Loss functions for estimation of extrema with an application to disease mapping

It is often of interest to find the maximum or near maxima among a set of vector‐valued parameters in a statistical model; in the case of disease mapping, for example, these correspond to relative‐risk “hotspots” where public‐health intervention may be needed. The general problem is one of estimating nonlinear functions of the ensemble of relative risks, but biased estimates result if posterior means are simply substituted into these nonlinear functions. The authors obtain better estimates of extrema from a new, weighted ranks squared error loss function. The derivation of these Bayes estimators assumes a hidden‐Markov random‐field model for relative risks, and their behaviour is illustrated with real and simulated data.     

浅谈综合英语课中学生能力的培养

综合英语课是最具有中国特色的英语专业基础骨干课程。它课时多、周期长、影响大 ,是各门课程的龙头。如今 ,应试教育正向素质教育转轨 ,而能力培养则是核心内容。信息时代的综合英语课应该以培养学生能力为突破口 ,积极开创教学新局面 ,以期教学质量的提高     

反相集成电光调制器中共面波导的偏移效应

在实验室条件下，以ＬｉＮｂＯ３晶体为衬底，加工制作了各种不同程度的偏移性电极（共面波导），模拟光调制的反相结构。通过在微波频段下的实验研究．结果表明反相调制器共面波导偏移引起的微波传输损失是完全可以忽略的。     

Modelling map positional error to infer true feature location

The authors consider the issue of map positional error, or the difference between location as represented in a spatial database (i.e., a map) and the corresponding unobservable true location. They propose a fully model‐based approach that incorporates aspects of the map registration process commonly performed by users of geographic informations systems, including rubber‐sheeting. They explain how estimates of positional error can be obtained, hence estimates of true location. They show that with multiple maps of varying accuracy along with ground truthing data, suitable model averaging offers a strategy for using all of the maps to learn about true location.     

In Memoriam: Emeritus Professor Henry Oliver Lancaster, AO FAA 1 February 1913 – 2 December 2001

The death, in Sydney, of Oliver Lancaster marks the end of an era in the histories of the Statistical Society of Australia, which (in its previous existence as the Statistical Society of New South Wales) he helped found in 1947, and of the Australian Journal of Statistics of which he was founding editor (1959–1971). Oliver Lancaster was Foundation Professor of Mathematical Statistics at the University of Sydney (1959–1978), where he spent his life as student and academic. During his academic career, he achieved scholarly distinction in at least four fields: mathematical statistics, medical and public health statistics, the history of medicine and of statistics, and statistical bibliography. With E.J.G. Pitman (1897–1993), M.H. Belz (1897–1975), E.A. Cornish (1909–1973) and P.A.P. Moran (1917–1988) he was part of a cohort of renowned Australian mathematical statisticians who laid the foundation of the glory days of Australian mathematical statistics. This obituary and tribute focuses on some of these aspects, within a broader historical picture.     

旅游饭店人力资源开发初探

在分析当前旅游饭店人力资源现状及存在问题的基础上,探讨问题产生的深层原因,提出了相应的解决对策与措施。同时,对官、学、产一体化的人力资源开发模式进行了探讨。     

An evaluation of the childhood family structure measures from the sixth wave of the British Household Panel Survey

Summary.  The paper performs an evaluation of the data that were collected in the sixth wave of the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) on childhood family structure. After comparing such data with a large number of studies by using external sources, we find that the BHPS data overestimate the proportion of people who report an experience of life in a non-intact family during childhood by about 10%. Although an explanation based on recall error that deteriorates with the age of the BHPS respondents is possible, the overestimation is likely to be accounted for by non-ignorable attrition that may affect most of the comparison studies based on longitudinal data. Conversely, comparisons with other independent measurements from the BHPS itself reveal that the wave 6 data underestimate the proportion of young people who have lived at least part of their childhood in a non-intact family by about 8%. The probability of disagreement between these two sets of measures is strongly associated with poor interview characteristics, which may affect the comparison measure more than the wave 6 measure. Despite such differences, there is therefore a substantial degree of similarity between the family structure information that was collected in the sixth wave of the BHPS and the host of highly diverse records against which it has been compared.     

聚合物波导折射率渐变型Spot-size converter设计

围绕光致折射率变化聚甲基苯基硅烷高分子光波导，设计了新型的折射率渐变型Spot-size converter，可有效改善光纤与光波导的端面耦合效率．BPM仿真计算显示，耦合效率由78％提高到91％，为器件制备提供了理论依据．     

Improving on truncated linear estimates of exponential and gamma scale parameters

We consider the problem of estimating the scale parameter of an exponential or a gamma distribution under squared error loss when the scale parameter θ is known to be greater than some fixed value θ₀. Natural estimators in this setting include truncated linear functions of the sufficient statistic. Such estimators are typically inadmissible, but explicit improvements seem difficult to find. Some are presented here. A particularly interesting finding is that estimators which are admissible in the untruncated problem which take values only in the interior of the truncated parameter space are found to be inadmissible for the truncated problem.     

具有卖空总量限制的多阶段M—SAD投资组合优化

文章提出具有卖空总量限制、阈值约束和V型交易成本的多阶段均值—半绝对偏差（M-SAD）投资组合优化模型。该模型分别运用均值和半绝对偏衡量资产的收益率和风险。由于交易成本的存在,该模型不满足无后效性的动态优化问题。文章将该模型近似为一般动态规划问题,提出一种新的离散迭代方法,并证明该算法是线性收敛的。最后,文章通过实证研究比较分析卖空总量限制和风险偏好系数取不同值时对投资组合最优策略的影响,验证模型和算法的有效性。