邓小平总结反面经验的思想

邓小平在领导中国特色社会主义现代化建设实践中,重视反面经验的价值,不断结合形势发展需要正确总结反面经验,使反面经验成为宝贵的鉴戒资源,并在此基础上进行理性思考和理论创新。     

内在与超越——孔子中庸思想阐微

孔子思想中存在诸多二律背反式的冲突模式,比较突出的如天人冲突、礼仪冲突、德刑冲突、仕隐冲突。这些冲突关系中实含有相互依存、彼此互动的内涵。孔子通过“命”来调谐天与人的冲突,通过“诚”来达致礼与仪的统一,通过“仁”来实现德与刑的互补,通过“时”来决定仕与隐的抉择。孔子解决其思想中内心冲突的原则归根到底是他的中庸思想,“命”、“诚”、“仁”、“时”都只是中庸原则应用于不同类型的冲突模式所选取的具体超越路径。     

住房价格上涨与其影响因素之间的关系研究——基于VEC模型的实证分析

通过建立向量误差修正模型,对中国近年来住房价格持续上涨的原因进行了分析。结果表明,土地价格的快速上涨、金融对房地产业的过度支持以及在住房价格继续上涨预期刺激下的投机因素是中国住房价格上涨过快的主要原因。近年来中国住房价格的持续快速上涨在很大程度上是一种泡沫现象。     

Comparison of procedures for fitting the autoregressive order of a vector error correction model

This paper investigates the lag length selection problem of a vector error correction model by using a convergent information criterion and tools based on the Box–Pierce methodology recently proposed in the literature. The performances of these approaches for selecting the optimal lag length are compared via Monte Carlo experiments. The effects of misspecified deterministic trend or cointegrating rank on the lag length selection are studied. Noting that processes often exhibit nonlinearities, the cases of iid and conditionally heteroscedastic errors will be considered. Strategies that can avoid misleading situations are proposed.     

Modal non‐linear regression in the presence of Laplace measurement error

In this paper, we propose a robust estimation procedure for a class of non‐linear regression models when the covariates are contaminated with Laplace measurement error, aiming at constructing an estimation procedure for the regression parameters which are less affected by the possible outliers, and heavy‐tailed underlying distribution, as well as reducing the bias introduced by the measurement error. Starting with the modal regression procedure developed for the measurement error‐free case, a non‐trivial modification is made so that the modified version can effectively correct the potential bias caused by measurement error. Large sample properties of the proposed estimate, such as the convergence rate and the asymptotic normality, are thoroughly investigated. A simulation study and real data application are conducted to illustrate the satisfying finite sample performance of the proposed estimation procedure.     

An improved alternative estimation procedure for current population mean in presence of positively and negatively correlated auxiliary variables in two-occasion rotation patterns

Abstract

The present study confirms the influential role of a positively and a negatively correlated auxiliary variables in enhancing the precision of estimates of current population mean in two occasion rotation (successive) sampling. Exponential-type estimators of current population mean have been proposed for three different situations: (i) the information on a positively correlated auxiliary variable is readily available on both occasions (ii) the information on a negatively correlated auxiliary variable is readily available on both occasions and (iii) the information on both positively and negatively correlated auxiliary variables are readily available on both the occasions. The characteristics of the proposed estimators have been explored and their efficacious performances are compared with the natural and recent contemporary estimators. Optimum replacement strategies of the proposed estimation procedures have been formulated. Simulation and empirical studies are carried out to justify the proposition of the proposed estimators and appropriate recommendations have been put forward to the survey practitioners.     

减排约束下中国天然气供需安全评价:2006-2014年

为准确把握中国天然气供需安全状态,以2006-2014年的数据为样本,在模糊隶属度函数量化指标值的基础上,运用层次分析法(AHP)和熵值法确定指标权重,基于线性加权和函数计算均方根进行综合评价。结果表明:(1)中国天然气供需安全指数呈现"N形"波动,2006-2007年天然气供需安全指数上升。2007-2013年天然气供需安全指数年均下降1.7979。2013年以来天然气供需安全指数开始回升,天然气供需安全压力有所缓解。(2)天然气供应安全指数从2006年的17.5914下降到2013年的0.1556,峰谷差17.4359。天然气需求安全指数呈现"W形"波动。天然气市场安全指数相对稳定,2013年以来略有上升,天然气市场风险逐年下降。(3)天然气供需安全很大程度上取决于天然气供应是否安全。因此,建议从确保天然气稳定供应、提高天然气使用效率和降低市场风险方面采取措施,维护天然气供需安全。