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11.
Göran Kauermann Renate Ortlieb 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics》2004,53(2):355-367
Summary. The pattern of absenteeism in the downsizing process of companies is a topic in focus in economics and social science. A general question is whether employees who are frequently absent are more likely to be selected to be laid off or in contrast whether employees to be dismissed are more likely to be absent for the remaining time of their working contract. We pursue an empirical and microeconomic investigation of these theses. We analyse longitudinal data that were collected in a German company over several years. We fit a semiparametric transition model based on a mixture Poisson distribution for the days of absenteeism per month. Prediction intervals are considered and the primary focus is on the period of downsizing. The data reveal clear evidence for the hypothesis that employees who are to be laid off are more frequently absent before leaving the company. Interestingly, though, no clear evidence is seen that employees being selected to leave the company are those with a bad absenteeism profile. 相似文献
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13.
刘雯霞 《武汉理工大学学报(社会科学版)》2003,16(2):140-144
犯罪概念 ,大致上可以分为形式概念、实质概念及混合概念。我国刑法第十三条规定的是犯罪的混合概念 ,这一混合概念存在着逻辑上的缺陷 ,欠缺明确性和可操作性。文章就如何更为科学地定义犯罪 ,完善我国刑法第十三条作了初步探讨 相似文献
14.
Statistik für bivariate gemischte Poisson–Prozesse am Beispiel der Kraftfahrthaftpflichtversicherung
Mathias Zocher 《Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv》2005,89(4):383-402
Zusammenfassung: In diesem Artikel wird der Weg von einem univariaten gemischten Poisson–Prozess, der in vielen Bereichen zum Z?hlen von Ereignissen
benutzt wird, zu einem bivariaten gemischten Poisson–Prozess aufgezeigt. Dazu werden einige Eigenschaften des bivariaten Prozesses
angegeben. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit wird gezeigt, wie mit Hilfe dieses Prozesses der übergang von einem herk?mmlichen Bonus–Malus–System
in der Kraftfahrthaftpflichtversicherung zu einem Bonus–Malus–System mit Berücksichtigung der Schadenart beschritten werden
kann. Dazu wird zuerst eine Modellprüfung der gegebenen Daten vorgenommen und sodann werden für verschiedene mischende Verteilungen
die Verteilungsparameter gesch?tzt und Nettopr?mien angegeben sowie die Prognosegenauigkeit getestet.
Summary: In this paper we show that the model of the bivariate mixed Poisson process arises in a natural way from the univariate mixed Poisson process, which is used in several areas for counting certain events. Furthermore we state some properties of the bivariate process. In the second part of the paper we illustrate how by means of the bivariate mixed Poisson process a bonus–malus system handling different types of accidents can be derived from the classical bonus–malus system in third–party liability insurance. To this end we first check the model on the given data and then estimate distribution parameters and compute net premiums for different mixing distributions as well as test the prediction probabilities.
* Vortrag am Dresdner Forum zur Versicherungsmathematik: Tarifierung in Erst- und Rückversicherung am 25. Juni 2004. Für die Unterstützung zu dieser Arbeit m?chte der Autor Lothar Partzsch, Klaus D. Schmidt (beide Dresden) und Friedemann Spies (München) recht herzlich danken. 相似文献
15.
王百玲 《山东农业大学学报(社会科学版)》2002,4(2):80-82
思维是写作过程运思阶段的核心 ,应用文的语言和结构是思维的外化形式 ,应用文体有特殊的语篇思维模式 ,本文认为大部分应用文体呈现出直线型语篇思维模式 ;并探讨了应用写作实践中常见的语篇思维模式的特点及相关思维能力的培养 相似文献
16.
Annual concentrations of toxic air contaminants are of primary concern from the perspective of chronic human exposure assessment and risk analysis. Despite recent advances in air quality monitoring technology, resource and technical constraints often impose limitations on the availability of a sufficient number of ambient concentration measurements for performing environmental risk analysis. Therefore, sample size limitations, representativeness of data, and uncertainties in the estimated annual mean concentration must be examined before performing quantitative risk analysis. In this paper, we discuss several factors that need to be considered in designing field-sampling programs for toxic air contaminants and in verifying compliance with environmental regulations. Specifically, we examine the behavior of SO2, TSP, and CO data as surrogates for toxic air contaminants and as examples of point source, area source, and line source-dominated pollutants, respectively, from the standpoint of sampling design. We demonstrate the use of bootstrap resampling method and normal theory in estimating the annual mean concentration and its 95% confidence bounds from limited sampling data, and illustrate the application of operating characteristic (OC) curves to determine optimum sample size and other sampling strategies. We also outline a statistical procedure, based on a one-sided t-test, that utilizes the sampled concentration data for evaluating whether a sampling site is compliance with relevant ambient guideline concentrations for toxic air contaminants. 相似文献
17.
THOMAS RICHARDSON 《Scandinavian Journal of Statistics》2003,30(1):145-157
We consider acyclic directed mixed graphs, in which directed edges ( x → y ) and bi-directed edges ( x ↔ y ) may occur. A simple extension of Pearl's d -separation criterion, called m -separation, is applied to these graphs. We introduce a local Markov property which is equivalent to the global property resulting from the m -separation criterion for arbitrary distributions. 相似文献
18.
A Sparse Implementation of the Average Information Algorithm for Factor Analytic and Reduced Rank Variance Models 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Robin Thompson Brian Cullis Alison Smith Arthur Gilmour 《Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics》2003,45(4):445-459
Factor analytic variance models have been widely considered for the analysis of multivariate data particularly in the psychometrics area. Recently Smith, Cullis & Thompson (2001) have considered their use in the analysis of multi‐environment data arising from plant improvement programs. For these data, the size of the problem and the complexity of the variance models chosen to account for spatial heterogeneity within trials implies that standard algorithms for fitting factor analytic models can be computationally expensive. This paper presents a sparse implementation of the average information algorithm (Gilmour, Thompson & Cullis, 1995) for fitting factor analytic and reduced rank variance models. 相似文献
19.
将整系数多项式 0 - 1混合整规划问题化成无约束多项式规划问题。通过解该问题 ,能得到原问题的近似解。处理方法的特点是能够直接处理不等式约束情形 ,而不需要先将不等式约束化成等式约束再来处理 相似文献
20.
The authors extend the block external bootstrap to partially linear regression models with strongly mixing, nonstationary error terms. In addition to providing an approximate distribution for the semiparametric least square estimator of the parametric component, they propose a consistent estimator of the co‐variance matrix of this estimator. 相似文献