Generalized Self-Consistency: Multinomial logit model and Poisson likelihood

A generalized self-consistency approach to maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and model building was developed in Tsodikov [2003. Semiparametric models: a generalized self-consistency approach. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B Statist. Methodology 65(3), 759–774] and applied to a survival analysis problem. We extend the framework to obtain second-order results such as information matrix and properties of the variance. Multinomial model motivates the paper and is used throughout as an example. Computational challenges with the multinomial likelihood motivated Baker [1994. The Multinomial–Poisson transformation. The Statist. 43, 495–504] to develop the Multinomial–Poisson (MP) transformation for a large variety of regression models with multinomial likelihood kernel. Multinomial regression is transformed into a Poisson regression at the cost of augmenting model parameters and restricting the problem to discrete covariates. Imposing normalization restrictions by means of Lagrange multipliers [Lang, J., 1996. On the comparison of multinomial and Poisson log-linear models. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B Statist. Methodology 58, 253–266] justifies the approach. Using the self-consistency framework we develop an alternative solution to multinomial model fitting that does not require augmenting parameters while allowing for a Poisson likelihood and arbitrary covariate structures. Normalization restrictions are imposed by averaging over artificial “missing data” (fake mixture). Lack of probabilistic interpretation at the “complete-data” level makes the use of the generalized self-consistency machinery essential.     

“双元结构”下的概念转换

由于中国成年人在学习外语时有"双元结构"的存在,因而造成了成年人在进行语义理解时对不同语言的不同原型不能理解和转换,这时就需要借助概念进行转换,而在概念转换时激活不同文化模式下认知域,从而达到匹配语义、理解语义的目的,当不能匹配时,就需文化的介入,进而完成概念转换.     

先进文化和中国文学的文化转型

由于改革开放以后经济模式的转变,中国社会正处于转型阶段。从先秦时代就传承而下的中国传统文化先进观念——现实观、平等观和大同观对中国文学产生了巨大的影响,并将指导中国文学走出文化转型的困境。     

Estimation method of multivariate exponential probabilities based on a simplex coordinates transform

A novel unbiased estimator for estimating the probability mass of a multivariate exponential distribution over a measurable set is introduced and is called the exponential simplex (ES) estimator. For any measurable set and given sample size, the statistical efficiency of the ES estimator is higher than or equal to the statistical efficiency of the well-known Monte Carlo (MC) estimator. For non-radially shaped measurable sets, the ES estimator has a strictly higher statistical efficiency than the MC estimator. For ray-convex sets, such as convex sets, the ES estimator can be expressed in a simple analytical form.     

On the Ghoudi,Khoudraji, and Rivest test for extreme‐value dependence

Ghoudi, Khoudraji & Rivest [The Canadian Journal of Statistics 1998;26:187–197] showed how to test whether the dependence structure of a pair of continuous random variables is characterized by an extreme‐value copula. The test is based on a U‐statistic whose finite‐ and large‐sample variance are determined by the present authors. They propose estimates of this variance which they compare to the jackknife estimate of Ghoudi, Khoudraji & Rivest ( 1998 ) through simulations. They study the finite‐sample and asymptotic power of the test under various alternatives. They illustrate their approach using financial and geological data. The Canadian Journal of Statistics © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

深圳特区制度的历史实证分析及未来展望

本文以新制度经济学的相关理论为基础，分析深圳特区制度的形成过程，提出了深圳制度优势形成的特点，即由国家政策、地缘优势和移民城市构成的制度形成模式。然后通过对政府效率的实证分析，说明深圳与国内其他城市相比，确实存在制度优势。同时，也指出深圳在制度变迁过程中存在的一些不足及原因。本文认为，今后深圳应该在原有的制度形成模式基础上，建立以完善社会主义市场经济体制试验区为目标的制度框架，以继续发挥特区的制度优势，顺利实现城市发展转型。     

Better Articulating Normal Curve Theory for Introductory Mathematical Statistics Students: Power Transformations and Their Back-Transformations

This article addresses a gap in many, if not all, introductory mathematical statistics textbooks, namely, transforming a random variable so that it better mimics a normal distribution. Virtually all such textbooks treat the subject of variable transformations, which furnishes a nice opportunity to introduce and study this transformation-to-normality topic, a topic students frequently encounter in subsequent applied statistics courses. Accordingly, this article reviews variable power transformations of the Box–Cox type within the context of normal curve theory, as well as addresses their corresponding back-transformations. It presents four theorems and a conjecture that furnish the basics needed to derive equivalent results for all nonnegative values of the Box–Cox power transformation exponent. Results are illustrated with the exponential random variable. This article also includes selected pedagogic tools created with R code.     

文明转型时期的中国理论思维建设

工业文明是第一个影响和支配了全世界的人类文明形态，但不是所有民族共享的文明形态。信息—生态文明将是全人类共享的第一个文明形态。现在，人类正处于从工业文明向信息—生态文明转变的历史时期。在这次文明转型中，如何规划我国的理论思维建设极为重要。我们必须以建设信息—生态文明为参照系，重新解读马克思，解读当代世界的实际演进，重读、改造和发展我们的传统文化     

近代中国知识分子思想转型问题研究

近代中国知识分子的思想转型是将前近代时期士大夫的生命形态作为参照系的,该参照系的主要内容是士大夫在政治上的最高理想为充当帝师王佐,功名意识乃普遍的价值观念,经济观念核心是重农抑商,并进而形成文化优越感、保守拒变心态、"夷夏之辨"的世界观,且陷入空疏无用的"学问"之争中不能自拔,于社会民生毫无裨益。近代中国知识分子思想转型集中体现在三个方面:政治方面,带有悲剧、迷茫色彩的忧患意识;经济方面,以重科技发展实业为核心的经济意识;文化方面,中西地位反向互换的文化意识。这种作为一种质变过程同时更多地体现为量的累积的转型乃是一条痛苦而漫长的人生旅路。     

浅谈社会转型进程中东北地区职业教育发展契机

新世纪,东北地区面临着高级技工缺乏的事实,从而给职业教育发展带来了契机,包括国家振兴东北的政策为东北地区职业教育的发展提供的历史契机,国企深入改革和地区社会转型给东北地区职业教育发展带来的契机;国家就业政策的改变和政府对人才结构调整的重视给职业教育的发展带来的契机;观念转变对职业教育功能进行重新审视带来的契机;"入世"的宏观环境变化引发了对东北地区职业教育的巨大需求的契机;高等教育大众化内在地要求人才多样化的契机。把握契机,培养高级技工,需要领导的重视,需要完善技术等级制度,需要建立技工劳动力供求市场。