrinsically incorporates sampling weights, auxiliary information and allows for large sampling fractions. It can be used to construct confidence intervals. In a simulation study, we show that the coverage may be better for the empirical likelihood confidence interval than for standard confidence intervals based on variance estimates. The approach proposed is simple to implement and less computer intensive than bootstrap. The confidence interval proposed does not rely on re‐sampling, linearization, variance estimation, design‐effects or joint inclusion probabilities.     

Trying to stay ahead of the curve in Chile's economic development: exploring a way out of the middle‐income trap through pragmatic export development

Underneath impressive growth levels, the Chilean economy displays signs of being caught in a middle‐income trap. It has been unable to improve its productivity, increase the added value of its exports or upgrade its value chain. Its economy cannot compete either with low‐wage countries or highly productive, innovative countries. Its export strategy based on export promotion seems to have outlived its usefulness. It achieved remarkable quantitative success, but must now attend qualitative attributes. Instead of regarding market‐driven export promotion and state‐led export development as substitutes, this article proposes to view them as alternatives in different stages of development. To choose the appropriate time, more attention should be given to non‐traditional, structural indicators, like export sophistication and political‐institutional capabilities.     

Myths and realities about input subsidies in sub‐Saharan Africa

Using a recent public expenditure dataset, this article proposes a ‘reality check’ of the level and composition of input subsidies in nine African countries between 2006 and 2013. Results show that input subsidies (1) received close to 35% of agricultural‐specific expenditure on average and (2) cover a variety of interventions, including investments in capital, such as on‐farm irrigation, and in on‐farm services, such as inspection or training. Further, the figures show that input subsidies tended to become entrenched in agricultural budgets over time, leading to sub‐optimal execution rates, and were primarily funded by the national taxpayer, while donors invested more in public goods. Findings confirm that input subsidies crowded out other spending categories likely to be more supportive of long‐term agricultural development objectives. The article concludes that the political economy of input subsidies should be directed to making more concrete efforts to attain a better balance of public expenditure on agriculture. Furthermore, policy‐makers should aim to increase the efficiency and policy coherence of input subsidies, since merely abolishing them is likely to be unfeasible in the short term.     

A Tiered Framework for Risk‐Relevant Characterization and Ranking of Chemical Exposures: Applications to the National Children's Study (NCS)

A challenge for large‐scale environmental health investigations such as the National Children's Study (NCS), is characterizing exposures to multiple, co‐occurring chemical agents with varying spatiotemporal concentrations and consequences modulated by biochemical, physiological, behavioral, socioeconomic, and environmental factors. Such investigations can benefit from systematic retrieval, analysis, and integration of diverse extant information on both contaminant patterns and exposure‐relevant factors. This requires development, evaluation, and deployment of informatics methods that support flexible access and analysis of multiattribute data across multiple spatiotemporal scales. A new “Tiered Exposure Ranking” (TiER) framework, developed to support various aspects of risk‐relevant exposure characterization, is described here, with examples demonstrating its application to the NCS. TiER utilizes advances in informatics computational methods, extant database content and availability, and integrative environmental/exposure/biological modeling to support both “discovery‐driven” and “hypothesis‐driven” analyses. “Tier 1” applications focus on “exposomic” pattern recognition for extracting information from multidimensional data sets, whereas second and higher tier applications utilize mechanistic models to develop risk‐relevant exposure metrics for populations and individuals. In this article, “tier 1” applications of TiER explore identification of potentially causative associations among risk factors, for prioritizing further studies, by considering publicly available demographic/socioeconomic, behavioral, and environmental data in relation to two health endpoints (preterm birth and low birth weight). A “tier 2” application develops estimates of pollutant mixture inhalation exposure indices for NCS counties, formulated to support risk characterization for these endpoints. Applications of TiER demonstrate the feasibility of developing risk‐relevant exposure characterizations for pollutants using extant environmental and demographic/socioeconomic data.     

A new estimator of proportion with a linear function using data from two-decks randomized response model

A new estimator for estimating the proportion of a potentially sensitive attribute in survey sampling has been introduced by solving a linear equation. The proposed estimator has been compared with the estimator proposed by Odumade and Singh (2009) with equal protection to all of the respondents. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator are investigated through exact numerical illustrations for different choices of parameters. A non randomized response approach has been suggested. A scope for further research has also been pointed out.