国际基督教工会联合会与早期欧洲一体化

第二次世界大战后 ,作为欧洲压力集团之一的基督教工会通过其国际组织———国际基督教工会联合会 ,以个人活动和参与欧洲机构正式协商机制的方式 ,试图在欧洲早期一体化进程中维护基督教工会和工人的权利及利益。该组织的活动虽然取得了一定成就 ,但从总体上讲 ,其对欧洲经济政治一体化的影响仍然十分有限     

Human Salmonellosis: Estimation of Dose-Illness from Outbreak Data

The quantification of the relationship between the amount of microbial organisms ingested and a specific outcome such as infection, illness, or mortality is a key aspect of quantitative risk assessment. A main problem in determining such dose-response models is the availability of appropriate data. Human feeding trials have been criticized because only young healthy volunteers are selected to participate and low doses, as often occurring in real life, are typically not considered. Epidemiological outbreak data are considered to be more valuable, but are more subject to data uncertainty. In this article, we model the dose-illness relationship based on data of 20 Salmonella outbreaks, as discussed by the World Health Organization. In particular, we model the dose-illness relationship using generalized linear mixed models and fractional polynomials of dose. The fractional polynomial models are modified to satisfy the properties of different types of dose-illness models as proposed by Teunis et al . Within these models, differences in host susceptibility (susceptible versus normal population) are modeled as fixed effects whereas differences in serovar type and food matrix are modeled as random effects. In addition, two bootstrap procedures are presented. A first procedure accounts for stochastic variability whereas a second procedure accounts for both stochastic variability and data uncertainty. The analyses indicate that the susceptible population has a higher probability of illness at low dose levels when the combination pathogen-food matrix is extremely virulent and at high dose levels when the combination is less virulent. Furthermore, the analyses suggest that immunity exists in the normal population but not in the susceptible population.     

Applicability of a Neuroprobabilistic Integral Risk Index for the Environmental Management of Polluted Areas: A Case Study

Recently, we developed a GIS-Integrated Integral Risk Index (IRI) to assess human health risks in areas with presence of environmental pollutants. Contaminants were previously ranked by applying a self-organizing map (SOM) to their characteristics of persistence, bioaccumulation, and toxicity in order to obtain the Hazard Index (HI). In the present study, the original IRI was substantially improved by allowing the entrance of probabilistic data. A neuroprobabilistic HI was developed by combining SOM and Monte Carlo analysis. In general terms, the deterministic and probabilistic HIs followed a similar pattern: polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and light polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were the pollutants showing the highest and lowest values of HI, respectively. However, the bioaccumulation value of heavy metals notably increased after considering a probability density function to explain the bioaccumulation factor. To check its applicability, a case study was investigated. The probabilistic integral risk was calculated in the chemical/petrochemical industrial area of Tarragona (Catalonia, Spain), where an environmental program has been carried out since 2002. The risk change between 2002 and 2005 was evaluated on the basis of probabilistic data of the levels of various pollutants in soils. The results indicated that the risk of the chemicals under study did not follow a homogeneous tendency. However, the current levels of pollution do not mean a relevant source of health risks for the local population. Moreover, the neuroprobabilistic HI seems to be an adequate tool to be taken into account in risk assessment processes.     

Risk,trust and knowledge networks in farmers’ learning

This study reports on New Zealand dairy farmers’ access to and use of information as mediated through conditions of risk and trust within the context of their interpersonal social networks. We located participants’ reports of their information use within their perceived environments of trust and risk, following Giddens's [1990. The consequences of modernity. Polity Press, Stanford, CA] typology of trust and risk in pre-modernity and modernity. The research participants were constant users of interpersonal and print information from numerous sources, and monitored their incoming data in the light of strategic needs, reflecting their roles as both farming practitioners and business owners. Socio-spatial knowledge networks (SSKNs) combine individuals’ explanatory cognitive models of information acquisition and use with a micro-geographical analysis of their interpersonal networks. The participants showed characteristics of pre-modern, modern and even post-modern society in respect of their use of complex interactional forms, as well as a blending of individualistic and communitarian practices and concerns in their professional and personal lives.     

矩阵方程XA＝B的亚（半）正定自共轭四元数矩阵解

给出了四元数体Ｑ上ｎ×ｎ分块矩阵为亚（半）正定自共轭矩阵的一个充要条件，进而给出了Ｑ上矩阵方程ＸＡｎｍ＝Ｂｎｍ有亚（半）正定自共轭四元数矩阵解的充要条件及解集合的显式表示，从而推广改进了数城上线性方程组的反问题及矩阵反问题的相应结果．     

基于平衡计分卡的政府传统行政模式的转型

以传统政府模式转型成“企业化政府”模式为典型,把已经在企业内部取得瞩目成就的平衡计分卡管理模式引入“企业化政府”管理模式,增强政府改革的可行性和有效性。     

中小企业发展与融资体系的构建

中小企业在其不同的发展阶段面临着不同的融资需求。文章以金融支持为主线,先从宏观层面上考察了企业融资结构分别对宏观经济波动和企业融资体系的影响,再从微观角度出发,试图在对中小企业各发展过程中融资行为、融资约束、融资结构等的分析中探求其“融资难”之所在。最后再依据我国的现实国情,并结合发达国家先进经验,探讨我国中小企业融资体系的构建。     

ADDITIVE MODELS WITH PREDICTORS SUBJECT TO MEASUREMENT ERROR

This paper develops a likelihood‐based method for fitting additive models in the presence of measurement error. It formulates the additive model using the linear mixed model representation of penalized splines. In the presence of a structural measurement error model, the resulting likelihood involves intractable integrals, and a Monte Carlo expectation maximization strategy is developed for obtaining estimates. The method's performance is illustrated with a simulation study.     

平教会定县实验中的农村卫生工作之考察

中华平民教育促进会定县实验区在二十世纪三十年代创立了一套由村保健员、乡保健所、县保健院组成的三级卫生保健网,并在学校卫生、妇婴保健、传染病预防和疾病治疗等方面做出了显著的成绩,在当时产生了广泛的影响,对我们今天来说仍值得借鉴。     

物流的定义及其他——与王槐林、刘明菲先生商榷

物流的定义多种多样,林林总总,但都没有把生产过程包括到物流的活动中,只有王槐林、刘明菲先生主编的《物流管理学》却把生产活动当作物流的重要内容之一,并概括在物流的定义之中。这种观点如果成立,将给有关理论和实践造成很大混乱。