渐进过程中的政府职能转变:价值、动因与阻力

在现代社会,作为工具性的政府是建立在合目的性的基础上的,是产生于社会并服务于社会的组织体;政治越发展,政府就越能增进与实现公共利益。因而,公共性是现代政府的价值追求,在转变政府职能过程中,不能违背、侵蚀这一价值定位。在转型的中国,政府存在并运转于一定的空间中,具体的政治、经济、文化等要素集结成一定层级政府的任务环境,它们形成了推动政府职能转变的强大动力,也影响着政府职能转变的效度。政府职能转变之所以步履维艰、过程之所以呈现出渐进的特征,一个非常重要的原因在于它受到来自政府、市场和社会等多重因素的影响:全能政府的惯性、职责同构的弊端、市场质量的影响和社会发育的迟缓以及现实利益的阻隔。政府职能的转变不仅取决于政府自身的作为,市场质量、社会组织的自组织力也是影响其效度的重要函数。因而,在相当长的时间里,政府职能转变仍然会是行政改革中的重要议题。     

道路转换与村寨社会变迁——以汶川县羌锋村的民族志考察为例

阿坝州汶川县羌锋村为“西羌第一村”,途经该村寨的道路数次转变。长时段来看,羌锋村经历了灌松古道、现代道路两种不同的道路类型,其中现代道路又可分为成阿公路、国道213线、都汶高速三个不同时期出现的三种现代道路。不同阶段道路的演变均发生在特定时代背景下,继而引起了村落不同层面的社会变迁。道路的连通疏通了地区间的隔离,打开了羌锋村与外界交流的大门,扩大了羌锋村与外界沟通的范围,村寨社会发生变迁的涉及面也愈发广泛,村落重塑的效果也逐步显著。     

Regression analysis of informative current status data with the semiparametric linear transformation model

Many methods have been developed in the literature for regression analysis of current status data with noninformative censoring and also some approaches have been proposed for semiparametric regression analysis of current status data with informative censoring. However, the existing approaches for the latter situation are mainly on specific models such as the proportional hazards model and the additive hazard model. Corresponding to this, in this paper, we consider a general class of semiparametric linear transformation models and develop a sieve maximum likelihood estimation approach for the inference. In the method, the copula model is employed to describe the informative censoring or relationship between the failure time of interest and the censoring time, and Bernstein polynomials are used to approximate the nonparametric functions involved. The asymptotic consistency and normality of the proposed estimators are established, and an extensive simulation study is conducted and indicates that the proposed approach works well for practical situations. In addition, an illustrative example is provided.     

Exponentiated generalized Pareto distribution: Properties and applications towards extreme value theory

The GPD is a central distribution in modelling heavy tails in many applications. Applying the GPD to actual datasets however is not trivial. In this paper we propose the Exponentiated GPD (exGPD), created via log-transform of the GPD variable, which has less sample variability. Various distributional quantities of the exGPD are derived analytically. As an application we also propose a new plot based on the exGPD as an alternative to the Hill plot to identify the tail index of heavy tailed datasets, and carry out simulation studies to compare the two.     

我国刑事被害人权利救济的理论研究与司法实践

我国刑事被害人权利救济问题,从理论研究来看,我国学者多视角、全方位地进行了系统的研究并取得了一定的成果。从立法规定看,我国的刑事诉讼法及刑法为刑事被害人的权利救济提供了法律依据。而从司法实践来看,被害人的权利救济却远不尽人意,在被害人权利的实现上仍存在一些问题。随着我国和谐社会的发展,司法实践中对被害人经济求偿权的实现也做了一些有益尝试,如刑事和解、国家补偿和社会援助等,这些活动为我国刑事被害人权利救济问题的解决提供了实践经验。     

Simpson's Paradox in Survival Models

Abstract.  In the context of survival analysis it is possible that increasing the value of a covariate X has a beneficial effect on a failure time, but this effect is reversed when conditioning on any possible value of another covariate Y . When studying causal effects and influence of covariates on a failure time, this state of affairs appears paradoxical and raises questions about the real effect of X . Situations of this kind may be seen as a version of Simpson's paradox. In this paper, we study this phenomenon in terms of the linear transformation model. The introduction of a time variable makes the paradox more interesting and intricate: it may hold conditionally on a certain survival time, i.e. on an event of the type { T > t } for some but not all t , and it may hold only for some range of survival times.     

Deconvolution boundary kernel method in nonparametric density estimation

This paper considers the nonparametric deconvolution problem when the true density function is left (or right) truncated. We propose to remove the boundary effect of the conventional deconvolution density estimator by using a special class of kernels: the deconvolution boundary kernels. Methods for constructing such kernels are provided. The mean squared error properties, including the rates of convergence, are investigated for supersmooth and ordinary smooth errors. Numerical simulations show that the deconvolution boundary kernel estimator successfully removes the boundary effects of the conventional deconvolution density estimator.     

社会改造的理想与政治稳定的现实——二十年来大陆社区建设的一般分析与发展进路

社区建设是现代社会发展需要的反映,是社会管理与控制向社会治理与服务迈进的必然要求和具体体现。社区建设运动契合了社会发展的客观规律和趋势,蕴含着深刻的社会发展理念,也寄托着政府改造社会的理想。但由于政府开展社区建设的初衷和直接目的是解决社会转型和体制转轨中的社会问题,并非基于对社会发展规律的清醒把握和自觉追求,在政治稳定的框架内实现社会改造的理想面临着重重矛盾,举步维艰。新农村建设为陷于尴尬和彷徨中的城市社区建设提供了重生和质变的契机。     

史学：在主观与客观之间——从顾颉刚难题到层累说的变型

如何在现代学术立场上,证明古书、古史的真伪是史学理论研究的重要课题,从“顾颉刚难题”到“汉代改造说”、“古代文献不断重写”,层累理论不断发展,我们对此进行了深入剖析。今天的史学研究中有把王国维和顾颉刚刻意对立起来的倾向,其实他们活着的时候也不是这样。二重证据法和层累说应当结合起来,用二重证据法探讨古史真相,用层累说积极的一面,研究传说演变,那么,我们古史研究又会是一番新的景象。     

努力构建公共财政框架积极推进财政职能转换

公共财政体系是我国财政改革的目标.随着经济体制的改革不断深入,原有财政体系统越来越不适应经济发展的要求,因此财政职能应尽快转换,即要客观介定支出范围,增加有效公共产品的提供;完善社会收入分配体制和社会保障体系,加强调整收入分配;规范市场,加强客观调控;建立规范的财政收入体系.