Improved Monte Carlo inference for models with additive error

Some statistical models defined in terms of a generating stochastic mechanism have intractable distribution theory, which renders parameter estimation difficult. However, a Monte Carlo estimate of the log-likelihood surface for such a model can be obtained via computation of nonparametric density estimates from simulated realizations of the model. Unfortunately, the bias inherent in density estimation can cause bias in the resulting log-likelihood estimate that alters the location of its maximizer. In this paper a methodology for radically reducing this bias is developed for models with an additive error component. An illustrative example involving a stochastic model of molecular fragmentation and measurement is given.     

我国城市家庭养老与社区养老服务

养老是解决中国老龄问题的基础和核心问题。在我国城市,家庭养老仍然是目前主要的养老形式。但在今天,家庭养老面临挑战,家庭养老功能减弱,急需发挥社会养老的功能,其中,社区养老服务是社会养老的重要载体。加强社区在老年人的经济支持、生活照顾和精神慰藉方面的养老功能,既可保持家庭养老的传统和优点,又能弥补家庭养老不足。     

从《摩奴法典》婚烟家庭法看古印度的法文化

《摩奴法典》是古印度后吠陀时期权威性的法典①,它是古印度社会历史沉淀的产物。从《摩奴法典》的婚姻家庭法中折射出的古印度法文化代表着这一时期法文化的共同特征。以法典的婚姻家庭法为视角,对这一时期古印度的法文化的特点以及各特点的形成原因、表现和社会影响作一分析,便于我们更深刻的了解古印度法系和法文化     

传统婚姻家庭观的反叛与重塑——试析当代大学生婚姻家庭观念的嬗变

改革开放后的中国正处于社会转型期,物质和精神领域都在发生着巨大的变化。当代大学生是在社会转型时期成长起来的一代,透过他们的婚姻家庭现可以折射出这个时代的特征,某种程度上也可以反映出未来相当长的一段时期内中国知识分子阶层中婚姻家庭的状况和趋势。     

对我国城市女性遭遇家庭暴力问题的再思考

从社会普遍关注的城市女性遭遇家庭暴力这个视角出发,分析和归纳了城市女性家庭暴力的含义、特征、危害,揭示了城市女性家庭暴力问题产生的主要原因,提出了预防和制止城市女性家庭暴力的对策和建议。     

我国农村人口出生性别比偏高的动力机制研究

B超的滥用、强烈的男孩偏好以及对非法流产行为监控的失效共同构成我国出生性别比偏高的充要条件,三者中任一条件不满足都不可能出现出生性别比偏高。尽管B超发明和滥用前出生性别比并没有异常,但也不能说出生性别比偏高与受教育水平、传统文化等因素无关。事实上,这些因素通过影响男孩偏好和B超的可获得性而影响出生性别比。由此出发,促进出生性别比回复正常,短期内应标本兼治,以治标为主———坚决禁止B超的滥用,关键是加强立法和管理;长期内则必须治本———消除男孩偏好,关键是加速农村城市化。     

An evaluation of the childhood family structure measures from the sixth wave of the British Household Panel Survey

Summary.  The paper performs an evaluation of the data that were collected in the sixth wave of the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) on childhood family structure. After comparing such data with a large number of studies by using external sources, we find that the BHPS data overestimate the proportion of people who report an experience of life in a non-intact family during childhood by about 10%. Although an explanation based on recall error that deteriorates with the age of the BHPS respondents is possible, the overestimation is likely to be accounted for by non-ignorable attrition that may affect most of the comparison studies based on longitudinal data. Conversely, comparisons with other independent measurements from the BHPS itself reveal that the wave 6 data underestimate the proportion of young people who have lived at least part of their childhood in a non-intact family by about 8%. The probability of disagreement between these two sets of measures is strongly associated with poor interview characteristics, which may affect the comparison measure more than the wave 6 measure. Despite such differences, there is therefore a substantial degree of similarity between the family structure information that was collected in the sixth wave of the BHPS and the host of highly diverse records against which it has been compared.     

历史小说：在家庭文化的认同与互动之间

家庭文化对于历史小说家的审美趣味和历史观念具有重要影响,家学传统给予历史小说家的文化熏陶对于历史小说写作具有重要意义,情感的苦乐体验使作家对历史小说如何以史鉴今重塑中国文化和民族精神有着独特理解,但家庭文化的负面因素也造成了历史小说的缺憾和不足。     

视频在IP网络中传输的质量研究

利用MEPEG-4视频TRACE作为输入源,通过分析MPEG-4视频的帧特性,提出了一种针对视频质量的网络传输服务质量保证机制;搭建了视频传输的仿真系统,分析了视频在网络传输中的特性,利用PSNR作为视频质量的衡量标准,在有服务质量保证和无服务质量保证机制的两种网络环境下做了仿真并比较结果,证明了提出的方法能有效提高视频质量．     

Using a computer simulation game to teach family time use concepts

A computer simulation game designed to give students insights into family time use concepts has been used in an introductory family resource management class at Ohio State University and other universities. The game allows for planning for time use changes over the family life cycle. The game can give students insights into economic and sociological models of time use. It is possible that future versions of the game could be used in family counseling.His research interests include derivation of optimal decision-making rules for families and family financial management.Her research interests include financial management over the life course including financial ratios, baby boomers, and retirement. She received her Ph.D. in 1993 from The Ohio State University in Family Resource Management.His research interests include the time trade-offs made between couples, financial planning over the life cycle, and the interaction of time and money between families and their home-based businesses. He received his Ph.D. in 1993 from The Ohio State University in Family Resource Management.