企业行为与经济增长方式的转变

本文构建了一个企业技术升级的路径选择模型,该模型很好地解释了企业行为在经济增长方式转变中的作用。同时,论证了处于工业化中后期的经济体实现经济增长方式转变的必要性,并分析了增长方式转变的制约因素。企业的技术选择行为决定经济增长方式,企业选择技术进步的方式由产品间技术距离决定,技术距离的临界值大小与成本和价格的变化速度有关。相同的临界值条件下,创新导致的技术进步成功可能性更大。笔者提出了促进创新主导的经济增长方式的转变的相关政策建议。     

Answered Callings,Unanswered Callings,or No Calling: Examining a Nationally Representative Sample

Research suggests that workers with unanswered callings have poorer outcomes than those without callings; however, these studies have used small or homogeneous samples (Berg et al., 2010; Gazica & Spector, 2015). We aimed to replicate this finding using a nationally representative sample of 445 full-time workers. We compared key work and life criterion variables across three groups: individuals with answered callings, unanswered callings, and no calling at all. Results linked answered callings to benefits but, unlike earlier studies, suggested that unanswered callings were no worse than lacking a calling. These findings call into question the narrative that unanswered callings are associated with adverse effects, suggesting that career counselors may be able to facilitate discernment of a calling without having a negative impact on those for whom that calling goes unanswered. Research designed to test causal influences of these dynamics is an important next step for understanding the experiences of individuals with answered callings, unanswered callings, or no calling at all.     

The Rate of Convergence of some Asymptotic Expansions for Distribution Approximations via an Esseen Type Estimate

Some asymptotic expansions not necessarily related to the central limit theorem are studied. We first observe that the smoothing inequality of Esseen implies the proximity, in the Kolmogorov distance sense, of the distributions of the random variables of two random sequences satisfying a sort of general asymptotic relation. We then present several instances of this observation. A first example, partially motivated by the the statistical theory of high precision measurements, is given by a uniform asymptotic approximation to (g(X + μ _n )) _n∈?, where g is some smooth function, X is a random variable and (μ _n ) _n∈? is a sequence going to infinity; a multivariate version is also stated and proved. We finally present a second class of examples given by a randomization of the interesting parameter in some classical asymptotic formulas; namely, a generic Laplace's type integral, randomized by the sequence (μ _n X) _n∈?, X being a Gamma distributed random variable.     

Estimation procedures for grouped data – a comparative study

Interval-censored data are very common in the reliability and lifetime data analysis. This paper investigates the performance of different estimation procedures for a special type of interval-censored data, i.e. grouped data, from three widely used lifetime distributions. The approaches considered here include the maximum likelihood estimation, the minimum distance estimation based on chi-square criterion, the moment estimation based on imputation (IM) method and an ad hoc estimation procedure. Although IM-based techniques are extensively used recently, we show that this method is not always effective. It is found that the ad hoc estimation procedure is equivalent to the minimum distance estimation with another distance metric and more effective in the simulation. The procedures of different approaches are presented and their performances are investigated by Monte Carlo simulation for various combinations of sample sizes and parameter settings. The numerical results provide guidelines to analyse grouped data for practitioners when they need to choose a good estimation approach.     

Sensitivity analysis for variance parameters in Bayesian simplex mixed models for proportional data

In this article, we present a Bayesian modeling for response variables restricted to the interval (0, 1), such as proportions and rates, using the simplex distribution for cases in which data have a longitudinal form, taking random effects into account. In order to investigate the stability of posterior distribution, we study through sensitivity analysis, the effect of three different uniparametric prior distributions for variance parameters of random effect on the final estimation. For this purpose, we consider homogeneous and heterogeneous structures for parameters in location and dispersion submodels. Models and results are illustrated with simulated and real data application.     

Moment Independent Importance Measures: New Results and Analytical Test Cases

Moment independent methods for the sensitivity analysis of model output are attracting growing attention among both academics and practitioners. However, the lack of benchmarks against which to compare numerical strategies forces one to rely on ad hoc experiments in estimating the sensitivity measures. This article introduces a methodology that allows one to obtain moment independent sensitivity measures analytically. We illustrate the procedure by implementing four test cases with different model structures and model input distributions. Numerical experiments are performed at increasing sample size to check convergence of the sensitivity estimates to the analytical values.     

基于DEA和方向性距离函数的中国省际能源效率测度

基于全要素能源效率框架,利用数据包络分析(DEA)和方向性距离函数建立2类能源效率测度新模型,分析比较了2004～2008年中国29个省份、全国整体及三大区域的全要素能源效率和节能潜力;同时,在新模型的基础上,结合单要素能源效率和全要素能源效率,引入"目标能源强度"指标并测算了2004～2008我国各省份的能源强度效率。实证分析结果表明:中国能源效率整体水平较低,节能形势严峻,各省份、区域之间的能源效率差异显著,能源节约和产出增长还具有很大的潜力和空间,因此,提升科技实力,实现经济增长方式由"粗放型"向"集约型"转变仍然是中国今后相当长时期的战略重点。     

发展现代远程教育 促进河北学习型社会建设

文章在论述了现代远程教育的特点和学习型社会的特征,分析了我省现代远程教育发展现状的基础上,提出了发展现代远程教育,促进河北学习型社会建设的应着力抓好的几项工作。     

城市区位战略随交通变化的决策与实证分析

建立了交通与城市功能定位关系结构模型;改善了康威斯断裂点模型,以使其更具"动态性";同时定义了"时空距离",建立了交通条件变化对城市辐射范围影响的算法,以及城市功能定位的决策程序。对中国众多城市在新的交通环境条件下的重新定位具有方法上的借鉴作用。最后以重庆为例,提出了重庆在未来交通环境下城市的定位策略。